31-08-2002 02:55									#61
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I heard there is some kind of movement in Mongolia about rejoining China, but China doesn't seem to be interested in that place.

The fact is: if a country is doing really well, there will other countries willing to join; if your country is doing awful, even the country's second largest city wants to leave.

	31-08-2002 03:01									#62
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quote: The PRC can easily take Taiwan (easily in terms of it's up to the PRC to define acceptable casualties incurred and damage inflicted).

I disagree. Sure, they can destroy airfields and air defense sites - losing massive numbers of aircraft in the process.

But what they cannot do is land on mainland Taiwan with sufficient ground forces to take it. Sure, they could probably seize Quemoy, but not Taiwan itself. Taiwan has only three defensible beaches, and for a nation of that size, pretty large ground forces. All Taiwan has to do is defeat Chinese forces piecemeal as they are landed.

And contrary to what you said Chinese troops can't come over in rowboats. It's just too far, they'd be utterly exhausted from rowing by the time they got there. Further, even assuming they scraped together every seaworthy barge in China to transport men, it still won't help them because they don't have the assets to transport enough heavy equipment. 10,000 men on the beach aren't going to matter if they aren't equipped with the armor, APCs, and artillery - not to mention basic items like heavy machine guns and mortars and food and drinking water - because Taiwanese forces WILL be equipped with all of those things.

But you are right - an island IS utterly indefensible in absolute terms, just as the Maginot Line was. But Germany couldn't have beaten France just by charging headlong into the Maginot Line - they had to go around, and do something unexpected. But China can't go around or do anything unexpected - all they can do is land troops on the beach. And that's not gonna be enough to do it.

	31-08-2002 03:14									#63
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quote: Originally posted by David Floyd I disagree. Sure, they can destroy airfields and air defense sites - losing massive numbers of aircraft in the process.

That's why God invented medium and long-range ballistic missiles. They have enough of those to saturate the Taiwanese fixed air defenses and bases.

Once the Taiwanese air and air defense capability is dealt with, it's a principal of amphibious ops that an amphibious invader is strongest on and near the beach, within range of coordinated air and naval support to pound the **** out of concentrated defenses.

The real question would be how much will to resist would the Taiwanese have once it was clear that China intended to act decisively. Deliver a couple of thousand ballistic missiles to Taiwanese naval, airbase and air defense locations, keep 'em coming on a 24 hour a day basis, overwhelm firefighting and casualty handling capability, and see just how long and strong that will to resist will stick around.

quote: And contrary to what you said Chinese troops can't come over in rowboats. It's just too far, they'd be utterly exhausted from rowing by the time they got there.

I wasn't being literal.

quote: Further, even assuming they scraped together every seaworthy barge in China to transport men, it still won't help them because they don't have the assets to transport enough heavy equipment. 10,000 men on the beach aren't going to matter if they aren't equipped with the armor, APCs, and artillery - not to mention basic items like heavy machine guns and mortars and food and drinking water - because Taiwanese forces WILL be equipped with all of those things.

Heavy equipment needs to be deployable when it reaches the beach anyway - and it's the job of light infantry to secure that beachhead with air and naval support so the heavies can deploy. Again, you use conventional ballistic missiles, air attacks and naval artillery to blast the hell out of any defensive concentrations and restrict defensive movement.

You don't want to land heavies in the initial wave anyway, because the Taiwanese will be throwing everything they have at the landing areas, and that debris interferes with follow on landing operations.

	31-08-2002 03:19									#64
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quote: Originally posted by MichaeltheGreat Gatekeeper - I've never thought of the Chinese as being expansionist per se, it's just more dirt and people to manage. Expanding influence and power is another story altogether, though.

Hmm ... so China would rather turn its neighbors into "vassal" states rather than actually having to go in with military force to add them to China proper? It's an effective tactic.

Gatekeeper

	31-08-2002 08:49									#65
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quote: Once the Taiwanese air and air defense capability is dealt with, it's a principal of amphibious ops that an amphibious invader is strongest on and near the beach, within range of coordinated air and naval support to pound the **** out of concentrated defenses.

Yes, that's correct, but PLAN naval support is virtually non-existent. After a fight with the Taiwanese navy, Taiwan's navy would probably be reduced to almost nothing, while China would lose most of her heavier ships, and if Taiwan was smart, it would detail its submarines to hit the larger Chinese amphibious vessels.

quote: The real question would be how much will to resist would the Taiwanese have once it was clear that China intended to act decisively. Deliver a couple of thousand ballistic missiles to Taiwanese naval, airbase and air defense locations, keep 'em coming on a 24 hour a day basis, overwhelm firefighting and casualty handling capability, and see just how long and strong that will to resist will stick around.

China can't lob a couple thousand missiles at Taiwan every day. They don't have that many, at least not enough to keep it up for any length of time. I would also question how good Chinese targeting is. Probably not all that great.

quote: I wasn't being literal.

I know, but my point was that China does NOT have enough amphibious vessels to transport enough COHESIVE, COMBAT READY units to a beach on Taiwan in one wave. The US can only amphibiously transport around 1 division, using our entire amphibious force. China can transport much, much less.

quote: Again, you use conventional ballistic missiles, air attacks and naval artillery to blast the hell out of any defensive concentrations and restrict defensive movement.

Fine, but churning up the ground like that makes some pretty decent defensive positions. In any case, this would be almost entirely reliant on missiles, because most of the heavier destroyers and frigates China possesses would probably be on the bottom of the Taiwan Straits. And let's not kid ourselves about the kill effectiveness of a missile, against troops. German V1s and V2s, fired against a huge, concentrated city, only average approximately 1 kill per missile. Chinese ballistic missiles, without very good targeting in any case, being fired at fortified troops, would probably not even do that well.

Yes, a Chinese attack would wreck Taiwanese infrastructure and their economy - but the fact remains that Taiwanese forces can eject any single wave of Chinese troops that land on Taiwan before the next wave can get there, simply because Taiwan has too many troops relative to China's lack of amphibious assets.

quote: You don't want to land heavies in the initial wave anyway, because the Taiwanese will be throwing everything they have at the landing areas, and that debris interferes with follow on landing operations.

Of course, but the point is that Taiwanese infantry, backed up by a limited number of armored vehicles, will be superior to any force China can land at one time.

	31-08-2002 09:27									#66
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quote: Originally posted by David Floyd China can't lob a couple thousand missiles at Taiwan every day. They don't have that many, at least not enough to keep it up for any length of time. I would also question how good Chinese targeting is. Probably not all that great.

They don't need that many. If they can take Taipei, it's likely that Taiwan will surrender. Taipei is definitely within striking distance. With an initial barrage of against radar stations and communication centres, plus special forces activities beforehand, will paralyse the defense long enough for para troops to secure the airfields and maybe even the presidential place. Then they'll fly in the reinforcement and start from there.

Of course, the PLA will stike at a number of targets at the same time to keep the defense guessing.

It's not that the PRC can't take Taiwan but it will be completely worthless to them afterwards.

The total debt of Taiwan is around 40% of GDP next fiscal year. Their economy hasn't been doing well while the PRC has done a lot of catching up. In 15 to 20 years the difference will be insignificant so a peaceful unification will be very likely.

	31-08-2002 09:29									#67
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quote: They don't need that many. If they can take Taipei, it's likely that Taiwan will surrender. Taipei is definitely within striking distance.

I guess that's really the question - but that has nothing to do with China being militarily able to invade Taiwan. If Taiwan surrenders due to bombardment, that's one thing. But if they fight it out on the beaches, China can't take Taiwan.

quote: With an initial barrage of against radar stations and communication centres, plus special forces activities beforehand, will paralyse the defense long enough for para troops to secure the airfields and maybe even the presidential place. Then they'll fly in the reinforcement and start from there.

Chinese airborne forces aren't exactly the equivalent of US airborne forces. Their assaults would probably be uncoordinated as hell, and there is also no way ballistic missiles can take out SAM sites in the mountains. It's just not gonna happen, unless nukes are used.

	31-08-2002 09:33									#68
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DF,

Don't forget the PLA has cruise missiles too.

	31-08-2002 09:34									#69
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I'm aware of this. But don't forget that their guidance systems are not nearly as advanced as the US's.

	31-08-2002 09:52									#70
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quote: Originally posted by Urban Ranger TMM, Possibly, except that ROC isn't a recognised country. Besides, why would it want to do that? That's just courting disaster. Even if the PLA couldn't take over Taiwan, its export-oriented economy will collapse. TheStinger, Not that it has more votes but it has a lot of influence. Sure the constitution can be changed but the pro-independent faction will not be able to find enough support for that. The island's economy is in the pits right now and the Democratic Progressive Party has done a lot to worsen the situation. Surely they aren't very popular right now.

Oh, I'm not talking plausibility, just legitimacy...

So, if both countries' justifications for attacking each other are equally legitimate, would would say that their rights to defend from such an attack are also equivalent?

	31-08-2002 11:08									#71
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Last time I checked (about 2 years ago), PLAN had enough amphibious landing capability to get about 10,000 soldiers across the 90-mile wide strait.

Considering that Taiwian can field something like a million soldiers (including reserves) plus some pretty respectable armor, it's difficult to conceive of a successful amphibious landing.

PLAN has, IIRC, the ability to drop about 20,000 paratroopers - in theory (some of those aircraft are pretty old). However, China is quite poor at coordinating anything that requires more than one bureaucracy, whether it's different organizations within the military, different levels of police, city planning departments, etc. It's doubtful they could successfully drop more than a small fraction of this, much less coordinate such a force successfully with other forms of support.

It seems clear that the PRC could devastate the ROC with missile strikes, although it's hard to imagine a scenario in which the PRC wanted Taiwan bad enough to be willing to destroy it, considering the enormous amounts of Taiwanese money invested in the mainland economy, the loss of world trade, not to mention transforming the entire population of Taiwan into embittered freedom fighters.

	31-08-2002 11:55									#72
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Chinese and Koreans are traditional enemies, I would think that North Korea would fight China to death. They also have a huge army and many missles- some potentially nuclear. Of course, China is much Bigger and could probably eventually defeat NK, but not before being given a REALLY bloody nose and having aken sever damage to it's infrastrucuture due to NK missles.

	31-08-2002 15:14									#73
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BD,

Have you forgotten the Korea war?

	31-08-2002 23:07									#74
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Mindseye,

So you're basically agreeing that while missile could devastate Taiwan, China probably couldn't successfully invade?

	01-09-2002 02:20									#75
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Is this thread for real. Did China really say that Korea and Vietnam are Chinese territories that will be reunited in due course?

I can almost see it now, Vietnam and NK asking for US help against China!

	03-09-2002 02:36									#76
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No, I made the article up. Except for the quotes, which were all taken from Gong JianZhong. I just replaced Taiwan in his quotes with North Korea and Vietnam. Interesting though, his original quote claims that Taiwain has been a part of China since ancient times, but those maps I found clearly show that Taiwan and the coastal mainland near it were not a part of China during ancient times. What would Emporer Qin say?

	03-09-2002 02:53									#77
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quote: Originally posted by DaShi What would Emporer Qin say?

Something along the lines of:

"Wait, wait, there's more land across the ocean?"

	03-09-2002 04:46									#78
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Wow. I love teh logic on this thread.

"China can take Taiwan if they crate the island with ballistic missiles."

I was under the foolish impression that the only thing of value on taiwan was its industry. Vaporizing it in a cloud of atomic ash might defeat the point of conquering the island, especially when the entire world then sanctions you, starts smuggling arms to ethnic groups, and just focuses on making you fall.

	03-09-2002 17:55									#79
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I think Lincoln's gold is buried there.

	03-09-2002 18:23									#80
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quote: BD, Have you forgotten the Korea war

no, not really. if anything, the korean war shoulda told you that koreans are a bunch of psychotic people who pretty much will fight until they're entirely wiped out.

the only reason the chinese had such an easy time was because by then, skorea and nkorea were exhausted, while china was not, and skorea and nkorea had much lower manpower than they could've had.

that, and truman was bloody stupid for not letting macarthur go and have fun.

	03-09-2002 21:29									#81
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There's little difference between the Korea War's beginning and a civil war. Civil wars are common, even the good old US of A had one.

	03-09-2002 22:22									#82
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and in both cases, it ended up far too bloody.

	03-09-2002 22:25									#83
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This one is caused by the US propping up yet another corrupt regime, like usual.

	03-09-2002 22:32									#84
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well, it's no longer as corrupt. in civ3 terms, it's gone from catastrophic to communal, or some such like that.

	03-09-2002 22:33									#85
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Took you THAT long to make an anti-US remark UR?

You must be getting old...