01-01-2003 16:04									#1
	Predictions for 2003 Support Apolyton

Here is my foreign policy list:

The United States and its allies will successfully topple Saddam Hussein but the peace will be messy.

Osama bin Laden's location will finally be pinpointed. He'll be dead by the end of year.

The crisis on the Korean peninsula will lead to the fall of Kim Jong-Il.

Relations between the US and China will deteriorate and there may be confrontation over Korea or Taiwan.

US foreign policy unilateralism and support for Israel will strain relations with Europe.

Israel will be forced by the US to re-open peace talks with the Palestinians.

The global economy will stagnate during the year. Global stock markets will mark time or decline.

Pope John Paul will either die or resign.

Last edited by Alexander's Horse on 02-01-2003 at 11:42

	01-01-2003 16:44									#2
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1. Not only will Iraq be totally defeated but, a la post WW2 Japan & Germany, the foundations of a democratic Iraq will also be layed.

2. The conflict in Iraq will cause a flair up in terrorism and an increase of fighting in Afghanastan.

3. The world economy will be marked by slow but steady growth and the U.S. housing market will cool down from it's current feverish pitch.

4. Here at Apolyton Paiktis will successfully pull every Turk (and most of the Americans) into a flame war and then will laugh as the Turks and Americans turn on each other.

	01-01-2003 18:45									#3
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quote: Pope John Paul will either die or resign.

Pope visits Croatia again in 2003


predictions about the balkans:

1. US pulls out and EU takes over. This inensifies the situation in Bosnia and Kosovo. Now that US is out, incidents are more often.

2. Bosnia the artificial state continues to live in paradox. Economy improves but politics do not. Office of high representative and SFOR military still required to maintain order. Croats unhappy with their status. Militant Islamists in bosnia now for good, plans to get rid of them fail.

3. Serbian economy recovers, market grows and along it neighbouring economies follow. Serbs get a president in third attempt, Kostunica again. More war criminals extradicted, more scandals from the Milosevic dictatorship surface. But the general direction is - forward.

4. Greeks continue to talk big about their orientation on the Balkans, meanwhile continuing to lay all sorts of cables to Italy. They also keep supporting Turkey in EU, knowing there is no real chance of that happening. They accept Croatian application with no fuss.

5. Slovenia, most economicaly developed of new EU members continues slow but steady growth. They use every opportunity to brag to Croatia about their membership. Plans for imperialistic expansion continue in secrecy.

6. Croatia slow but steady growth. Privatisation of last remaining state monopolies. Qualifies for Portugal. Best tourism season since 1991. Big part of motorway to the coast finished. Number of optimists in the country rises.

7. Kosovo. Continues the path to the full independance.

8. Albania. Continued emigration to Italy, Greece and EU. End of population boom not in sight.

9. Montenegro. Continues to live in federation with Serbia. Improves relations with Croatia. Good tourism season.

10. Macedonia. I have no idea.

	01-01-2003 20:19									#4
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Alexander's horse, you said that Kim Il Sung will fall in North Korea in 2003... How could he fall if he died in 1994?

	01-01-2003 20:36									#5
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Sonic, that would make the prediction a long shot wouldn't it?

Iraq will be found to be totally free of WOMD, and the US will invade Saudi Arabia instead. Then, full of fun and fight, the US will hit Iraq just as Saddam is breathing a sigh of relief and finally pulls out the nuke he's been hiding up his ass.

Chinese will invade North Korea after the US hits Iraq. China will win after a short but tough fight. South Korea will stop being morons and start being nice to the US again.

Afghanistan will renounce Islam and adopt Fung Goo.

Turkey will invade Greece and be utterly defeated by swarthy, manly, Greek men in arms in a very heterosexual manner.

	01-01-2003 21:36									#6
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I don't think they'll definently find Osama. They'll probably say, 'we think we've killed him, but we can't be 100% sure'.

As for China and the US - it will happen, but I doubt within the next year.

Not sure on Iraq - either the US and UK will back down due to international condemnation, or they'll be a war, but a democratic government will not be installed (a la Afghanistan).

	01-01-2003 21:37									#7
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1) Ming will spam his way past the 20,000 post count mark.

	01-01-2003 21:47									#8
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I thought he passed 20,000 long ago.

	01-01-2003 21:58									#9
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17,763 at the moment.

	01-01-2003 22:18									#10
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A PCR may have happened, he was well past that.

	01-01-2003 22:42									#11
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Only bad boys like me get PCRs...

	01-01-2003 23:19									#12
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quote: Originally posted by Sonic Alexander's horse, you said that Kim Il Sung will fall in North Korea in 2003... How could he fall if he died in 1994?

Erm, he could fall out of his coffin

	01-01-2003 23:31									#13
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That would be embarrasing .

1) The US will invade Iraq and destroy the army, but spend a good amount of time looking for Saddam. Afterwards there will be a token US force, and no real timetable for democratic elections.

2) North Korea will amount to a whole lot of nothing. After a month of attention, they'll let in IAEA inspectors, and everything will go back.

3) The ME will continue to be a battleground. Suicide bombings and incursions will continue.

	02-01-2003 00:58									#14
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1. Apolyton will have 50 new emperors this year, all becauase of the Democracy games.

2.All 50 will be knocked back down to King when Markos examines their posting history when he sees a 2002 poster as emperor.

3. **** Cheney dies of a heartattack

4.Moo3 wil hit the shelves in April, however multiplayer will be horrible until December.

5. Yet another scandal will rock the bush administration, this time over campaign contributions

6.Another Poly event. Jaybee will complete his drive to deity

	02-01-2003 01:05									#15
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Bush will reconsider his decision to keep Cheney as VP in a 2004 run and pick someone else. Even if Cheney doesn't die of a heart attack.

	02-01-2003 01:40									#16
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1. Outrage over the American invasion of Iraq will lead to the start of a worldwide alliance to halt American aggression. It will include much of Europe, and China. It will be a few years before it is crystalized but the seeds will be planted this year.
2. Sometime around September or October, America will reignite a new Korean war. Despite it's superior technology, the war will be eventually be forced into a stalemate. Many South Koreans will come to the North's defense.
3. In the Iraqi war, which will start sometime in mid March, Iraq's armies will collapse almost immediately. It will be a true 21st century blitzkrieg. The cost ot Iraqi civilians will be very high, much higher than that of the original Gulf War. The region will eventually collapse into chaos, despite America's attempts to set up a pro-US government. The regime will almost be uninanmously rejected by the Iraqi people. As a result of this war, the hatred against America in the middle-east will increase by several orders of magnitude. Many Arabs will realize that they must unite, or they will become puppets of the USA as well. This will eventually lead to a United Arabia as political entity seven to ten years from now.
4. The world economy will continue to plummet, Bush's attempts to revitalize it will prove impotent.
5. There will be a fairly major terrorist event somewhere in California after the Iraqi war. It won't be on the scale of 9/11 but it will shock and anger the American people. Expect this to happen around July.
6. This second terrorist event will cause Bush to further tighten his grip on America. Expect more draconian "Patriot Act" style legislation.
7. Another major event of the year will be war between Israel and some of it's neighbors after Sharon is assasinated. Israel will gain the upperhand until the UN eventually forces an armistice. Out of this conflict will come a dynamic new Israeli leader much more interested in a lasting peace with it's neighbors.
8. After the Iraqi war, a pact will form between America, Britain, and Russia in the name of "fighting terror". TThere will be a great deal of dissent on the part of the unwilling British people.
8. Despite seeming to be such a year of troubles on the surface, this year will provide a great deal of hope. The sense of worldwide brotherhood that will result in the unofficial alliance that forms to take a stand against America's expansionism will be unmatched since the world united against Germany. As I said. it will take a few years for the alliance to develop. But out of this alliance comes the hope of the world. The turning point in this alliance will come when America uses a small tactical nuke to try to breakup the stalemate in the Korean theatre, in response to false allegations of Korean troops using gas on the Americans which will occur in 2004, but that's another thread entirely.....

	02-01-2003 03:04									#17
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Wow monkspyder, aren't you just a shinning optimist?

	02-01-2003 03:05									#18
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quote: Originally posted by monkspider 1. Outrage over the American invasion of Iraq will lead to the start of a worldwide alliance to halt American aggression. It will include much of Europe, and China. It will be a few years before it is crystalized but the seeds will be planted this year. 2. Sometime around September or October, America will reignite a new Korean war. Despite it's superior technology, the war will be eventually be forced into a stalemate. Many South Koreans will come to the North's defense. 3. In the Iraqi war, which will start sometime in mid March, Iraq's armies will collapse almost immediately. It will be a true 21st century blitzkrieg. The cost ot Iraqi civilians will be very high, much higher than that of the original Gulf War. The region will eventually collapse into chaos, despite America's attempts to set up a pro-US government. The regime will almost be uninanmously rejected by the Iraqi people. As a result of this war, the hatred against America in the middle-east will increase by several orders of magnitude. Many Arabs will realize that they must unite, or they will become puppets of the USA as well. This will eventually lead to a United Arabia as political entity seven to ten years from now. 4. The world economy will continue to plummet, Bush's attempts to revitalize it will prove impotent. 5. There will be a fairly major terrorist event somewhere in California after the Iraqi war. It won't be on the scale of 9/11 but it will shock and anger the American people. Expect this to happen around July. 6. This second terrorist event will cause Bush to further tighten his grip on America. Expect more draconian "Patriot Act" style legislation. 7. Another major event of the year will be war between Israel and some of it's neighbors after Sharon is assasinated. Israel will gain the upperhand until the UN eventually forces an armistice. Out of this conflict will come a dynamic new Israeli leader much more interested in a lasting peace with it's neighbors. 8. After the Iraqi war, a pact will form between America, Britain, and Russia in the name of "fighting terror". TThere will be a great deal of dissent on the part of the unwilling British people. 8. Despite seeming to be such a year of troubles on the surface, this year will provide a great deal of hope. The sense of worldwide brotherhood that will result in the unofficial alliance that forms to take a stand against America's expansionism will be unmatched since the world united against Germany. As I said. it will take a few years for the alliance to develop. But out of this alliance comes the hope of the world. The turning point in this alliance will come when America uses a small tactical nuke to try to breakup the stalemate in the Korean theatre, in response to false allegations of Korean troops using gas on the Americans which will occur in 2004, but that's another thread entirely.....

1.American forces quickly swamp Iraq, which is reorganized immediately by the Bush administration. Existing anti-Saddam forces get the shaft as a democratic government and constitution is quickly put into place. Bush vows to maintain a permanent military force in Iraq for the next fifty years or more to ensure regional stability. American companies move in to establish partnerships with other nations to appease grumbling. With its new source of oil secure much pressure is eased on American global strategic concerns. America's action effectively fills much of the void that was left in the world's power structure after the collapse of the Soviet Union and reverses the elder Bush's policy blunder at the close of Desert Storm. Iraqi oil pays for the war.

2.Once North Korea sees the forceful action by Bush in Iraq they quickly take a new tone in negotiations and the reactors are cut off. The failure of the North Korean government, long recognized, continues to eat away at its roots toward the inevitable day that the government will be replaced.

3.The establishment of a democratic Iraq with close western ties causes uproar among Islamic fundamentalists and Arab nationalists. Other than scattered incidents this amounts to a tempest in a teapot.

4.The recession will continue throughout the year as it becomes generally accepted that the only way to regain positive growth is to concentrate on expanding global markets. Accelerating long-term investment in the third world becomes the game plan among US corporations. Thereby sacrificed on the altar of corporate greed the average American worker becomes even more disenfranchised. Therein lie the seeds of the rebirth of the Democratic Party.

5.Terrorist activity will continue but the likelyhood of a seminal event over the short term is not more than one in three in the US for the year. Odds are one in two for the Brits/EU combo. Russian terror incidents and strict Russian response will dominate the headlines.

6.Democrats will continue to scream about civil rights violations but George Bush will ride out the year and then adroitly shuffle the anti-terrorism agencies and legislation prior to the election to strip the Dems of one of their strongest campaign issues.

7.Israel will continue to tighten its grip on Palestinians. Arafat is assassinated by Arab radicals leading to a brief bloodletting among competing Palestinians over the future leadership. No one can tell the outcome.

8.Bush publicly distances himself from Putin's brutal responses to terrorist incidents but privately ties between the US, Russia and China grow closer as the two eastern powers eye the potential of the emerging EU with great trepidation.

9.Strong American action will reestablish stability to many regions of the world and will rekindle a resurgence of favorable opinion of the US in many corners of the world. College students will continue, however, to foam at the mouth ineffectively.

	02-01-2003 03:10									#19
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1. All w ankers shall cease from upskirting.
2. Alexander's Horse is removed from the Chancellor's position.
3. DROT Infiltratives capture Osama Bin Laden

	02-01-2003 03:19									#20
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The US will officially change its name to "The United States of We Know What's Best So Just Shut Up and Take It, and the Single Land Where God's Great Light Shines Down Upon". In the interests of brevity, it will be more commonly known as "Screw Everyone".

	02-01-2003 03:21									#21
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Kontiki, I'm sensing a little hostility in that prodiction.

	02-01-2003 03:21									#22
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1) A war in Iraq is over quickly as the Iraqi defense collapse. However, post war institutions are never sorted out to any satisfactory degree due to lack of long term attention and political will on the behalf of the Americans. Deprived of an organised and powerful central administration, Iraq only serves to increase the tensions in the Middle East. Ten years or so down the line, this comes back to punish the Americans.

2) North Korea is nothing but sabre rattling and teasing the Bush administration. They quiet down and get back to the hard task of starving their citizens, scaring the Japanese, and being generally erratic.

3) China and Russia continue to bask in the glow of the War on Terror, having overnight gone from barely trusted competitors to allies in the War on Terror. Russia can get away with what it wants and China is smart enough to stay quiet and let the exports flow.

4) EU opinion continues to harden against an America seemingly drunk on power after it's "victory" in Iraq. The German election was just the start as more politicians find that opposing American unilateralism can win them votes. The British government is in for a shock as the mood of the British people is made clear.

5) The ECB is slowly reformed to loosen up the Growth and Stability Pact. Bush's big talk on taxes doesn't help the economy. Poor nations continue to suffer due to Western tariffs and subsidies. No one has the political will necessary to take down the tariff barriers and stop the subsidies, which would lead to a healthier global economy.

6) Terrorism remains the hot topic for the news. The Isrealis and the Pals continue to slide deeper into their respective madness, making peace in Isreal nearly impossible.

	02-01-2003 03:24									#23
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1. Iraq will be turned into the next Japan.

2. North Korea will shut up and everything returns to as before.

3. Germany and Japan will stay in recession, America has some recoveries, Russia will be growing steadily, and China will continue its boom.

4. Richard Cheney will either be dead or drop out from the next presidential race.

5. US will be moving closer to Russia and China in the war on terror while Europeans keep whining about their tactics.

6. A major terrorist act will hit Europe.

7. The Pope finally kicks the bucket.

8. Same mess in Israel and Palestine.

9. Saudis replace Iraq's place in the 'Axis of Evil'.

10. I will get my master's degree.

	02-01-2003 03:27									#24
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Maybe just a little

Of course, I'm just exagerating. Besides, there's already a good chunk of people who already think that's the official name, and an even larger chunk who wouldn't know one way or the other if you asked them.

	02-01-2003 03:28									#25
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How about this one:

5. A member state of the EU runs up budget deficits in excess of the 3% of GDP limit. The European Central Bank is powerless to stop it and, since the first group gets away with breaking the deficit limit, other EU members also exceed the limit. This cause a drastic decline in the Euro visa vi the Greenback, Pound, and Yen.

Last edited by Oerdin on 02-01-2003 at 03:47

	02-01-2003 03:35									#26
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quote: Originally posted by Lord Merciless 1. Iraq will be turned into the next Japan.

Not terribly likely, since Iraq isn't rediculously far ahead of all other states in the region in terms of technology and industrial production, nor does it have a homogenous population or strong national identity.

quote: 2. North Korea will shut up and everything returns to as before.

Everything will go back to normal, but not before the US, perhaps using Japan or South Korea as a decoy, agrees to some measure of concessions (eg: food deliveries).

	02-01-2003 03:43									#27
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quote: Originally posted by Kontiki Not terribly likely, since Iraq isn't rediculously far ahead of all other states in the region in terms of technology and industrial production, nor does it have a homogenous population or strong national identity.

"Turning into next Japan" means that Iraq will become a prosperous and powerful ally of the US. Things don't have to work out in the exactly same way like Japan though.

quote: Everything will go back to normal, but not before the US, perhaps using Japan or South Korea as a decoy, agrees to some measure of concessions (eg: food deliveries).

Which is the same thing as before.

	02-01-2003 03:56									#28
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quote: Originally posted by Lord Merciless "Turning into next Japan" means that Iraq will become a prosperous and powerful ally of the US. Things don't have to work out in the exactly same way like Japan though.

Yeah, but the factors that let Japan become a prosperous, powerful ally of the US simply aren't present in Iraq. Japan managed to turn around fast and prosper because they had a good base and common identity. Iraq has neither. The tensions between the different ethnic and religious groups alone are enough to ensure troubles for Iraq.

quote: Which is the same thing as before.

Agree with you here.

	02-01-2003 04:00									#29
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quote: Originally posted by Lancer Turkey will invade Greece and be utterly defeated by swarthy, manly, Greek men in arms in a very heterosexual manner.

Hairy. Hairy, swarthy, manly, Greek men. How could you forget that? Can't you see what such glaringly obvious mistakes do to the credibility of your predictions?

	02-01-2003 04:16									#30
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quote: Yeah, but the factors that let Japan become a prosperous, powerful ally of the US simply aren't present in Iraq. Japan managed to turn around fast and prosper because they had a good base and common identity. Iraq has neither. The tensions between the different ethnic and religious groups alone are enough to ensure troubles for Iraq.

Yes, but having a common identity is not necessary to become a prosperous nation. Secondly with the US overseeing the whole place, that keeps those differences in check while things get on track.

It also took Japan many years to reach the stage they are at now. There was a time when "Made in Japan" meant you were buying utter crap. Now that label carries with it the highest quality in the world (tied with Germany).

Iraq also has one of the largest oil fields in the world sitting under it, and contrast that with Japan where there were absolutley no natural resources available.