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Urban Ranger
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Apolyton Duke of Off-Topic
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The Creationists keep saying, when an event has a very low probability to happen, it doesn't. This argument has been refuted by a US couple just a few days ago:
quote:
California couple wins two lotteries, beating the 1-in-24 trillion odds |
(That's just the headline, the story is here)
So that's 1 in 24 trillion. Consider the facts that it's just for the US (or California, even) and these lotteries haven't been around for all that long, makes for a very strong case refuting the Creationist argument.
Some Creationists may argue that most events with very low probabilities to occur don't. If they cast it that way, however, it doesn't work against evolution, for evolutionists can always maintain that evolution is one of the exceptions, thus they are not incompatible.
USA, USA!  ( One of the few times  )
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Capt Dizle
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Perfectly ridiculous assertion UR but points for the effort.
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Capt Dizle
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Boris, what damn points? Jesus, Mary, mother of God!
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Capt Dizle
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Also, not that it is any more relevant to creation that the Ranger's Fez-like assertion:
Quote: "Angelo Gallina, a 78-year-old retired railroad machinist from Belmont, cheerfully admitted he has bought $20 worth of lottery tickets every day since the lottery started in 1985."
The chances of the Gallina's winning this particular double lottery may have been 1 in 24 trillon, but given their faithful participation its not hard for me to believe that their prayers were answered.
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Capt Dizle
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quote:
Originally posted by Boris Godunov
I certainly think 1 in 24 trillion is much greater odds than for life developing on at least one planet in the universe, given no divine intervention.
Erm, but how do we not know that God willed them to win it twice? |
Boris I will BBAM (thats boldly bald-faced assertion, man) your really silly math and thereby BAM Ranger with the following statement.
The odds of life developing on one planet in the universe, given no divine intervention is much greater than 1 in 24 trillon. Probably greater by a factor of ten.
And Boris, when you cough up the math behind your supporting BAM of Rangers BAM, I'll gladly proffer mine.
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Capt Dizle
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quote:
Originally posted by Boris Godunov
Which doesn't seem to sink in with the Creationists who spout the nonsensical idea.
jimmytrick: Ah, but they never mentioned God or any faith in the article. For all we know, the Gallinas are atheists who do not pray. Or maybe Buddhists. Or some other non-Christian denomination, like Catholic. |
Boris, booby, I threw the word prayer in there as a play on the religious issue. An ironic pun, so to speak. Get it?
No, I thought not.
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Capt Dizle
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Ramo agrees with me. Now I can pull the trigger and die fullfilled.
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Capt Dizle
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Boris, life in its simplest form is very complex.
Take the ingredients of a pepperoni pizza, in their natural state; throw them up in the air. How many times would you have to throw them up before a cooked pizza comes down? Incalculable. Ditto life.
But I am not a theist and I am not defending creationism.
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Boris Godunov
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Portland, OR
Aug 2001
time: 00:24
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quote:
Originally posted by jimmytrick
Boris, life in its simplest form is very complex.
Take the ingredients of a pepperoni pizza, in their natural state; throw them up in the air. How many times would you have to throw them up before a cooked pizza comes down? Incalculable. Ditto life.
But I am not a theist and I am not defending creationism. |
Not incalculable, I wager. And here:
http://www.talkorigins.org/origins/postmonth/jun98.html
"It's like rolling a die ten times and getting 3526525514 and saying "wow, the odds on that were 60 million to one, what a coincidence!!". (And note that rolling 6666666666 is no less likely; the probability of getting 3526525514 is exactly the same as the probability of getting 6666666666.) If you post facto single out some particular sequence as "special" (such as "6666666666" or "life arising") then of course that individual sequence is improbable, but that doesn't mean that the dice were rigged (i.e., there was an intelligent designer behind that sequence). It's exactly as probable or improbable as anything else.
Sure, non-life producing universes might be more probable than life-producing ones, but what does that prove? We only think that life-producing universes are special because we're in one. Each individual universe, life-producing or not, has the same intrinsic probability. The "intelligent design" argument is highly anthrocentric -- it only works if you assume that life-producing universes are special in some way that affects the production of those universes.
For example, suppose that you allow two compartments of randomly-distributed gas molecules to mix together, and then at some instant after a long period of time you take all the molecules in one corner and paint them blue to indicate that this configuration is "special". Then you claim that the initial configuration of the gas molecules must have been set in just such a way that all of the molecules which you later painted -- which surely were distributed almost at random in the beginning -- happen to end up, at that later instant, to all end up in one corner of the compartment. After all, if it had been set up any other way, if the initial distribution of gas molecules in the two compartments had been almost anything else, those particular molecules which you've painted blue would never have ended up in that corner all at once by that time. What are the odds of that happening, that those particular molecules all end up in that corner at that time? About a gazillion to one. That must mean that the initial configuration of molecules was intelligently designed so that those molecules would end up there at that time, right? Wrong. The initial configuration of molecules was random.
This is exactly analogous to what people claim when they suggest that "fine-tuning" must imply intelligent design. You after the fact designate some particular configuration of the system as "special", such as "those molecules in the corner" or "the existence of life on Earth", and say "Wow, things must have been set up in the beginning exactly so that this configuration will occur!". But it's really an artifact of our singling out one configuration as special. It's exacerbated if this configuration happens to give rise to self-aware life -- if all of those molecules in the corner happen to, through their interactions, give rise to some sort of sentient behavior, then they might suppose that the initial distribution of gas in the compartment was "fine-tuned" to make all of them end up in that corner at that particular time.
As a similar example, look at it this way: suppose hypothetically that the parameters of the universe were determined purely at random by some natural physical process (without intelligent design being involved), such as a quantum fluctuation or something. Further suppose that there are 10 such parameters, which can take on values between 1 and 6, with every permutation being equally likely. And finally suppose that the only configuration of parameters capable of giving rise to a universe with intelligent life is 3526525514, and that the universe happens to, by random, come up with that configuration. To us, those parameters are a meaningless and random sequence, no more and no less likely than any other. But to them, it's an extremely special, unique, and very improbably "fine-tuned" -- the odds are worse than 60 million to one! -- set of parameters. But it would be incorrect for them to conclude that their universe was intelligently designed, because in this hypothetical example, it wasn't! (And again, this does not require a "multiverse".) No matter what configuration actually occurs, you can always after the fact say that that configuration was "selected for" simply by virtue of it being so improbable and you being in it, when in fact it's no more improbable than any other!"
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Capt Dizle
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Personally, I expect there is life on other planets. I wouldn't be surprised if there are lifeforms in our solar system.
God knows.
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18-12-2002 07:59
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