01-04-2002 04:18									#1
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Franz Ferdinand is never shot. Major changes or no difference?

Why?

	01-04-2002 04:41									#2
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No real changes. WWI could have just as easily started in 1908 or 1913, and I'm sure there would have been a crisis in 1917 or 1920 to set everyone off. Once it starts you have the same general turn of events: stalemate in the west and Russian collapse in the east. The only major variable I can think of is when/if the US decides to intervene.

	01-04-2002 05:03									#3
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No major changes... WW1 happens either later 1914 or in 1915, by some crisis.

	01-04-2002 05:49									#4
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War begins by 1918, the longer before war, the more powerful Germany is going into it, and the better they do. They'd still probably lose, with US intervention, but it would have been a longer, harder war, and air power would have played more of a role. Russia obviouysly wouldn't have collapsed as early as it did, but would have eventually.

	01-04-2002 08:43									#5
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The Brooklynn Dodgers would have won the pennant, instead of the NY Giants. And they would have lost the World Series.... as usual.

	01-04-2002 09:10									#6
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Anyone think that Russia might have had a communist inspired civil war by 1918 or 20 that would have allowed even a wimpy German general to implement the Schliffen plan as it was designed?

As I'm sure most of you know, Schliffen planed to use 90% of mobile forces in the right hook to Paris. In fact only 60% were used, and Paris almost fell. I forget the guy's name that screwed it up, but it has been said that a German victory in WW1 would have save the world a steaming heap of trouble, and victory would have resulted from a full right hook.

Trouble being, WW2, the death camps, the cold war with half of europe under the thumb of the soviets, the nuclear arms race, etc...

	01-04-2002 09:14									#7
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I firmly believe that Europe wanted to go to war. They even thought they'd have fun at it. Doesn't seem like there was a peacenik constituency.

So until the European powers were disabused of these foolhardy notions, the situation was always unstable...

	01-04-2002 09:33									#8
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WWI would not happen. colonialism would last longer but end more smoothly. Romantic ideals (good and bad) would endure. Russia would not become Communist. US would continue same economic trajectory but be a more quiet world player until 1970's. World would be way better off.

	01-04-2002 09:39									#9
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What a nice, optimistic view GP.

Serbs eh?

	01-04-2002 09:43									#10
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quote: WWI would not happen

I doubt that. Europe was aching for a pissing contest by that point. Increased German ambition and French antipathy would have done the job in the end.

	01-04-2002 09:44									#11
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quote: Originally posted by Lancer Anyone think that Russia might have had a communist inspired civil war by 1918 or 20 that would have allowed even a wimpy German general to implement the Schliffen plan as it was designed? As I'm sure most of you know, Schliffen planed to use 90% of mobile forces in the right hook to Paris. In fact only 60% were used, and Paris almost fell. I forget the guy's name that screwed it up, but it has been said that a German victory in WW1 would have save the world a steaming heap of trouble, and victory would have resulted from a full right hook. Trouble being, WW2, the death camps, the cold war with half of europe under the thumb of the soviets, the nuclear arms race, etc...

The Schlieffen plan was brilliant, but it made two major assumptions that caused it to fail.

A) It assumed British neutrality.
B) It assumed US neutrality.

but it was otherwise a damn good plan, and a solid one at that. Damn limeys and yanks, always ruining : points to avatar : 'our' fun

	01-04-2002 09:48									#12
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Orange, in my view it didn't fail because it was never really
implemented. If it had gone off as Schlieffen had drawn it up, I believe it would have worked. France would have been KOed, the BEF destroyed in the process, and the war over long before the US joined.

	01-04-2002 09:54									#13
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quote: Originally posted by Lancer Orange, in my view it didn't fail because it was never really implemented. If it had gone off as Schlieffen had drawn it up, I believe it would have worked. France would have been KOed, the BEF destroyed in the process, and the war over long before the US joined.

That is possible, but consider that French was stronger during WWI than it was going into WWII, comparative with the other nations. The resistance would have been MUCH stronger. Despite how we all like to joke about France surrendering, it's obvious that the staggering losses from World War I are a very high factor in why they surrendered in WWII. So even if the Germans could encircle Paris while containing the attack in the Vosges, they still would not have defeated France. Though I do agree that the longer the preparations for war went on (IE, the longer the war was postponded) the stronger Germany would have been, and the weaker Russia would have been. So I'm not ruling out your proposition, I'm only saying that the plan did have obvious flaws. I'd agree that, when implemented correctly, it had the capability of taking Paris, but not winning the war altogether. Not in 1914 anyway.

	01-04-2002 09:55									#14
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quote: Originally posted by KrazyHorse I doubt that. Europe was aching for a pissing contest by that point. Increased German ambition and French antipathy would have done the job in the end.

Yeah...but y'all all said that. I gotta go against the grain...

	01-04-2002 09:57									#15
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The assassination of Franz Ferdinand was a result of unresolved problems and tensions within the Austrian-Hungarian Empire, with its dual monarchy government.

There would been some other crisis I'm sure, that would have culiminated from the resentment of imperial rule over the Serbs, Croats, Bosnians, and among others.

So I think World War I would have definitely occurred around the same time period.

	01-04-2002 10:03									#16
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quote: Originally posted by GP Yeah...but y'all all said that. I gotta go against the grain...

Hippie.

	01-04-2002 10:06									#17
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We're all ignoring the blindingly obvious evidence that WWI was directly responsible for distracting Mongo, Lord of the Mole People, from his plans to invade the surface with his diamond lance bearing Mole Warriors.

	01-04-2002 10:09									#18
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You've been spending too much time on Yonge street, dearie.

	01-04-2002 10:11									#19
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The interesting thing would be if there was another president in power in the USA before WWI had started. If that president was unwilling to go to war, things could have been different.

	01-04-2002 10:14									#20
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quote: Originally posted by Starchild We're all ignoring the blindingly obvious evidence that WWI was directly responsible for distracting Mongo, Lord of the Mole People, from his plans to invade the surface with his diamond lance bearing Mole Warriors.

well now that's an odd way of describing the moroccan crisises

	01-04-2002 10:16									#21
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quote: Originally posted by Shi Huangdi The interesting thing would be if there was another president in power in the USA before WWI had started. If that president was unwilling to go to war, things could have been different.

er....someone like Wilson?

	01-04-2002 10:17									#22
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Wilson, with the prodding of Col. House (a trusted aid) definitely wanted to help the Brits, and get in the war, by my (possibly flawed) understanding.

	01-04-2002 10:19									#23
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He was an anglophile, but by no means a hawk. There wasn't the same sort of anti-war sentiment in the US as pre-WWII, so it wasn't equivalent to Roosevelt having to climb a mountain to get into the action.

	01-04-2002 10:20									#24
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No, he was no hawk, but CERTAINLY not an isolationist - although as evidenced by his 1916 campaign ("I kept us out of the war"), much of America was.

	01-04-2002 10:23									#25
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The US got its toes trodden on by the Germans, David. The US of 1917 was willing to go to war over that.

	01-04-2002 10:25									#26
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Actually we started the trodding - it was Wilson's propaganda that riled up the US public, thus partially proving MY point

The German embassy, for example, tried to take out ads in US papers warning that the Lusitania was a valid war target, but the Wilson Administration suppressed this, making Wilson, not Germany, responsible for US deaths on that ship.

	01-04-2002 10:28									#27
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quote: Originally posted by David Floyd No, he was no hawk, but CERTAINLY not an isolationist - although as evidenced by his 1916 campaign ("I kept us out of the war"), much of America was.

We were attacked multiple times, DF, not to mention the Zimmerman fiasco, so we were pushed into the war and Wilson had no choice, though it was not the choice he wanted to make. Wilson was indeed an isolationist, despite his feelings about helping Britain. He ran on the promise of keeping us out of the war - and that wasn't just about gaining votes. I'm surprised Wilson isn't one of your ideal presidents...then again, he's one of my favorites, and if a leftist like me likes him so much, you probably hate him.

	01-04-2002 10:29									#28
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Doesn't matter. You can try and blame every foreign war on the US president of the time, but some cases don't fit. Wilson would just have soon stayed out of things. U-Boats in the Atlantic and the Zimmerman telegraph were enough to piss off the entire country to the point where they thought it worthwhile to throw in with the British.

	01-04-2002 10:31									#29
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First off, we both know that the US was selling war material ti Britain.
We also both know that the Zimmerman Note was essentially defensive in nature.
Further, we both know that I hate Wilson, if nothing else, because of his internationalism.

	01-04-2002 10:32									#30
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KH- True, but again this was due to US government propaganda and a failure to adequately warn US civilians against traveling in British ships that just so happened to be carrying war material, or other valid targets.