14-09-2002 08:19									#151
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Saddam isn't any more of a threat to the US than he was right after the Gulf War. Even if Saddam gets nukes, how's he going to hit the US? If you're scared of a terrorist nuke, invading Iraq still isn't the solution to stopping that threat. Domestic security is more important than invading Iraq. Saddam is bad, but not worth the effort because he's not a threat to us.

	14-09-2002 08:21									#152
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quote: Originally posted by Sava Saddam isn't any more of a threat to the US than he was right after the Gulf War. Even if Saddam gets nukes, how's he going to hit the US? If you're scared of a terrorist nuke, invading Iraq still isn't the solution to stopping that threat. Domestic security is more important than invading Iraq. Saddam is bad, but not worth the effort because he's not a threat to us.

I second that motion.

	14-09-2002 08:24									#153
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to Mr. Bush:

For ****'s sake, if you're going to waste a billion dollars a day fighting some stupid baby-Hitler-wannabe-desert rodent, can you at least send me a million?

	14-09-2002 08:31									#154
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Hussein is not rational. Hussein acts unfettered by reality. If Hussein had nukes there is a good possibility that he would become aggressive again. Why wouldn't he? Based on his record he is aggressive whenever he can be.

This would destabilize the region. More importantly a nuclear armed Saddam could strike Israel. Arguments that Saddam is not a threat to the US are irrelevant. The US supports Israel.

	14-09-2002 08:35									#155
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Who would rather clean up the mess after Saddam uses a nuke? Anyone?

	14-09-2002 09:08									#156
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Saddam's years (read decades) away from gaining access to enough weapons-grade material to build even a primitive nuke. He'd probably do better building up a conventional missile force which can be launched en masse.

	14-09-2002 09:23									#157
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There are a lot of conflictiong claims about that. With the state of the Russian Strategic Forces, I'd tend to err on the side of proliferation being the rule.

Do we want to be wrong?

	14-09-2002 09:24									#158
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So we invade every country that's been bad and might develop nukes? I hate to break it to you, but that adds up to a few dozen...

Saddam's a paper tiger.

	14-09-2002 09:29									#159
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quote: Hussein is not rational. Hussein acts unfettered by reality.

quote: Saddam's years (read decades) away from gaining access to enough weapons-grade material to build even a primitive nuke.

Great, now we're getting completely unsubstantiated claims from both the lefties and the righties. God forbid people stick to things that they actually know...

	14-09-2002 09:29									#160
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No, not every country. Just the one led by a mentally imbalanced dictator who shows negative regard for human life and prizes human suffering highly. The same guy who has demonstrated an eagerness to invade his neighbours and to lob weapons at other nations not involved in hostilities in some insane hope of accomplishing some unfathomable goal.

There is nothing paper about that guy. Underestimating him might be one of the biggest mistakes that the West could ever make.

	14-09-2002 09:34									#161
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quote: Originally posted by Drake Tungsten quote: Hussein is not rational. Hussein acts unfettered by reality. quote: Saddam's years (read decades) away from gaining access to enough weapons-grade material to build even a primitive nuke. Great, now we're getting completely unsubstantiated claims from both the lefties and the righties. God forbid people stick to things that they actually know...

Do you know how difficult it is to run an isotopic separation facility? Do you know how much raw uranium you need to build a bomb that way? Do you know how much neutron (or neutrino, for that matter) flux is caused by an operating breeder reactor if you want to build a Pu bomb? Do you know how easy it is to see this?

	14-09-2002 09:38									#162
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The bullshit coming out about Saddam being 3 years from building a nuke is almost laughable...if it wasn't being used to attempt to justify a war.

	14-09-2002 09:39									#163
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How can you be sure it's bull?

	14-09-2002 09:40									#164
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Do you have inside knowledge of the Iraqi nuclear arms program? Are you privy to classified intelligence information? Do you have a list of every black market purchase Iraq has made in recent years? If not, then you know jack ****, just like the rest of us. Your knowledge of the process required to build a nuclear bomb does not give you any insight whatsoever into what is actually happening in Iraq...

	14-09-2002 09:46									#165
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I can't...but I can be reasonably certain.

From what they're saying, he's only just now attempting to acquire the right pieces to make a gaseous diffusion (IIRC) separation facility. That's step 1 out of a hundred. It's a damn time-consuming process (IIRC, the U has to be run through a few dozen times before it attains sufficient concentration of U235...and this gives a final yield of ~1% of initial sample). When the US did it for the Manhatten project, it took them 3 years of 24-hour operation at 3(?) giant plants to get enough U235 for 1 bomb.

Saddam doesn't have the kind of resources the US did in WWII. He's got to scrounge for spare parts if these same reports are correct. He might be able to produce U235 on micro levels...but never on scale of 10-20 kg like he needs.

	14-09-2002 09:51									#166
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Why couldn't he get material from the former Soviet Republics? Why does he need to make it?

	14-09-2002 09:52									#167
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quote: Originally posted by Drake Tungsten Do you have inside knowledge of the Iraqi nuclear arms program? Are you privy to classified intelligence information? Do you have a list of every black market purchase Iraq has made in recent years? If not, then you know jack ****, just like the rest of us. Your knowledge of the process required to build a nuclear bomb does not give you any insight whatsoever into what is actually happening in Iraq...

It gives me insight into how difficult it is to do it, unless you have access to weapons-grade material. This is not the sort of thing you can hide (like chem or bio stuff). He needs plants which cover square miles, he needs highly-trained techs, he needs ready access to a ton or two of raw uranium, he needs a hell of a lot of electricity to run these plants, he needs to ship stuff back and forth. All of these are extremely difficult propositions when you've got people watching you from above 24/7.

The mere fact that there's been no solid evidence of a successful extraction operation up and running is enough proof that there's been very little actually accomplished.

You can't run this stuff on a laboratory workbench...

	14-09-2002 09:53									#168
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Why is Saddam so adament to keep inspectors out?

	14-09-2002 09:56									#169
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quote: It gives me insight into how difficult it is to do it, unless you have access to weapons-grade material. This is not the sort of thing you can hide (like chem or bio stuff).

How do you know that he has been able to hide this stuff? Something has obviously gotten the Bush administration all worked up. Who knows what American spy satellites have picked up in Iraq? They could have the necessary plants up and running right now, for all any of us know. Just because we haven't seen the information yet doesn't mean it doesn't exist.

Besides, like nye said, he doesn't have to make the fissile material. It would be easier to smuggle some out of Russia...

	14-09-2002 09:58									#170
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quote: Originally posted by notyoueither Why couldn't he get material from the former Soviet Republics? Why does he need to make it?

If he could get from former soviet republics then he'd already have a bomb.

The fact is, 10 kgs of refined U235 is worth just about as much as a 10 kt warhead...because any idiot can make one from the other. Why not just claim that he'll buy a nuclear weapon? Unfortunately, that's a claim that can be made against anybody. He doesn't need any damn scientists at all if this is the case...and this means there's no proof against him, unless there's evidence of actual negotiations to buy.

So now the danger of nuclear weapons proliferation is something you can hang over anybody's head. Saddam's a nutbar, but no nuttier than a couple dozen others...all of whom have better capabilities than he does (due to sanctions).

	14-09-2002 10:02									#171
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I think you're assuming far too much. I don't see how you have any real knowledge about Iraq's nuclear capabilities; it just sounds like a bunch of speculation to me...

	14-09-2002 10:02									#172
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Drake, if this is the case, then why haven't we heard it? All he has to do is point at a spy satellite picture that shows there's some sort of imminent danger and he's got the entire Western world behind him.

So saying that there must be something because the Bush admin is all worked up is just begging the question. God forbid we'd ever think that a government might act irrationally or with a logic that we don't approve of...

	14-09-2002 10:02									#173
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There may be other nutbars, but none of them combine his psychoses and track record.

I am not in favour of the US just deciding to invade. I am in favour of the international community deciding enough with that guy and then the Americans and Brits moving to end his reign.

	14-09-2002 10:06									#174
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quote: Originally posted by Drake Tungsten I think you're assuming far too much. I don't see how you have any real knowledge about Iraq's nuclear capabilities; it just sounds like a bunch of speculation to me...

I know what "proof" is being presented to the public, and I know what sort of proof would be evident if Saddam had either:

a) a breeder reactor
b) a full-scale separation plant in operation

They're so far apart right now that you can't even see one from the other. Unless you're going to rely on the claim that there's definitive proof we're not being shown (against all logic) the absence of such definitive proof is pretty good proof of the opposite.

	14-09-2002 10:07									#175
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I'm not claiming to have any sort of knowledge about the Iraqi nuclear programme or what the Bush administration knows about it. I don't know anything, so why would I make assertions that I can't back up? You're the one making pronouncements about how far Iraq is from a nuclear weapon without any sort of evidence. Seems a bit stupid to me and not very convincing, but go right ahead if you want to...

	14-09-2002 10:08									#176
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I think the nuclear weapons crap is just being thrown in to scare people...and that without it, the cost we would have to ask the Iraqi people to bear is too high for the reward Saddam's premature demise offers.

	14-09-2002 10:09									#177
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I don't believe he's making it Frogger. That could not be hidden.

But that he got his hands on some ready made material... There is intel that can not be revealed without revealing how it was obtained. The lack of public showing can not be used as an argument that there is no proof.

	14-09-2002 10:14									#178
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Nope...but if that's the case then why the hell does Bush and co. need support they refuse to get with said hypothetical evidence? And why are we being shown weak-ass evidence instead?

If Saddam's dangerously close to acquiring a functional nuclear weapon, then what would stop Dubya from going in and coming back with the evidence and a fait accompli?

	14-09-2002 10:16									#179
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Maybe he's saving it for the right time? Patience is a virtue...

	14-09-2002 10:19									#180
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You're overestimating the current administrations abilities regarding foreign policy. Claiming this is all sort of some master plan we're not privy to isn't much of an argument, and it's certainly not enough for me to say yes to invasion.