13-01-2003 12:56									#91
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quote: Originally posted by DanS "They had some sort of small-scale uranium-separation plant going and you still managed to find it with only satellite photos." We found one uranium separation plant. Who's to say they don't have 1 or 10 or 100 others?

Because if they had the ability to hide them on that scale you wouldn't have found conclusive proof of the one you did.

	13-01-2003 12:57									#92
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And if you really believe that they had a hundred then you better move away from urban areas, because they've already sold some bombs.

	13-01-2003 12:57									#93
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I don't think it will come down to fighting, but at the same time I don't think the Clinton method is the best option either.

And if it DOES come down to fighting, China and Russia had better get it on this.

	13-01-2003 12:58									#94
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They might, but as far as China's concerned it might not be on the side you want.

	13-01-2003 12:58									#95
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"But that also means that you really are going to have to fight NK."

There is always that possibility. There always has been that possibility, mind you.

We've been down this road before in the Cuban Missile Crisis, with a whole lot more marbles on the playground blacktop.

	13-01-2003 13:00									#96
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"But remember that when it comes down to it they're willing to sacrifice a hell of a lot more for their pride than we are."

This isn't for pride for us. This is for a nuclear deterrent.

	13-01-2003 13:02									#97
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And you backed down there too. Pulled your missiles out of Turkey. Apparently the SU didn't care as much about appearances as the US did on that day...

	13-01-2003 13:04									#98
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That was anything but "backing down."

	13-01-2003 13:04									#99
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"Because if they had the ability to hide them on that scale you wouldn't have found conclusive proof of the one you did."

The point is, inspectors can basically only inspect areas that they know about.

	13-01-2003 13:06									#100
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quote: Originally posted by Ted Striker That was anything but "backing down."

Hah. Then what was it?

You got a public win at the cost of a private negotiation. You could have had the same fwith NK, but instead blew the story wide open and set yourself up for an embarassment...

	13-01-2003 13:07									#101
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"And you backed down there too."

Was it perceived as such?

	13-01-2003 13:09									#102
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That's the point. Read my last post. Going public was a bad idea here. NK isn't the USSR, Kim Il Jung isn't Kruschev. They pride the appearance over the substance.

	13-01-2003 13:11									#103
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quote: Originally posted by Frogger Hah. Then what was it?

Backing down implied a one sided victory. I don't recall the US asking for a remove all the missles or else solution. Of course there were things laid out on the table.

quote: You got a public win at the cost of a private negotiation. You could have had the same fwith NK, but instead blew the story wide open and set yourself up for an embarassment...

This story is still unfolding. I think you're too optimistic with what those negotiations could have accomplished. They don't work too well if the other party doesn't follow through on them.

	13-01-2003 13:11									#104
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We went public with the Cuban missile crisis too. Doesn't forestall talks.

"They pride the appearance over the substance."

How do you figure?

	13-01-2003 13:14									#105
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quote: Originally posted by DanS We went public with the Cuban missile crisis too. Doesn't forestall talks. "They pride the appearance over the substance." How do you figure?

See point one from my first post.

Kim is a tinpot dictator. He has pride, and the need to look good at home. Kruschev was in charge of a superpower. Had less of an inferiority complex.

	13-01-2003 13:15									#106
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quote: Originally posted by Ted Striker Backing down implied a one sided victory. I don't recall the US asking for a remove all the missles or else solution. Of course there were things laid out on the table.

That's exactly what they asked for. Then Kruschev sent them a message saying he'd do a ***-for-tat deal with Turkey, and Kennedy arranged a secret agreement through the UN...

	13-01-2003 13:19									#107
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"He has pride, and the need to look good at home. Kruschev was in charge of a superpower. Had less of an inferiority complex."

I'm skeptical of paperback pop psychology. Can you work up something more substantial?

	13-01-2003 13:19									#108
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Ah, I know the history chief, and the private arrangement was a part of my assessment.

It's more than obvious that there are both public and private talks going on with the North Koreans.

	13-01-2003 13:24									#109
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quote: Originally posted by DanS "He has pride, and the need to look good at home. Kruschev was in charge of a superpower. Had less of an inferiority complex." I'm skeptical of paperback pop psychology. Can you work up something more substantial?

Is it pop psychology? I thought it was just common sense...

	13-01-2003 13:25									#110
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More importantly, Kruschev was a wilier character, for all his peasantlike affectations.

	13-01-2003 13:28									#111
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"I thought it was just common sense..."

No, it was pop psychology.

	13-01-2003 13:32									#112
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Anyway, I'm hitting the sack. Goodnight.

	13-01-2003 13:36									#113
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My take is Kim knows exactly what he is doing. IIRC, DPRK told the US that they have had a nuclear development programme in progress some time in August, which took the US completely by surprise. AFAIK, they are not yet nuclear capable. Anway, as clockwork, the US went public with that information. Mistake number one - that didn't help anybody, that's just setting the US up to look like a stooge later.

Sanction doesn't work. I don't think there is any actual case of it working against the govenment of a country. Besides, what does Kim have to lose? DPRK has been isolated for a very long time, it's only getting aid from the US, ROK, and Japan recently. Big whop. What does he care?

	13-01-2003 14:24									#114
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quote: Sanction doesn't work. I don't think there is any actual case of it working against the govenment of a country. Besides, what does Kim have to lose? DPRK has been isolated for a very long time, it's only getting aid from the US, ROK, and Japan recently. Big whop. What does he care?

Well, if food shipments to North Korea stop and Kim's army starts to starve like the people of North Korea...

Kim cares about keeping power and the international aid is an important part of his control over the army. Without the army, he's finished.

	13-01-2003 19:27									#115
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They're huge bluffers, Kitty. I'm not too worried about them. We'll just keep em pacified for about a year or so. Than we won't be occupied elsewhere and we can turn more attention towards them if needed. Until then, they will just have to wait their turn.

	13-01-2003 19:29									#116
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I don't think they're bluffers, GP. In this matter, I think you guys are. They're ****ing lunatics, and I've always said that.

	13-01-2003 19:31									#117
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Korea II would be a serious war, unlike the ones you guys have fought recently and might in the near future. That would mean casualties, lots of them, and the real threat (according to the US itself) that Tokyo might be in for a surprise...

	13-01-2003 19:56									#118
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I think they've proven that they are totally untrustworthy and thus cannot be expected to actually hold to any deal. Next time they want more stuff, they will just pull this same **** again.

I fail to see how continuing to appease NK helps us... UNLESS the expectation is that we can buy enough time for the regime to collapse. But I don't see that as a valid strategy, as the aid NK "negotiates" for helps prop the regime up. Therefore, I don't see why we should keep bending over for them.

The worry is that they will build nukes and sell them to the highest bidder, right? Well, what exactly precludes that from happening if we "negotiate" (read: bend over again)? They will break "Agree Framework II" just like they broke the first one.

-Arrian

	13-01-2003 20:25									#119
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The UN seems genuinely worried about this issue. Maybe we should work through them. NK has no real allies. If the Chinese were given a face saving way of reigning in NK I think they would jump at the chance. Perhaps facing a unanimous embargo would bring Kim back to his senses.

	13-01-2003 20:53									#120
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The question is this: do you really think the UN will play hardball with NK? I don't. I think you will get some meaningless resolution and a refusal to embargo (China, Russia).

-Arrian