14-07-2002 04:29									#61
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No way man. I'm already too distracted by this place.

	14-07-2002 05:42									#62
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quote: What they do not realize is that regardless of what American's thought about a war to defend Taiwan, as soon as they sink a carrier the American people will direct their anger toward China. In that case I think that Bush would use nukes if necessary

Nukes? To revenge the deaths of 5000 onboard an undeniably valid military target?

I don't like Bush, but I don't think he would do that.

	14-07-2002 05:45									#63
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Remember that China has nuclear weapons too, Lincoln. And the means to deliver them to the US. Nuclear strikes would be responded to in kind by any country with the capability to do so. So now you've just killed upwards of 20 million American civilians who just wanted some fireworks on CNN...

	14-07-2002 05:45									#64
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strikes agaisnt China's nukes first

they only have 20 or so of them

Jon Miller

	14-07-2002 05:51									#65
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quote: Originally posted by Jon Miller strikes agaisnt China's nukes first they only have 20 or so of them Jon Miller

Good strategy, Jon. Destroy their nukes, then attack in full force!

	14-07-2002 05:58									#66
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Jon, the Chinese have a nuclear stockpile in the low thousands. What they have twenty of are actual, ready-to-go ICBMs. On fairly short notice (a few months?) they could probably up that figure to a couple of hundred.

Also, they have things called spy satellites nowadays. Some of these are specially designed to monitor and track possible ICBM launches against you. If the Chinese preparedness is anything like that of the US, every one of those ICBMs would be off the ground before the US first strike hit.

	14-07-2002 06:50									#67
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It takes only a few hundred nukes to destroy any country, and it takes only a dozen of nukes to remove you from superpower status.

I'm sure OBL would really enjoy if the infidels(Chinese Commies and American Chrisitians) destroy each other.

	14-07-2002 07:01									#68
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quote: Originally posted by KrazyHorse Jon, the Chinese have a nuclear stockpile in the low thousands. What they have twenty of are actual, ready-to-go ICBMs. On fairly short notice (a few months?) they could probably up that figure to a couple of hundred. Also, they have things called spy satellites nowadays. Some of these are specially designed to monitor and track possible ICBM launches against you. If the Chinese preparedness is anything like that of the US, every one of those ICBMs would be off the ground before the US first strike hit.

submarine launched

(I was joking man)

Jon Miller

	14-07-2002 07:05									#69
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Okay. I wasn't sure. Nuclear war with China is certainly more feasible than it would be with Russia, but the US would still come out of it with horrifying casualty figures (again, something like 20 million+)

	14-07-2002 07:09									#70
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I do admit to be somewhat nationalistic

I am not crazy thoguh

Jon Miller

	14-07-2002 07:15									#71
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Also, I'm not sure if those 20 ICBMs are MIRVed. If so, then you're talking 60, 80 or 100 warheads delivered to US cities, not 20...

	14-07-2002 08:45									#72
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I didn't think they had that Tech yet

but could be wrong..

Jon Miller

	14-07-2002 13:39									#73
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quote: The US would be willing to fight for Taiwan, and China knows it

I'm certainly not convinced of that. How many Americans do you know who are ready to sacrifice their son or daughter for Taiwanese independence?

quote: The strategy they likely will continue pursuing is integrating Taiwan with the mainland economically

Uh, sorry to tell you this, but ... it's Taiwan that is pursuing economic integration! The Taiwanese have invested enormous sums in the development of China.

quote: If the Chinese preparedness is anything like that of the US, every one of those ICBMs would be off the ground before the US first strike hit

"If the Chinese preparedness is anything like that of the US"... boy, I would sure hate to bet on that proposition. Inter-organization co-ordination is difficult for Chinese institutions of every stripe. Living here you quickly realize how fractured and balkanized the entire government is - the very opposite of the powerful, monolithic institution that many Americans assume rules from Beijing.

quote: Also, I'm not sure if those 20 ICBMs are MIRVed.

They are not.

	14-07-2002 13:44									#74
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Before anyone gets hysterical about that news article, it might be helpful to consider the situation from a Chinese standpoint. Consider this analogy:

With the victory of the Union in the US Civil War, Lee and the Confederate gov't escape to Hawaii, an island 90 miles off the coast of Florida. There, protected behind the impenetrable shield of the world's most powerful navy - the Chinese - the Confederate gov't implements a harsh, martial rule over Hawaii. Outnumbered four-to-one by refugees of the Southern aristocracy. native Hawaiians become second-class citizens in their own home. Over the course of time, with assistance from the Chinese superpower, the Confederate Republic of America softens its rule and becomes an industrial dynamo, with an economy the envy of Washington. China does not directly vow to protect the Confederacy in the advent of a mainland American invasion, but it's clear that the sentiments of Beijing - and the vast military might of superpower China - will make any action by Washington to re-claim Hawaii a dangerous proposition at best.

If this were the case, would anyone be surprised if the Pentagon was fielding strategies for the successful liberation of Hawaii?

	14-07-2002 14:13									#75
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Actually, until the Chinese get an effective SOSUS network in the waterway I wouldn't worry to much. Normally at least two attack subs and sometimes one boomer excort a carrier battlegroup. Plus those AWACS and Phoenix missiles are a ***** to get through. Ballistics missiles are the way to go if you can target them.

	14-07-2002 17:49									#76
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quote: I'm certainly not convinced of that. How many Americans do you know who are ready to sacrifice their son or daughter for Taiwanese independence?

How many were willing to sacrifice their son or daughter for West German or South Korean independence in the bad old days? I think (of course this isn't certain) that the Americans would actually be willing to duke it out (and take the punishment they'd be sure receive before winning) for Taiwan, notwithstanding rapprochement with mainland China...

	15-07-2002 00:22									#77
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btw - nuke detonations in China would be a little less than helpful for Taiwan, and Japan for that matter.

China benefits from Taiwan, Taiwan benefits from China. Nobody is going anywhere.

(mindseye - SF has started calming down a little bit with the econ. Still a ways to go, but at least the dots are a little less prevalent. Hope all is well over there.)

	15-07-2002 21:50									#78
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Sten - thanks for the update! Glad to hear the pendulum has begun swinging back. And things are extremely well over here, thanks for asking! Hope you and you wife and baby are all well and happy!