20-09-2002 12:57									#61
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quote: The battle itself wasn't decisive at all though, it was the defacto declaration of war that was decisive. The Japanese could have just sent a note declaring war and the end effect would have been about the same. If they had ignored Pearl Harbor completely and just attacked the Phillipines the effect would have been the same.

No, it wouldn't. The war would have been seen in the US as little more than a war over colonies, and while the US would still have fought, they would probably have been willing to come to a negotiated settlement. Pearl Harbor killed any possibility of that.

	20-09-2002 13:03									#62
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quote: Originally posted by GeneralTacticus No, it wouldn't. The war would have been seen in the US as little more than a war over colonies, and while the US would still have fought, they would probably have been willing to come to a negotiated settlement. Pearl Harbor killed any possibility of that.

While the polite declaration of war scenario would probably have reduced American war fervor, I think we still would have jumped in with both feet. America doesn't tend to get into wars halfway, and we really hate to lose. If the second scenario (Japanese ignore Pearl Harbor and instead concentrate on the Phillipines etc.) happened then IMO the effect would have been the same. The U.S. would have been pis$ed off about the surprise attack and backed the war fully.

	20-09-2002 13:22									#63
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quote: Originally posted by Sikander This was much easier said than done. The obstacles were numerous. First, the lack of quality German scientists has to be taken into account.

A very severe lack. Heisenberg was about the only major name in atomic physics left in Germany.

The US project had scientists from all over Europe as well as the US.

quote: Secondly, the huge expense of the Manhattan project may well have been a luxury the Germans could not have afforded given the huge expenditures necessary on the Russian front.

No doubt on that one. The German effort was expected to take a decade or more so it was given a very low priority.

quote: Finally, I'm not sure that the Germans would have been able to procure enough uranium to produce enough weapons to be decisive. The U.S. had a good supply locally, and we weren't even able to build more than 3 bombs by 1945 even with the jump that having all those scientists and an almost unlimited budget.

Maybe not enough to be decisive but the did have a fair amount. Much if not most of the German uranium dioxide was put on a large U-boat and shipped to Japan at the end of the war. Fortunatly the U-boat was intercepted and it surrendered. The Uranium was shipped to the US where it was used in the US bomb project. It is entirely possible that the bombs dropped on Japan contained uranium or plutonium derived from unranium that came from Germany.

Neither country had a lot of uranium at the time. Only one percent of uranium is fissionable which is one reason that most bombs use plutonium instead. I think it was Nagasaki that got the plutonium bomb.

Yeah it was a plutonium bomb, Fat Man, that was dropped on Nagasaki:

http://www.atomicmuseum.com/tour/dd2.cfm

	20-09-2002 13:24									#64
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quote: While the polite declaration of war scenario would probably have reduced American war fervor, I think we still would have jumped in with both feet. America doesn't tend to get into wars halfway, and we really hate to lose. If the second scenario (Japanese ignore Pearl Harbor and instead concentrate on the Phillipines etc.) happened then IMO the effect would have been the same. The U.S. would have been pis$ed off about the surprise attack and backed the war fully.

Remember that there was still a large anti-war movement in the US at the time. If Japan had just declared war and then grabbed the Phillipines and assorted other islands the US had, it could have been argued that the Japanese had not attacked either US soil or US vita interests, and that it would be better to just make peace than to fight a long war.

	20-09-2002 13:52									#65
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Lack of scientists does not mean none whatsoever.

I also believe that had the US not entered or been delayed, then their own project may have been delayed as well.

I am not saying this is the absolute way this scenario would have happened, but it seems silly that many times over, in many threads through the years, the entry of the US and its importance to the Allied effort has been poo pooed as being insignificant or just not as important as it was.

And all those things I stated in my previous post were what ifs. To dismiss them as not even remotely possible is wrong as far as I am concerned. I think the entry into the war , at the time it took place , was vital for allied success.

But thats just my opinion.