13-01-2003 12:29									#61
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"And why would it be so hard to go the table and let them look like they got what they wanted?"

Because our entire defense is based on no nuclear blackmail. Not only would he own our ass, but everybody else would too.

	13-01-2003 12:31									#62
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Everyone would own everyone else's asses and then the whole world stability system would go down the tubes.

	13-01-2003 12:32									#63
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Dan, if you come back from the table with something that looks like Agreed Framework II (which is what NK wants, along with a non-agression pact) then everybody else understands what happened. But saying "we won't negotiate until you say you're sorry" to a country like NK is a recipe for failure.

	13-01-2003 12:32									#64
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Right. Even a war where millions got killed would be worth it to save the detterent.

	13-01-2003 12:34									#65
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And I agree that backing down now makes the US look weak. So wouldn't it have been a good idea to stay at the table 3 months ago? It stays behind mostly closed doors, NK gets a little bit of what they want, has to agree to stricter inspections?

	13-01-2003 12:34									#66
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Frogger: No, come back with Agreed Framework I, minus their nuke program. What can I say beyond this? Are we to throw out our whole security arrangement because of one guy who acts like a nutjob? No.

	13-01-2003 12:35									#67
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quote: Originally posted by DanS Right. Even a war where millions got killed would be worth it to save the detterent.

That's good, because that's what you're looking at with NK.

	13-01-2003 12:36									#68
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Is it a coincidence that 60,000 troops were sent to the Gulf at the same time the oil shipments were being thrown back on the table?

Remember that Iraq plays totally into this equation.

	13-01-2003 12:37									#69
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"So wouldn't it have been a good idea to stay at the table 3 months ago? It stays behind mostly closed doors, NK gets a little bit of what they want, has to agree to stricter inspections?"

No, we did the right thing. How could we accept that NK had a secret nuke program? Can everybody in the NPT do it, without fear of international condemnation?

	13-01-2003 12:39									#70
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Ya, that was the point, to get it out in the open.

	13-01-2003 12:39									#71
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"That's good, because that's what you're looking at with NK."

And that's why we have troops there. It's a dangerous business. Always has been. It was with the Soviets too.

Has everybody lost their kahunas post fall of the wall?

	13-01-2003 12:39									#72
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quote: Originally posted by DanS Frogger: No, come back with Agreed Framework I, minus their nuke program. What can I say beyond this? Are we to throw out our whole security arrangement because of one guy who acts like a nutjob? No.

In other words you want them to stop building nukes? No crap. So again, you're left with two choices: fight them, or give them enough stuff that they let inspectors back, hopefully with more reach this time. This is obvious now, and was obvious 3 months ago. And is what I said in the first post. So if you don't want to fight them (which the US admin has made plain; too plain, actually) then you have to negotiate. And so how is saying you won't negotiate until they admit they're wrong to a country like NK helpful?

	13-01-2003 12:40									#73
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The original plan was to completely isolate them.


And that does include Russia, China, and Japan.

	13-01-2003 12:40									#74
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quote: Originally posted by DanS "So wouldn't it have been a good idea to stay at the table 3 months ago? It stays behind mostly closed doors, NK gets a little bit of what they want, has to agree to stricter inspections?" No, we did the right thing. How could we accept that NK had a secret nuke program? Can everybody in the NPT do it, without fear of international condemnation?

Wouldn't it have been better to solve the problem there? They lose their nukes, get more stuff. Only way they agree to it...

	13-01-2003 12:41									#75
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quote: Originally posted by Ted Striker Ya, that was the point, to get it out in the open.

I see that as a bad idea in this case. Very bad.

	13-01-2003 12:41									#76
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quote: Originally posted by Frogger Wouldn't it have been better to solve the problem there? They lose their nukes, get more stuff. Only way they agree to it...

Well they already "agreed" to it once, what assurances do we have they aren't BSing again?

	13-01-2003 12:42									#77
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Remember, they only admitted it after we showed them satellite images of what they were doing.

	13-01-2003 12:43									#78
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Because you get them to let more inspectors in than the 3 (!) that were currently allowed. You do this by bribing them.

What you're asking is how the hell you're supposed to make sure they'll abide by anything they sign. Which is going to be a problem no matter what sort of solution is found (aside from a military one).

	13-01-2003 12:44									#79
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NK is under pressure too. They aren't getting badly needed fuel oil now. That's why they're pushing the issue pre-Iraq.

	13-01-2003 12:45									#80
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quote: Originally posted by Ted Striker Remember, they only admitted it after we showed them satellite images of what they were doing.

If you think I trust the NK to stick by their word then you're mistaken. I do expect them to see what side their bread is buttered on, though, as long as you don't put their backsw to the wall in public.

	13-01-2003 12:46									#81
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quote: Originally posted by DanS NK is under pressure too. They aren't getting badly needed fuel oil now. That's why they're pushing the issue pre-Iraq.

Yes, they're under pressure. But remember that when it comes down to it they're willing to sacrifice a hell of a lot more for their pride than we are.

	13-01-2003 12:47									#82
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But the point is that they had the first agreement done quietly yet they developed nukes anyway.

I don't buy that letting in more inspectors will do the job.

	13-01-2003 12:49									#83
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Then what do you buy? You've eliminated all choices with that attitude, other than fighting a nuclear-armed nation. Which, if necessary, is one thing. But if not necessary is a hell of a mistake to make.

	13-01-2003 12:49									#84
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"Because you get them to let more inspectors in than the 3 (!) that were currently allowed. You do this by bribing them."

Haven't we already established that inspectors are of limited value?

"You've eliminated all choices with that attitude"

No, it's just a recognition of reality. If the choices are fighting them or being their *****, then we fight.

	13-01-2003 12:51									#85
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Inspectors are worthless.

The only reason the inspectors in Iraq in the 1990s were initially effective was because:

1) They were backed by several hundred thousand allied troops
2) The Iraqis weren't yet hiding the stuff at the time so it was easy to find.

	13-01-2003 12:52									#86
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Had we? Nuke plants aren't easy to hide. They had some sort of small-scale uranium-separation plant going and you still managed to find it with only satellite photos. Which is score one for the good guys and all, but again you have to ask what value the stick is when you're dealing with NK.

	13-01-2003 12:52									#87
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quote: No, it's just a recognition of reality.

Exactly.

	13-01-2003 12:53									#88
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I would like to give complete isolation a try and then just ignore the ****er and let him rot.

	13-01-2003 12:54									#89
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"They had some sort of small-scale uranium-separation plant going and you still managed to find it with only satellite photos."

We found one uranium separation plant. Who's to say they don't have 1 or 10 or 100 others?

	13-01-2003 12:55									#90
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quote: Originally posted by DanS "Because you get them to let more inspectors in than the 3 (!) that were currently allowed. You do this by bribing them." Haven't we already established that inspectors are of limited value? "You've eliminated all choices with that attitude" No, it's just a recognition of reality. If the choices are fighting them or being their *****, then we fight.

Is it reality? If so, then I agree with your conclusion. But that also means that you really are going to have to fight NK. Which will make for a hell of a lot of news...