15-01-2003 15:42									#1
	Historical What-If: No Marshall Plan Support Apolyton or Terrorists Win

With all the feel-good and feel-bad attitudes toward American eminating from recent threads, I got to thinking about this. What would the world look like right now if the US hadn't bothered to rebuild Europe? Whaddaya think?

	15-01-2003 15:44									#2
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The Soviets would have done it for them.

	15-01-2003 15:46									#3
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You mean, like East Germany?

	15-01-2003 15:48									#4
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quote: Originally posted by Frogger The Soviets would have done it for them.

Um, with what giant pot of leprechaun gold?

	15-01-2003 15:49									#5
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quote: Originally posted by The Mad Monk You mean, like East Germany?

I'm not saying the people in Europe would have liked it, but the Soviets did in fact rebuild the parts of Europe they took over. That they did it in order to feed their military machine at home was sort of my point...

	15-01-2003 15:51									#6
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It would have been, IMO an untenable position for the US to maintain a strong stand against the Westward movement of the Soviets on the long term if they had not helped rebuild Western Europe.

	15-01-2003 15:52									#7
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The Marshall plan was one of the more brilliant pieces of American statecraft, in addition to greatly easing the recovery of Western Europe.

	15-01-2003 15:58									#8
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So no Marshall Plan = Soviet Union still around and Germany/France/Italy/etc. as Soviet satellites? Interesting theory.

	15-01-2003 16:01									#9
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I really don't see American soldiers manning the front line with 500 miles of desolation behind them. It's not realistic. First off, they now have to pay the full costs of occupation/defense themselves, secondly the inhabitants actually see the guys in the East getting better treatment (!) and thirdly they wouldn't feel there's anything worth protecting at that price.

	15-01-2003 16:06									#10
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So what would the world be like now?

	15-01-2003 16:15									#11
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i would be saved from being told tons of times by some of our pals here that i should be gratefull to America

that would lead to a tremendous amount of pressure relieved from my shoulders, resulting to great advancements for apolyton

	15-01-2003 16:20									#12
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quote: Originally posted by MarkG i would be saved from being told tons of times by some of our pals here that i should be gratefull to America that would lead to a tremendous amount of pressure relieved from my shoulders, resulting to great advancements for apolyton

	15-01-2003 16:46									#13
	Re: Historical What-If: No Marshall Plan Support Apolyton, buy Galactic Civilizations

quote: Originally posted by Rufus T. Firefly With all the feel-good and feel-bad attitudes toward American eminating from recent threads, I got to thinking about this. What would the world look like right now if the US hadn't bothered to rebuild Europe? Whaddaya think?

The economic recovery of Western Europe would have been delayed*, probably enough for vulnerable countries like Greece or maybe Italy to fall to communism. I suppose the US would still have maintained a presence in Europe, and the outcome of the cold war not altered.

* "if the US hadn't bothered to rebuild Europe" - the funds were way to small to account for the "rebuilding".

	15-01-2003 16:55									#14
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Europe would have eventually been rebuilt but the Marshall Plan "primed the pump" and got those economies moving again much sooner then they could have on their own.

I do agree it is likely Greece would have gone communist and it is possible Italy or even Austria would also have swung into the Soviet camp (instead of being in NATO or neutral in the case of Austria) without the Marshall Plan.

	15-01-2003 16:58									#15
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"or even Austria would also have swung into the Soviet camp"



With the east of the country occupied by the soviets who pumped loads of money into the communist party, what percentage of the vote did the commies get in the 1945 elections, hmm?

	15-01-2003 17:02									#16
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The point is there was a viable alternative availible because of the Marshall plan. Without American help it is likely much of the war devistated parts of the country would have falling back into a depression.

People facing economic depression will often try all sorts of things we'd find rediculas.

	15-01-2003 17:48									#17
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The east european countries recovered quite quickly as well, and western europe recovered already in 1946/47. It is extremely unlikely that there would have been a depression. Also most of the rebuilding was funded domestically. The Marshal plan was crucial in funding europe's current account deficit and allowing access to US imports.

	15-01-2003 17:59									#18
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The whole western european countries would have the same economic power of... Poland

	15-01-2003 18:30									#19
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The MarshallPlan was more a Gesture than it was really important,
the real support did America by Buying European Goods.

	15-01-2003 19:20									#20
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One way of interpreting the Marshall Plan is that the USA recognised that it gave too much away to Stalin at the Yalta conference (half of Europe to be exact) and had to make a fairly major commitment to the other half of Europe to limit the damage done.

	15-01-2003 19:24									#21
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quote: Originally posted by Main_Brain The MarshallPlan was more a Gesture than it was really important, the real support did America by Buying European Goods.

The Marshal plan was quite important, I just reject the idea that the US rebuilt western europe - that's just ridiculous.

Europe had a huge current account deficit with the US because it needed food and equipment for reconstruction - America buying european goods came later. But making American goods available to Europe also gave a boost to the US economy.

	15-01-2003 19:27									#22
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There are a lot of conservatives that call the Marshall plan stupid...

	15-01-2003 21:38									#23
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I think we all agree that the Marshall plan was a brilliant piece of self serving economic polivy that helped us as much as it helped the US : they gave us money that we immediately gave back to buy US goods. The US scored a major victory in the diplomatic and image building field, while fueling its own growth.

It's win-win at its best, so we eurotwats should be happy about it. Likewise the US lovers should recognise they did it for their own good above all.

	15-01-2003 21:40									#24
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But I still want to know what you all think the world would look like right now if the US hadn't done it.

	15-01-2003 21:46									#25
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I'd say
Economic: slower world growth from 47 to 52 (esp in the US, that had no foreign market to sell to), then getting to its historical levels as it picked up speed
Geo strat: more trouble in Greece and Italy
political : possibly a stronger communist party in France and other western countries

it's difficult to say. Maybe France would have found it even harder to keep its colonies and would have been forced to decolonise quicker, so some good might even have comed out of it, ironically

	15-01-2003 22:42									#26
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Nooo! Maroule turned into a polytubbie!

	15-01-2003 22:53									#27
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ach, a counterglow informant... burn him! (new converts are always more violent)
You remind me of Dyl by the way...

	15-01-2003 22:55									#28
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I'm AnnC's poly spy.

"You remind me of Dyl by the way..."

How so ?

	15-01-2003 23:01									#29
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If there was no Marshall Plan, there would have been a "power vacuum" in Europe, allowing for chaos coming from all sides (communism, re-newed National-Socialism et cetera).

	15-01-2003 23:31									#30
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austrian, articulate, and loads of mauvaise foi