20-01-2003 14:58									#1
	Hypothetical: what if the Meiji Restoration failed? Support Apolyton, buy Alpha Centauri

The Meiji Restoration, some of you may know, is a series of events that occurred in Japan that ended the rule of the Shogun as the virtual ruler and triggered rapid industrialisation of the country.

What if it failed, and Japan remained a feudal country, divided and mostly agrarian? How would that alter the course of history?

	20-01-2003 15:00									#2
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we might not have to put up with that amine **** today...

	20-01-2003 15:18									#3
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No Anglo-Japanese alliance in 1896.

Russia conquers Manchuria and Hokkaido, due to lack of Japanese expansion. Perhaps Korea as well.

Insular Bakufu forced to comply with British, and other European demands for trade, and treaty ports same as China.

No 1905 rebellion in Russia against the Tsar, probably no Communist revolution in 1917. I'l hypothesise a flourishing Duma and eventual constitutional monarchy.

I'm not sure about the first world war- maybe without Japan, and a stronger Russia, Britain stays out, lets Germany/France/Russia and Austria Hungary duke it out.

	20-01-2003 15:20									#4
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without the 1905 'revolution' there wouldn't have been a duma

	20-01-2003 15:24									#5
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quote: Originally posted by obiwan18 Russia conquers Manchuria and Hokkaido, due to lack of Japanese expansion. Perhaps Korea as well.

Unlikely. Russia would not be able to bring in sufficient troops and supplies to do so, not until modern technology and a trans-Siberia railroad.

quote: Originally posted by obiwan18 Insular Bakufu forced to comply with British, and other European demands for trade, and treaty ports same as China.

Just because the Restoration failed didn't mean Bakufu would still be around.

quote: Originally posted by obiwan18 No 1905 rebellion in Russia against the Tsar, probably no Communist revolution in 1917.

Why not?

quote: Originally posted by obiwan18 I'm not sure about the first world war- maybe without Japan, and a stronger Russia, Britain stays out, lets Germany/France/Russia and Austria Hungary duke it out.

I was thinking more along the lines of WWII actually.

	20-01-2003 15:38									#6
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"Unlikely. Russia would not be able to bring in sufficient troops and supplies to do so, not until modern technology and a trans-Siberia railroad. "

No Meiji restoration, no Russo-Japanese war in 1905.

Russia was aggressively settling Sakhalin.
Not a big leap from Sakhalin to Hokkaido. The only reason the Japanese ever controlled Hokkaido was after the Meiji, and some of the land reforms. No Meiji, I don't see Japan expanding to Hokkaido.

How many troops does Russia need to take over Korea and Manchuria in 1905, or earlier, like late 19th century?
I don't state when Russia would expand, but I think with a weak China and weak Japan, Russia would expand into the far east at some point.

"Just because the Restoration failed didn't mean Bakufu would still be around."

Why not? What other alternative government do you see in Japan?

No Russo-Japanese war, you don't get any 1905 'revolution' and subsequent crackdown and reforms by the government.

What effects would losing this 1905 revolution have on the government, on Russian strength for the first world war?

What effects would the Anglo-Japanese alliance absence have on the British?

	20-01-2003 16:37									#7
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quote: What if it failed, and Japan remained a feudal country, divided and mostly agrarian? How would that alter the course of history?

Japan would've remained backwards and the ***** of the West, like China did...

	20-01-2003 17:29									#8
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That's some serious speculation material !

First, the shogunate would have been forced by both external and internal pressures to modernize, but it would have been reluctant to do it, and Japan's modernization would have been extremely slow, like China's.
Japan would have not been associated to WW1, and its industry would have been scarce by WW2, as no ruler would have sacrificed the whole agriculture as Meiji did. However, there would have been more industry than in China, since years of isolation and internal trade had accumulated huge capital reserves, and Japanese commercial methods were quite efficient. In all cases, Japanese economy wouldn't have been completely dependant of Europe unlike China's.

Incidentally, WW2 might have never been called "World War" as Japan would have played a nearly useless role, being under control of the most influencial European countries there (probably NL).
Without Pearl Harbor, the US might have remained isolationsitic for a longer time during WW2, until it realized that USSR progresses are too threatening. USSR might have taken whole Germany and Greece because of such a lag, and maybe Italy would have known some Soviet occupation.
After the war, Japan may have struggled against western influence, maybe through an important communist party. Had Japan and Germany been part of the Soviet Empire, the USSR might still be around today.

	20-01-2003 17:56									#9
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Of course, if there were no revolution in Russia, the Soviets would not be there to aggresively expand into the rest of Europe, and in fact with a stronger Russia, germany and Austro-Hungary would have surrendered sooner, leading to less oppressive reparations, and quite possibly no Hitler -- and therefore, no WWII for a still isolationist United States to get involved in. Certainly no cold war. Colonialism would probably still hold sway.

	20-01-2003 20:24									#10
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[Actually, it did fail. Its stated purpose was to restore the Emperor to power. That never happened.]

	20-01-2003 20:32									#11
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quote: Originally posted by Zkribbler [Actually, it did fail. Its stated purpose was to restore the Emperor to power. That never happened.]

Okay, if you look at it that way. However, it did industrialise Japan and end feudalism, which are far more important.

	20-01-2003 20:36									#12
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No Meiji means no Toyotas or other Japanese cars plus the allies would never have had to fight against the Japanese in the Pacific.

	20-01-2003 20:37									#13
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quote: [Actually, it did fail. Its stated purpose was to restore the Emperor to power. That never happened.]

That's a rather simplistic view. The sonno joi movement was never meant to give the emperor absolute power, a power the emperors had been lacking for over a millenia. The constitutional monarchy that resulted was perfectly in line with the purposes of the sonno joi movement.

At any rate, the support for the emperor was not much more than a rallying cry, a means of gaining support against the Tokugawa. Modernization was the most important goal of the Satsuma and Chosu leaders, not the restoration of the emperor.