13-07-2002 20:30									#1
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http://www.cnn.com/2002/WORLD/asiap...iwan/index.html

quote: Pentagon warns of China threat WASHINGTON -- China is honing "credible options" to attack Taiwan and could act with scant warning against what it sees as a U.S.-backed rogue province, the Pentagon has warned. In a long-delayed annual report to Congress, the Defense Department said on Friday that China feared Taiwan's permanent separation from the mainland could serve as a strategic foothold for the United States. At the same time, winning control over the self-governing island of 23 million people would let China move its defensive perimeter farther out as it seeks to curb U.S. regional clout. Beijing is now focusing on intimidating Taiwan into reaching a settlement with it, the report said, adding that thanks largely to Russian arms supplies, Beijing was gaining "an increasing number of credible options to intimidate or actually attack Taiwan." Taiwan, an island off the Chinese coast, has claimed independence from Beijing since the communists took control of mainland China in 1949. China, which regards Taiwan as a renegade province, intends to one day reunify the island with the mainland, by force if necessary. U.S. policy has been to help Taiwan maintain a defense capability, but Washington does not favor Taiwanese independence. 'Shock effect' "China's doctrine is moving toward the goal of surprise, deception and shock effect in the opening phase of a campaign," said the annual report on Chinese military power. "China is exploring coercive strategies designed to bring Taipei to terms quickly." Such options include possible air and missile campaigns or a naval blockade. The sobering assessment is the first time the United States has taken stock of Chinese military trends since Bush took power in January last year, and the first since June, 2000. Previous reports released during the Clinton administration said that China lacked sufficient military might for outright confrontation. But China has pushed ahead with modernizing its military -- bolstering its arsenal with medium-range missiles and new submarines and destroyers -- a move the Pentagon says has been spurred by a potential conflict in the 100-mile (160-km) wide Taiwan Strait. In March, Beijing announced a 17.6 percent or $3 billion increase in spending, bringing the publicly reported total to $20 billion. But total military spending in fact is closer to $65 billion, and annual spending could increase in real terms three- to four-fold by 2020, the Pentagon said. Troubling China is seeking to "diversify its options for use of force against potential targets such as Taiwan and to complicate United States intervention in a Taiwan Strait conflict," the report said. "While it professes a preference for resolving the Taiwan issue peacefully, Beijing is also seeking credible military options," it said. "Should China use force against Taiwan, its primary goal likely would be to compel a quick negotiated solution on terms favorable to Beijing." One of the most troubling developments is China's buildup of short-range ballistic missiles in Fujian province, opposite Taiwan, the report said. They now total about 350 missiles and are growing at 50 missiles per year. "The accuracy and lethality of this force also are increasing," the report said, adding the missiles are ready for "immediate application" if called upon. Rising China threat China's growing clout, including computer hacking and air and missile attacks, also presented challenges to "other potential adversaries, such as the Philippines and Japan," the report said. China is at odds with the Philippines and others over boundaries in the South China Sea, and Beijing opposes any expansion of Japanese power in the region. China is developing variants of the mobile CSS-6 missile that would pose a threat to the Japanese island of Okinawa, where thousands of American forces are based, the report said. China, which also strongly opposes Bush's plans to build a missile shield, currently fields about 20 ocean-hopping ballistic missiles capable of hitting the United States -- a number that will rise to about 30 by 2005 and may reach 60 by 2010. Another problem area is China's recent acquisition of Russian-made submarines, which could be used to cut off Taiwan's sea lanes and to threaten American forces that might respond. In 1996, President Clinton sent two U.S. carrier battle groups to the region to signal support for Taiwan after China fired missiles into the sea off Taiwan's two main ports. Kurt Campbell, the Pentagon's top policy-maker on China under Clinton, said in an interview quoted by wire reports that the real worry for some U.S. officials was not the declining Russian arsenal "but the rising Chinese one."

	13-07-2002 20:37									#2
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Taiwan only claimed independence in the 1970s. It claimed to be the government of all China before that.

China's definately a regional threat, as well as a nuclear threat tothe US, but we knew that would happen someday. I just wish we didn't have such a moron in the White House provoking the Chinese into expanding their nuclear ICBM force.

	13-07-2002 20:38									#3
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The US military needs to create a threat to justify the money spent on it.

EDIT: notice that the report makes no mention of the massive problems within the Chinese military, particularly the lack of effective command, control and communications.

	13-07-2002 20:42									#4
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China will not invade Taiwan when they can aquire it by diplomacy.

America just needs an excuse to keep forces in the region. What, isn't North Korea enough for you?

	13-07-2002 20:45									#5
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The lack of a navy could be somewhat of a difficulty for China to get to Taiwan, sources close to the western border of the United States said on a computer gaming forum today...

	13-07-2002 20:48									#6
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I never could figure out why the West hasn't embargoed China to bring about a change to democracy. Especially after Tiananmen.

No that's not true, I can figure it out all right, the prospect of developing future markets there is too big a hindrance for an embargo. So it's reserved for countries like Cuba Iraq and North Korea. There's double standards for you. It disgusts me every time we fall on our stomachs for this despotic regime. Like when they intimidated the Danish government last year into not accepting a visit from the newly elected Taiwanese president.

Boycot those human rights abusing communist bastards! Better today than tomorrow. For the sake of both the Chinese and the rest of the World.

	13-07-2002 20:54									#7
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Winston, that's capitalism for you. 1.25 billion people are just too many to ignore. If I could get a dollar from each one of them, I'd never have to work again. Understand.

	13-07-2002 20:59									#8
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It's still disgusting. We could boycot Haiti, Libya and South Africa. But when it actually might cost us something to fight for our ideals, no way Jose.

But why am I telling this to a communist who probably has a Mao outfit hanging in his closet just in case something might start going his way.

	13-07-2002 21:14									#9
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Capitalism has only one ideal, comrade, make money. Doing business with China is perfectly in keeping with capitalist principles. Rather it i your conservative and possibly democratic ideals which are offended. Capitalism is certainly willing to use your ideals to get what it wants, but when they stand in its way, it ignores them.

I think, however, that most conservatives would be far happier with the government of China if it didn't call itself Communist, but kept doing what its doing. After all, they sayid nothing about South Korea, Taiwan, the Philippines, Indonesia, Thailand, Burma, Pakistan, Iran (under the Shah), the Arab oil states, Nigeria, etc. etc. etc. back in their vicious dicatorship days.


BTW, I'm not a Maoist.

	13-07-2002 21:17									#10
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Yep, Chinese communists make a lot nicer regime than the Saudi ones nowadays.

And they don't spawn suicide bombers to attack American people.

	13-07-2002 21:17									#11
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I can't help what you think.

But it is quite stomach turning at times to hear you talk about democratic cracks in the Western political system. A self-proclaimed hardcore Leninist-Trotskyist lecturing on democracy is like a... no I can't think of anything resembling it, sorry.

	13-07-2002 21:24									#12
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I am sorry to shine a lit up where you're keeping your head, Winnie.

	13-07-2002 21:38									#13
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Don't think too highly of yourself now.

I don't think your antiquated system of thoughts has the luminous intensity to light up the men's room in a tractor factory in Omsk let alone much else.

	13-07-2002 21:59									#14
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Like this is a shock. Just read Bill Gertz' column on the Washington Times -- he gives a better detail of Chinese buildups on the strait of Taiwan.

www.washtimes.com

	13-07-2002 22:03									#15
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quote: Originally posted by chegitz guevara I just wish we didn't have such a moron in the White House provoking the Chinese into expanding their nuclear ICBM force.

China would be expanding their ICBM force no matter what. Like the Japanese before them, they see the US as a threat to their expansion of power in Asia.

	13-07-2002 22:09									#16
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To a communist like chegitz, arms buildups can only occur in two ways: Either it's the capitalists who do it, or it's the capitalists who provoke it. A communist state would never build up stocks of assault weapons just by itself, oh no.

	13-07-2002 22:15									#17
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The revival of Eurowiggies apart, I'd be very worried were it not for the present US admin's habit of crying wolf and generally acting like they're spoiling for a fight.

Right now, I'm not sure it's anything more than China wanting to assert itself as a superpower.

	13-07-2002 22:16									#18
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quote: Originally posted by rmsharpe www.washtimes.com

The Washington Times is owned by the cult of Reverend Moon. Nothing they say should be considered true until verified someplace else first.

	13-07-2002 22:19									#19
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Should I know you, Jaakko?

Please refrain from the infantile name calling.

	13-07-2002 22:20									#20
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Just where do you get your info on that che?

	13-07-2002 22:22									#21
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Scaremongering. The US would be willing to fight for Taiwan, and China knows it.

They're crazy, but they're not that crazy.

	13-07-2002 22:26									#22
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If the shoe fits Winston...

It's just that Chegitz seems foremost a communist idealist, a far cry from the less than savoury communist dictatorships of our world.
And when you consider that he's one of the more thoughtful posters around here, the wide brush you're tarring him with looks more than a little disingenious.

	13-07-2002 22:40									#23
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Thoughtful...? I never saw that. He seems pretty one-eyed to me.

Comparing me to Wiglaf, now there's applying a wide brush. Without even knowing me to boot.

	13-07-2002 22:57									#24
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I try not to say rude things about you, Winston. And when I do, I at least say it with a smilie so you know I'm being silly and not mean.

Cloud9, It's well known the paper is owned by Reverand Moon. Study up on the Unification Church. . . . You know who Rev. Moon is, don't you? He's that Korean guy who thinks he's the incarnation of Jesus Christ.

Heck, you could at least do a google search yourself. Try this article from the Washington Post, "Moon Speech Raises Old Ghosts as the Times Turns 20."

	13-07-2002 23:06									#25
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Yeah well I guess that Jaakko character barging in here and calling me Wiglaf got me a little aggravated. I could have been nicer in my wording there.

Still I spoke my mind though.

Oh alright, there you go:

	13-07-2002 23:08									#26
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quote: I never could figure out why the West hasn't embargoed China to bring about a change to democracy. Especially after Tiananmen. No that's not true, I can figure it out all right, the prospect of developing future markets there is too big a hindrance for an embargo. So it's reserved for countries like Cuba Iraq and North Korea. There's double standards for you. It disgusts me every time we fall on our stomachs for this despotic regime. Like when they intimidated the Danish government last year into not accepting a visit from the newly elected Taiwanese president. Boycot those human rights abusing communist bastards! Better today than tomorrow. For the sake of both the Chinese and the rest of the World.

The US, and most of the west, also support the Pakistani leadership (military dictatorship and the Saudi leadership (dictatorial monarchy). At least the US doesn't support the Chinese governement, it merely doesn't oppose it. But it's far worse that the US is actively supporting nations like Pakistan.

	13-07-2002 23:10									#27
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Sorry, but I don't think so. Not calling China on their well instituted and systematic human rights abuse - among other things - is far, far worse.

	13-07-2002 23:12									#28
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quote: Originally posted by chegitz guevara Cloud9, It's well known the paper is owned by Reverand Moon. Study up on the Unification Church. . . . You know who Rev. Moon is, don't you? He's that Korean guy who thinks he's the incarnation of Jesus Christ. Heck, you could at least do a google search yourself. Try this article from the Washington Post, "Moon Speech Raises Old Ghosts as the Times Turns 20."

Very funny.

Reverand Moon may head the paper, but he doesn't own the company. The Washington Times is actually owned by the Washington Post Company, which is run by Mr. Donald E. Graham. Check it out!

	13-07-2002 23:19									#29
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quote: Originally posted by chegitz guevara The Washington Times is owned by the cult of Reverend Moon. Nothing they say should be considered true until verified someplace else first.

Oh, and this has been verified somewhere else, too. My original link came from CNN, so .

	13-07-2002 23:28									#30
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China is highly deficient in amphibious capabilities, so there is no way they can mount an effective invasion -- especially considering the amount of naval might the US already has there and how much Japan will likely be capable of deploying by the time China could invade Taiwan.

The strategy they likely will continue pursuing is integrating Taiwan with the mainland economically, then threatening those economic links if Taiwan doesn't start to integrate politically. If Taiwan resists there, China can then use those shiny missiles of theirs to bombard the island and seriously damage the infrastructure and island as a whole to the point that it is no longer an economically viable unit.

Not to mention that China's air force could never gain air superiority over Taiwan, which is a completely different story...