02-01-2003 04:20									#31
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1. Schroeder resigns amid double-dip recession.

2. Saddam assassinated; allies do not invade, despite much confusion inside Iraq.

3. Iran counterrevolution, new constitution fashioned.

4. North Korean gov't falls, completing Bush trifecta.

5. Bush wins Time Man of Year

6. OBL still at large.

	02-01-2003 04:23									#32
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Dan, Do you really think Bush will go for a hat trick?

	02-01-2003 04:24									#33
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Much of the timing isn't up to him. We are putting pressure on all three. No telling when it will all break (or even if it will). The least likely is the Iranian counterrevolution.

	02-01-2003 04:28									#34
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If the hat trick happens in 2003 where's the election year war going to be?

	02-01-2003 04:29									#35
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See #6

	02-01-2003 04:37									#36
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I agree with most of your predictions Dan.

My feeling is that the Iranian Counterrevolution is going to be a surprisingly peaceful transition.

The whole Iraq thing is a scary situation all around, what DOES happen when Saddam is assasinated? Are we looking at some kind of early 1990s Balkan-type situation?

	02-01-2003 04:38									#37
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Ahh, Pakistan.

India will love that.

	02-01-2003 04:55									#38
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" The whole Iraq thing is a scary situation all around, what DOES happen when Saddam is assasinated? Are we looking at some kind of early 1990s Balkan-type situation?"

I don't know. And I don't know as we can really get involved in it, unless it gets really bad.

"My feeling is that the Iranian Counterrevolution is going to be a surprisingly peaceful transition."

I agree, although this admittedly is the best case scenario. After the fact, prospects for peace in Palestine are greater.

Bush seems to have the order of things right...

	02-01-2003 06:41									#39
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quote: Originally posted by Ted Striker Yes, but having a common identity is not necessary to become a prosperous nation. Secondly with the US overseeing the whole place, that keeps those differences in check while things get on track. It also took Japan many years to reach the stage they are at now. There was a time when "Made in Japan" meant you were buying utter crap. Now that label carries with it the highest quality in the world (tied with Germany). Iraq also has one of the largest oil fields in the world sitting under it, and contrast that with Japan where there were absolutley no natural resources available.

No, but having a common identity means internal stability. There are two big questions regarding this in terms of Iraq. First, will the US (or other western nations) commit the massive number of troops required and second, even with this, will the various factions really get along? Things are only relatively stable in Iraq right now because there is brutal supression of any dissenting opinions. Perhaps a better example would be the Balkans. NATO has a large presence in Kosovo and other areas, but while it may be preventing a massive civil war or genocide, it's hardly making things stable and/or bringing the different groups together.

As for the oil, that's about all Iraq has going for it. Further, what's going to happen with the money that it generates? Obviously, most of the production will be by foreign oil companies and what royalties it does generate need to be effectively channeled.

Going back to Japan, there was a history of taking western innovations and adapting them for Japanese society. Quite often these things were of inferior quality, but the inventiveness, desire for to industrialize, etc. were already prevelant in Japan (same deal with Germany). Japan simply had to catch up on the learning curve of quality. That curve isn't even in sight for Iraq, on top of all the other problems.

	02-01-2003 07:23									#40
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quote: No, but having a common identity means internal stability. There are two big questions regarding this in terms of Iraq. First, will the US (or other western nations) commit the massive number of troops required and second, even with this, will the various factions really get along? Things are only relatively stable in Iraq right now because there is brutal supression of any dissenting opinions. Perhaps a better example would be the Balkans. NATO has a large presence in Kosovo and other areas, but while it may be preventing a massive civil war or genocide, it's hardly making things stable and/or bringing the different groups together.

It will definitley be interesting to see and that is the great question to be answered in the whole Iraq problem. My worry is that if someone assassinates Saddam, what is that going to do for stability?

quote: Further, what's going to happen with the money that it generates? Obviously, most of the production will be by foreign oil companies and what royalties it does generate need to be effectively channeled.

Well, there is a pretty good example of this going on already, in the Northern US/UK protected area of Iraq, there is some prosperity there.

quote: Going back to Japan, there was a history of taking western innovations and adapting them for Japanese society. Quite often these things were of inferior quality, but the inventiveness, desire for to industrialize, etc. were already prevelant in Japan (same deal with Germany). Japan simply had to catch up on the learning curve of quality. That curve isn't even in sight for Iraq, on top of all the other problems.

I'll meet you halfway on this one. The main man who is credited with introducing quality into the Japanese system is an American named Deming. There is an award given out every year in Japan called the Deming award and that goes to corporations and individuals who excel at quality.

I will disagree though that the Iraqi people lack the attributes that are necessary to turn their society into a great country.

Now they don't necessarily have to an industrial powerhouse to be measured as a success. Remember, this is the land of ancient Persia, one of the most civilized empires ever. It's also the land that has Baghdad, which at one time was arguably the most scholastically and culturally advanced city in the world.

So, I don't necessarily see Japan and Germany as proper role models for Iraq. I see them turning into something different, with a lifestyle that is unique in their own way.