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Eli
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Israel
Jul 2000
time: 07:25
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A nice(and a bit long) summary of the polls and possible coalitions in this Haaretz article :
quote:
Freefalling Labor down to 18 seats
By Yossi Verter
With less than a week to go before the elections, Labor is a dangerous freefall. For the first time in the campaign, the largest party in the 15th Knesset could find itself with less than 19 seats in the 16th, according to the latest Ha'aretz/Dialogue poll. The anti-unity move failed. The latest zigzag in the party's propaganda blitz - emphasizing socio-economic issues - made little or no difference. Even wheeling out Shimon Peres as an alternative candidate served only to damage the standing of party chairman Amram Mitzna. The street fights and ego battles among the Labor leadership, primarily between Benjamin Ben-Eliezer and Mitzna, are scaring off the few remaining voters who still support Labor.
The rightist bloc - Likud, the National Religious Party, Shas, United Torah Judaism, the National Union-Yisrael Beiteinu faction and Herut - has a clear 66-seat bloc. The left bloc is predicted some 36 seats, and the center parties are on course for 18 seats.
With 13 seats, Shas looks like playing a central role in any post-election coalition talks. Sharon would find it difficult to turn his back on such a potent political force, especially in favor of a national secular government. On the other hand, the prime minister uses almost every public forum to express his horror and loathing at the thought of forming a rightist narrow coalition.
At Eitam's mercy
He would much prefer another unity government with Labor. If Mitzna is true to his word and Labor does not join Sharon, the prime minister would have to choose between a narrow government that would be at the mercy of Avigdor Lieberman and Effi Eitam, and an even narrower government with Tommy Lapid and Shinui, who might just entice Labor to join after all. It would not be impossible to imagine a scenario in which Shinui, hoping to stave off fresh elections, joins a Sharon-led government with ultra-Orthodox parties.
Labor is currently somewhere between 18 and 19 seats, tending toward the lower number. But with 30 percent of the those who voted Labor in 1999 still undecided, Mitzna's party is, in fact, wavering between 22-23 seats and 16-17 seats. If the entire 30 percent come home to Labor - an unlikely scenario, given the fatalistic madness that has taken hold of the party recently - it could find itself in the almost respectable region of 22-23 seats. On the other hand, if all or most of them find a saner home, Labor will find itself neck and neck with Shinui second or third-largest party. That is far from being a fanciful scenario.
In this situation, Labor has no choice but to beat its tom-tom drums and gather in every member of the clan. Mitzna will have to face the cameras and make an impassioned entreaty to Laborites everywhere: Don't desert us! Don't ruin us.
Mitzna should look at the camera and tell his voters: "Four months ago, I joined the party and was elected, with your support, to bring something new, something that represents a clear and unequivocal vision. Even if it doesn't happen immediately, it can happen in the near future, but you have to vote Labor if you don't want to crush this hope." Mitzna's subliminal message will be: If you crush me, you'll get Fuad back."
Dire straits
The deeper one digs into the bowels of the Labor Party, the more desperate the situation looks. Among first-time voters, for example, 0.0 percent (yes, zero percent) say they intend to vote Labor. Compare that to 46 percent of these 18 to 22-year-olds who say they will vote Likud. Even if first-time voters make up just 7 percent of the electorate, the trend is clear.
The Ha'aretz poll also throws up some interesting findings about leading personalities. Foreign Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, for example, is the preferred candidate to continue in that position after the elections. Among Likud voters, 23 percent would prefer to see Shimon Peres back in the Ministry of Foreign Affairs in any new unity government, while only 5 percent of Labor voters prefer Netanyahu. In the event of a narrow rightist coalition, 37.7 percent of Labor voters support Netanyahu for the post, while the more moderate Meir Sheetrit gets 25 percent support from Labor voters.
The only explanation for this Netanyahu renaissance lies in his ongoing media silence, brought on by his defeat in the Likud primaries to Sharon. The less Netanyahu talks, the less he muddies himself in the political mire. The less he appears on television, in print and in person, the closer he comes to returning to the public bosom. The public that did not want him as prime minister now sees him as an excellent and professional candidate for foreign minister. Netanyahu can only hope that the figures in this poll will guide Sharon when he comes to picking his ministers.
One ray of encouragement for Amram Mitzna: 66 percent of Labor voters do not believe he should step aside after the elections, in the event that Labor gets less than 20 seats. It appears that among Labor's ever-shrinking voter base, Mitzna is not being blamed for the expected humiliation on Tuesday. They are, it seems, willing to give him another chance, something that his predecessor/would-be replacement, Ben-Eliezer, should be worried about. Fuad's stock is going down, and not just among the general public, but among Labor voters too. He was a popular defense minister in the national unity government, but has lost his public and only 7 percent of Labor voters want him in that position in any future government. |
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Eli
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Israel
Jul 2000
time: 07:25
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In any case, the goverment wont hold for more than a year.
My prediction : Another elections in October-November.
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Eli
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Israel
Jul 2000
time: 07:25
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A week? You're being too kind.
In general, I agree. We should increase the limit from 2 Knesset seats to at least 10. This will kick out all those petty sectorial parties... Sephardi Ultra Orthodox, Russian Immigrants, Ashkenazi Ultra Orthodox, Settlers, Muslim Arabs, Christian Arabs, Secular Arabs, Northern Tel Aviv rich hippies, bleh.
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Eli
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Israel
Jul 2000
time: 07:25
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quote:
Originally posted by Azazel
I don't think so.
Ok. let's start the math.
Likud: 34-33
Avoda:18-19
Shinui: 16-17
Various Arabs: 10
Shas: 11
Meretz:7-8
National Union:7
Yahadut HaTorah:4-5
Mafdal:4-5
Israel Ba-Aliya:4
Am Ehad:4
Aleyarok:? |
Am Ehad 4? I dont think so.
Besides, methinks Kleiner is going to get 2 seats. I want him in only for the fun value, channel 33 will become much more interesting with Marzel in the Knesset.
quote:
Scenario 1: Lapid's Dream:
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Likud+Avoda+Shinui+IsraelBaAliya=33+19+16+4=72 |
How will they wage war? With hundreds of thousands leftists on the streets protesting?
How will they make peace? With hundreds of thousands rightists on the streets protesting?
Such goverment wont last in war time, or will fall before the first peace paper.
quote:
Scenario 2: Rightwing/Religious:
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Likud+Shas+YahadutHaTorah+Mafdal+NationalUnion+Sha
s+IsraelBaAliya=
33+11+4+5+7+4=64 |
Wont last. Enough for one party to start *****ing about some small issue and they go down.
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Eli
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Israel
Jul 2000
time: 07:25
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quote:
some county representation |
County representation? In Israel? What's the point?
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Eli
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Israel
Jul 2000
time: 07:25
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quote:
not only that. If the party that would get the most votes in the county will be able to nominate ALL of the county's reps, it might create a situation similar to German politics, 3-5 parties. |
But this is Israel... There is no significant voting diversity in different regions, maybe except the territories.
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Az
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MACEDONIA - It's the name of the sovereign country to the north of Greece
Apr 2000
time: 07:25
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quote:
One wants to talk, one wants to fight. That's the difference
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how is it so?!
Even meretz doesn't want to talk to afarat. They don't post it clearly in their agenda, but I was in a close-circle meeting with one of their members, and they say that they stopped believing in him.
Btw, Eli, he also said that Beilin is a complete moron. 
Sharon on the other hand, has all the reasons to strive for peace. He does hold a personal grudge against Arafat, but he also wants to go down in history as a great PM. signing peace with the arabs is the only way to do it, since the economy is in the crapper, and there is no way to restart it without global growth, and/or a peaceful solution.
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Edan
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quote:
Originally posted by Frogger
I was under the impression that meretz did want to talk, immediately. |
I get the impression that Meretz changes what he says he'll do, day by day, in a last ditch attempt to fix a sinking boat. I don't predict he'll remain head of Labor for long, especially if he continues to be against a unity government with Likud, and especially, from what I've read, Labor would get about 10 more seats if a more electable person were heading it (like Peres). (Though the one idea I like of Mitzna's is withdrawing settlements from Gaza, as this seems to be a sensible way to avoid wasting resources)
BTW, I assume Peres doesn't still think talking with Arafat is worth it? I got the impression,, back when he was in the coalition, that he was the sole member that still thought talking with Arafat was worth a shot (no, not through the head), probably trying to hold on to his peace prize legacy.
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Andrew1999
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Does Avoda=Labor?
Seems to me like Labor+Shinui would be a good combination, but I guess there aren't enough smaller parties for them to pull it off.
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Edan
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quote:
Originally posted by Andrew1999
Does Avoda=Labor?
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Yes.
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23-01-2003 15:52
Oops
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