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WarriorPoet
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Your answer Assuming all are veteran and on grassland:
Team with archers goes first:
Archer 1 dies, wounds Numidian 1 to 2 health
Archer 2 dies, Numidian 2 wounded to 3 health
Archer 3 dies, Numidian 3 wounded to 1 health
Hoplites fortify
Numidians fortify until all 4 are healthy
Numidian 1 dies, wounds Hoplite 1 to 2 health
Numidian 2 dies, wounds Hoplite 2 to 3 health
Numidian 3 dies, wounds Hoplite 3 to 1 health
Numidian 4 wins, is wounded to 1 health, and kills Hoplite 2
Now 2 hoplites (2/4 & 1/4) vs. 1 Numidian (1/4).
Hoplite 1 has at least a 40% chance of killian Numidian 4
If Hoplite 1 dies in the attempt, then Hoplite 3 will only have about a 20-30% chance of defeating the last remaining Hoplite. However, odds are that in the end you would have one Hoplite with 1/4 health remaining and victorious...
This of course is a highly risky attack for either party. I did this simmulation with the archers attacking first...in the other way, all of the Numidians would die attacking the Hoplites, leaving one badly injured Hoplite and 2 archers.
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