08-05-2002 05:13									#31
	Support Apolyton, buy Civilization 2

Oh, and what's this about wanting to test something out on the zone? Are you full of **** or what?

	08-05-2002 06:34									#32
	Support Apolyton buy from Amazon

quote: Originally posted by rah In three attacks, anything is possible, I've seen weirder many times. Still isn't strong enough. Without the prior saves, there's not much to be proved. And I assumed by now someone else would have reported building a non-vet after LH, but I guess it hasn't been long enough. Maybe you should post it in the strat section to see if any of the SPers have experienced it. Rich Heck saturday Epik sent vet crusaders against my vet phal fortified on river forest. He attacked two or three times and lost everytime. The next turn I sent my vet crusaders against his vet phal fortified on river forest. Killed three of them and then the subsequent elephants without losing an attacker. Go figure. S**T happens. Not enough attacks for probability to even out.

haha... well trust me i know math, and if its truely random, then the chance of 3 vet ships winning in a row is 1/1000

	08-05-2002 06:37									#33
	Support Apolyton, buy Civilization: The Boardgame

quote: Originally posted by markusf haha... well trust me i know math, and if its truely random, then the chance of 3 vet ships winning in a row is 1/1000

Is that "New Math"?


RAH

I did just try to download that zip file and it said not found.

	08-05-2002 06:52									#34
	Remove this text

downloads fine, its a zip file.

	08-05-2002 07:05									#35
	Increase Your PM Length

Must be my netscape settings, I'll try it from work

	08-05-2002 17:48									#36
	Inflate your Upload Space

Yep, it must have been the settings, I tried it from work using ie and had no problem. I'll bring it home and check it latter.

RAH

	09-05-2002 20:36									#37
	Support Apolyton, buy Galactic Civilizations: Deluxe Edition

quote: Originally posted by markusf haha... well trust me i know math, and if its truely random, then the chance of 3 vet ships winning in a row is 1/1000

Markus, I tried to make some calculations (attacker 1.5 defender 1) and I've got these results:
Vet wins (on 4 attacks) - % probability
4 - 13%
3 - 34.5%
2 - 34.5%
1 - 15%
0 - 3%


Did I miss anything? (but I've never had a deep analisys of the combat system)
And the results are conforting... not 1/1000 prob but 3%... I know... but it happens...

	09-05-2002 21:05									#38
	Got spare money?

Hmmm, why did you calculate it on 4 attacks when markus said 3 ships? I must have missed something.

	10-05-2002 13:50									#39
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quote: Originally posted by rah Hmmm, why did you calculate it on 4 attacks when markus said 3 ships? I must have missed something.

quote: Did I miss anything? (but I've never had a deep analisys of the combat system)

... apparently I did .

Here are my results on 3 attacks:
Vet win - %
3 - 22%
2 - 43%
1 - 29%
0 - 6%

	10-05-2002 21:10									#40
	Support Apolyton, buy GURPS/ Alpha Centauri

quote: Originally posted by Messer Niccolò Markus, I tried to make some calculations (attacker 1.5 defender 1) and I've got these results: Vet wins (on 4 attacks) - % probability 4 - 13% 3 - 34.5% 2 - 34.5% 1 - 15% 0 - 3% Did I miss anything? (but I've never had a deep analisys of the combat system) And the results are conforting... not 1/1000 prob but 3%... I know... but it happens...

Well i think that 1.5 vs 1 is bs.. Go into cheat mode, create 20 vet ships vs 20 non vets. Your chance of winning is about 2 in 20. Using the combination formula you can then predict what your chances are of winning 2 in a row, followed by 3 in a row. If the chance of winning is truely random. This is the probability of 3 distinct vet ships losing to 3 non vet ships. Imagine having a deck of 10 cards, 3 non vet ships winning a battle, is the same probability as you picking the ace of spades 3 times in a row from the deck

(2) 1/10* 1/10 = 1/100
(3) 1/10 * 1/10 *1/10 = 1/1000