25-07-2002 07:56									#121
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Doc,

quote: From its brightness astronomers estimate it is about 2km wide, large enough to cause continent-wide devastation on Earth

	25-07-2002 07:57									#122
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quote: Originally posted by Fez I disagree with jimmy, we already have something. And there called nuclear bombs. I say launch thirty of them and the asteroid will be vaporized.

No it wouldn't be.

	25-07-2002 07:59									#123
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quote: Originally posted by Fez You bet we are.

No we aren't. Space missions are custom designed. Somebody would have to build and program the package from scratch. It couldn't be done overnight.

	25-07-2002 08:01									#124
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quote: Originally posted by Fez NUKES I TELL YOU WILL DO THE JOB. A big comes launch a thousand... ought to do the trick.

A thousand nukes? We don't have the capabilities to launch that much mass into solar orbit in less than 5 years, assuming we flew every booster we have as fast as we can turn them out.

	25-07-2002 08:15									#125
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quote: Originally posted by Frogger That's only if we pay attention to the maxim that a stitch in time saves nine. Wait until a month before impact and I don't know if we'd be able to do much to save ourselves...

I am going to live that long and don't care what some say. Or at least I will try to.

FROGGER SHUT UP FOR ONCE AND STOP CHALLANGING EVERY DAMN POST I POST. If the asteroid isn't vaporized maybe it will be deflected big time.

	25-07-2002 08:33									#126
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quote: Originally posted by MOBIUS I just saw on the news that there could be as much as a 10% chance that this asteroid could hit Earth!!!

That may be true according to present calculations but that 10% chance has a margin of error of (and I am guessing again but I don't think its too far off) several hundred thousand percent.
ie: Its basically a load of complete baldurdash and it was utterly irresponsible for the group that released the article to allow the press any leeway whatsoever to interpret it as going to collide.
Or maybe they were just bucking for a boost in funding ...

Current rocket boosters don't have the capability to intercept a target far enough out with the desired accuracy - nor are the guidance packages able to intercept a target moving at that velocity. This could of course change fairly quickly given sufficient need.

	25-07-2002 08:45									#127
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quote: I am going to live that long and don't care what some say. Or at least I will try to. FROGGER SHUT UP FOR ONCE AND STOP CHALLANGING EVERY DAMN POST I POST. If the asteroid isn't vaporized maybe it will be deflected big time

I've challenged every post in this thread that has been demonstrably incorrect. Unfortunately, all of your posts appear to have fallen into that category.

On a more serious note, you have no idea what you're talking about. First you think we should hit the thing with a thousand warheads. Next it's thirty. One of those is far too high for us to be able to do it, the other is far too low to vaporize a 2 kilometer lump of rock. Get some idea of scale. Dealing with something like this is not easy, and it's not an off-the-shelf solution either. We don't have hundreds of (or even dozens of-or even one) single-stage-to-solar-orbit booster lying around ready to be fired at the push of a button.

	25-07-2002 09:13									#128
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I DON'T CARE WHAT I AM SAYING... this is the off topic area I am not trying to be serious... and with this avatar I can't be.

So stop being a smart ass and let me be.

	25-07-2002 09:47									#129
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How can anyone take you seriously with an avatar like that?

As long as we have a few years or so, if it was a matter of life or death, we could do it. All the combined resources of humanity could do it, as long as we have sufficient time. This asteroid will have a known specific trajectory within months. If, horror of horrors, it turns out to have a 90% chance of hitting earth, we would have multiple plans, plus contingency plans to move it off-course in action within 17 years With an upper limit of 2.5 miles in diameter, it would be feasible. If it was 100 miles across, we couldn't do enough in just 17 years, even with that much notice

	25-07-2002 09:49									#130
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If it was a hundred miles across I'd be voting that we put all of our resources into mineshafts...









on the moon.

	25-07-2002 09:58									#131
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Mate, if it's 100 miles across, i'd start packing!

	25-07-2002 10:02									#132
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if it were 100 miles across our best hope would be that it would collide with the moon

	25-07-2002 10:04									#133
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If its 100 miles across a nuke is like shooting a BB gun at an oncoming train. Dont let Hollywood movies like Independence day and armaggeddon cluttered your mind with BS. The fact is, an asteroid the size of texas could not get blown up like it was. Have you ever heard of a Nuke that could BLOW up an entire surface area of texas?


Holy crap btw. Isnt that the year the Mayan's said the world would end?

	25-07-2002 10:06									#134
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"if it were 100 miles across our best hope would be that it would collide with the moon"


Actually, this does considerably more damage. If its 100 miles across. And the moon is about 2,500. It might just *bump* the moon out of orbit or into us

	25-07-2002 10:07									#135
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quote: This is definitely the wake up call we need to kickstart the colonisation of Mars, to pull up our space technology to enable us to avoid the possibility of being hit and even have a 'back up planet' if for some reason we cannot avoid a collision...

maybe this planet was another civilization's 'back up planet'

	25-07-2002 10:11									#136
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"This is definitely the wake up call we need to kickstart the colonisation of Mars, "

This is a waste of resources. Even if we did colonize mars. Terraforming would take 100,000 years. Any number of colonies would of probably died out by then. Your best bet is to protect earth. Develop an SDI like system, only to target incoming rocks.


And if were looking for a planet to colonize. We should check out Europa. Its possible we could start an ice-fishing colony there.

	25-07-2002 10:42									#137
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Who needs to terraform? We can easily create a dome with climate control on Mars. The terraforming could be instigated as a promise to our descendants It's not exactly beer and skittles, but if Earth was doomed, it could be done.

	25-07-2002 10:50									#138
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quote: Originally posted by faded glory Holy crap btw. Isnt that the year the Mayan's said the world would end?

Actually it's 2012 - maybe there's another gigantic hunk of rock on a collision course with Earth we don't yet know about!!!

Hey KH, any spare room in that mineshaft of yours!!!

	25-07-2002 11:02									#139
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quote: Originally posted by faded glory "if it were 100 miles across our best hope would be that it would collide with the moon" Actually, this does considerably more damage. If its 100 miles across. And the moon is about 2,500. It might just *bump* the moon out of orbit or into us

Who cares! 100 miles is still much more than enough to wipe out everything on the planet. We don't need earth to be broken in half to kill us off.

I think the Mayans are right. By coincidence though. I'm guessing by that time the plans of the puppet master of Dubbaya wil have come to fruition. And then all of Earth will know pain!

	25-07-2002 11:57									#140
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quote: Originally posted by faded glory This is a waste of resources. Even if we did colonize mars. Terraforming would take 100,000 years. Any number of colonies would of probably died out by then. Your best bet is to protect earth. Develop an SDI like system, only to target incoming rocks.

We need an excuse to increase the sophistication of our space programme - colonising Mars is a good excuse. As well as the fact that it could reap a huge amount of resources and perhaps in the distant future help reduce the population on Earth. Like Lung says...

quote: maybe this planet was another civilization's 'back up planet'

Maybe our species has been playing a bit of interplanetary hopscotch...

	25-07-2002 12:05									#141
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quote: Originally posted by MOBIUS As well as the fact that it could reap a huge amount of resources and perhaps in the distant future help reduce the population on Earth.

Errrr... ??
Exactly what resources would these be pray tell?
I'm greatly in favour of going to the stars but you have to be realistic about it. Mars isn't going to be worth the effort of colonizing, other than as a stepping stone perhaps - with its lower gravity and iron-oxide/silica deposits it could conceivably serve as a base for ship construction but even this wouldn't be worth the resources required for a long long time.

	25-07-2002 12:12									#142
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Hmm ... I haven't seen anything on CNN or on the news wires at work about this threatening asteroid. That's kind of odd; perhaps I'm just not watching at the right time.

Gatekeeper

	25-07-2002 12:19									#143
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quote: Originally posted by Gatekeeper Hmm ... I haven't seen anything on CNN or on the news wires at work about this threatening asteroid.

Probably because CNN has it right for once. An asteroid detected 3 weeks ago cannot possibly have a projected impact on the Earth 17 years in the future. Knowledge of precise mechanics is fundamental in multi-body problems and that is knowledge they just don't have after 3 weeks of observation.

	25-07-2002 12:41									#144
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quote: The problem with nukes: Should we trust the same people who crash satelites all the time to launch NUCLEAR WEAPONS over our heads? Especially when they aren't even certain if it's necesary?

If we're about to recieve the '*****slap Of The Heavens', no sane person is going to be overly concerned about about a few stray nukes.

quote: Furthermore, The solid rock of an asteroid would, most likely, reflect the energy of an atomic incident, rather be destroyed by it.

That's the idea -- billiards, donchaknow.

	25-07-2002 12:47									#145
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quote: Current rocket boosters don't have the capability to intercept a target far enough out with the desired accuracy - nor are the guidance packages able to intercept a target moving at that velocity. This could of course change fairly quickly given sufficient need.

That object is still operating within the bounds of physics; if it has an orbit between Mars and Earth, its average velocity will be somewhere between Mars and Earth. Mars is no biggie -- at least until you try to land using two different standards of measurement...

We have intercepted comets, done flybys of Io (a small speedy object deep in one hell of a gravity well), and had successful landings on a variety of bodies. We definately have the capability.

	25-07-2002 12:49									#146
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quote: Originally posted by ravagon Errrr... ?? Exactly what resources would these be pray tell? I'm greatly in favour of going to the stars but you have to be realistic about it. Mars isn't going to be worth the effort of colonizing, other than as a stepping stone perhaps - with its lower gravity and iron-oxide/silica deposits it could conceivably serve as a base for ship construction but even this wouldn't be worth the resources required for a long long time.

Moon first, then Mars.

We really should have started this a long time ago.

	25-07-2002 14:33									#147
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quote: Originally posted by ravagon Errrr... ?? Exactly what resources would these be pray tell? I'm greatly in favour of going to the stars but you have to be realistic about it. Mars isn't going to be worth the effort of colonizing, other than as a stepping stone perhaps - with its lower gravity and iron-oxide/silica deposits it could conceivably serve as a base for ship construction but even this wouldn't be worth the resources required for a long long time.

While I might not exactly be a Mars Geology expert, why do you consider that it is nothing but a barren rock?

It's not like we've really been able to directly examine much more than a few square metres of it's surface

Why should it not have as complex a make up as Earth?

I mean, I'm not expecting gas fields and oil fields etc for obvious reason...

	25-07-2002 19:27									#148
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Yes apparently one of the potential methods of deflecting the asteroid is to paint it WHITE...

Apparently that changes it's absorbtion rate of energy which, over such a long distance, alters it's trajectory...

BTW a month or so ago a football pitch sized asteroid passed between the Earth and the Moon...

Man it's getting a bit crowded up there...

	25-07-2002 23:39									#149
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Not quite, Mobius. We just suddenly have the ability to see how crowded it is. We're doomed. Doomed I tell you, DOOMED!!

	26-07-2002 01:39									#150
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quote: Originally posted by MOBIUS BTW a month or so ago a football pitch sized asteroid passed between the Earth and the Moon...

I am more worried about bolides. If you see a bright light in the sky caused by an object releasing as much energy as a Hiroshima bomb, you may be inclined to think your nation is under attack.

These things impact the atmosphere several times a year.