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Sir Ralph
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Long live teh Schwampel!
Dec 2001
time: 06:25
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To be edited by the leaders of the Scholia.
Status:
- Researching Alphabet at 100%. 22 beakers (2 turns) remaining. Next turn science can be lowered to 70%.
- 20 gold cash, running 1 deficit.
Urgent questions:
- none.
Military:
- Slash continues to explore along the west coast, goes 1 next.
Economy:
- Northern worker (should we name them too, or number them?) finishes chopping, bonus goes to EotS. Startis irrigating.
- For the moment, rename the northern worker Worker #1 and the southern Worker #2. We can come up with names later if we want to.
- Switch laborer in Cyclone to wheat tile.
- Switch Hurricane production back to barracks.
- Last turn on Alphabet. Adjust science slider to avoid wasting gold.
Diplomacy:
- nothing for now.
Last edited by nbarclay on 22-01-2003 at 02:25
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nbarclay
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Huntsville, Alabama
Dec 1999
time: 23:25
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My feeling is that we ought to complete the tech deal ASAP so if Vox decides to doublecross us on it, we'll find out as soon as possible. Yes it could reveal our research rate if any of them thinks to run the calculations, but I don't think secrecy should be our biggest concern right now.
Zeit, I regard myself as being on good diplomatic terms with BetaHound, and I'm inclined to view Vox's earlier actions mostly just as pursuing a standard SP strategy without really considering the diplomatic ramifications in MP. (We've considered the same sort of thing ourselves with our ideas for blocking chokepoints, but fortunately, we do have people attuned to the possible diplomatic repercussions.) They moved their warriors what, about four tiles between the time Grog couldn't move any farther and the time they agreed to withdraw? That's really not that big a deal in and of itself; indeed, if we wanted Grog on his obervation post, reciprocity would have demanded that we let Vox's warriors come about as far toward our capital anyhow. Our fear of what Vox might do was totally out of proportion to any harm they actually did, and I want us to be careful that we base our reaction to them on the seriousness of their actual actions, not on the seriousness of what we were afraid they might do.
I'm not currently willing to trust them enough to turn my back on them just because they say they want peace. Not by a long shot. (Which is why I want to complete the trade deal as quickly as we can.) But neither do I dismiss the possibility that their claims to want peace are genuine.
Nathan
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asleepathewheel
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listening too long to one song
Mar 2002
time: 00:25
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I agree with Nathan that we should get this deal done right now. I don't think that giving it to them now would reveal too much about our tech rate/economy. Not that I think they wouldn't be as smart about the game as some here, but that its at most rather arcane. For all they know, we might have had alphabet for a few turns now. Better to know now where the iron deposits are, for our expansion and for time to develop a defensive contingency plan.
Have they said what they are currently researching?
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nbarclay
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Huntsville, Alabama
Dec 1999
time: 23:25
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I'm not expecting Vox to attack, but when I contemplate how Vox could hurt us most, a doublecross on the iron deal to buy them time for an attack sends my "nightmare meter" deep into the red zone. Even assuming we're right that they don't have a barracks yet, they could have one very shortly after we finish Iron Working, sparking a race for whether they can get immortals to us first or we can hook up iron first. (And if they underestimate our research pace, they may think the window of opportunity there is bigger than it really is.) Any such attack would be a desparation move, but if Vox expects us to take them out as soon as it's convenient for us, a desperation move might not look like the worst possible idea. As I said, I don't think such an attack is likely, but it will soothe my paranoid streak greatly when we can rule the possibility out completely.
Since I regard the possibility of such a doublecross as relatively low, I could still be persuaded to favor delaying the trade if I were sure having Vox underestimate our research potential would work to our advantage. But would it? On one hand, if Vox sees our true research strength, they might try to slow us down or even attack militarily in order to weaken our advantage. But on the other, they might view our strength as a sign that being friends with us is their best hope for long-term prosperity (not to mention survival). And given that uncertainty as to whether misdirection would work for us or against us (assuming they bother with the calculations to notice), I'm inclined to favor a decision that will put all possibility of the nightmare scenario behind us sooner and minimize the danger if it does occur.
Nathan
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DeepO
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supporting Candle'Bre
Jan 2002
time: 06:25
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I've been wondering about the same thing: What will happen if they notice we're far better then they are researchwise? (BTW, this doesn't need loads of calculations, a simple 'we started earlier on this tech, and haven't finished yet while GS has alphabet now' comparison could do it).
Roleplaying Vox again...
If I were in the Vox position, most likely I would try to clip the wings on the research partner, while making sure I benefit most from it. A long term tech trade deal is not really realistic, so I will need other means to compensate. Millitary is one option, but this won't do me any good in the current situation, as an attack now will cost me more then I can gain.
What will work is isolation: I let the research partner do the work for me, and I sell it to another Civ. Meanwhile, I do a tiny bit of research myself, which puts me on top of both.
[/end of roleplay]
If they notice (which we'll need to assume, as a worst case situation), most likely they will be very hesitant to trade contact information with us.
So in that sense, I wouldn't show off our biggest advantages so easily, we have two major things going for us: expansion and research. Expansion can be followed from the F11 screen, so please let us hide our research capacity a little while longer.
DeepO
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Shiber
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Haifa, Israel
Jul 2002
time: 07:25
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IMHO, the deadline for establishing whether they are willing to trade contacts or not is when we finish researching writing. If we find that they would agree to such a deal, then we won't have to research map making and prepare to build a galley so soon, and should they decline, we might want to research MM right after Alphabet.
Finally, I wouldn't want to flood them with so many issues to discuss. Second tech trade tier, cartographic questions, trading contacts, patents, all in one bite seems too much. Let them have it bit by bit.
As for names for our workers, how does Farmer Joe sound?
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nbarclay
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Huntsville, Alabama
Dec 1999
time: 23:25
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I agree that having them refuse to trade us contact is our biggest danger, but on the other hand, I think we could persuade them that selling us contact is in their best interest. If our next research project is Map Making, the best Vox can hope for is to trade to us for Writing and sell it, and even that only works if the civ on the other side doesn't already have Writing when Vox makes their deal with us. (And if Vox has to offer us techs adding up to equal value before they can get Writing, that could seriously undercut their ability to get Writing in time.) A two-stage deal in which Vox trades contact and a low-cost tech for Writing in the first stage and has an agreement in place to get Code of Laws in return for Philosophy later would be similarly profitable to tech-brokering Writing, a surer thing, and much more likely to result in good relations with their neighbors. (I'm keeping the second stage as a back-up, since Vox might be willing to accept the deal without it, but that second stage would give Vox a chance to keep the trading relationship alive and profitable for at least a little while even after selling us contact.)
Nathan
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nbarclay
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Huntsville, Alabama
Dec 1999
time: 23:25
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Actually, the patent issue is in the following paragraph, but the two are definitely connected. In exchange for getting a good deal on Writing (and, in the process, getting the tech faster than thy could research it themselves), Vox would essentially give up its ability to tech broker Writing and anything we research beyond that.
As the deal stands now, it's marginal. Vox could do better tech brokering Writing if they could get it in time, but they would risk getting Writing too late to trade it for anything at all. So they may take the deal on the "a bird in the hand" principle.
Add in the second stage and the incentive is far stronger. A trade of Writing (value 8) for a value-4 tech, followed by an exchange of Code of Laws (value 10) for a Philosophy (value 6) would give them a total profit equivalent to getting Writing for free. Trying to tech-broker Writing instead would be much higher risk unless they can line up a deal in advance, and would have little chance of giving them a bigger profit.
And there's one other piece to the puzzle that I'd be inclined to offer if we have to: full exchange of all contact information. With that provision, to whatever extent we might trade Writing or some subsequent tech for further contacts, Vox could benefit from our trades.
Nathan
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DeepO
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supporting Candle'Bre
Jan 2002
time: 06:25
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Well... regarding the patent thing: I agree that it is a good deal for both sides, but 1) this is not explicitly said like that, and 2) other civs won't do it (RPG has already mentioned that they consider all techs their own once they get their hands on it, meaning they are free to broker it if they have a chance).
I thought you were talking about one tech, instead of all following techs, and I don't know if I agree to that. Of course, writing would be ours, thus Vox gives up something if they agree not to sell it to anyone, but after that it could very well be in our disadvantage. It's good to hear their feelings on patent issues, but we should discuss this more publicly amongst our own before we make a decision here... You still have to convince me it's good for us, I can imagine that other members have reservations as well 
DeepO
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22-01-2003 02:09
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