26-01-2003 06:41									#1
	Roe v. Wade: How likely is a reversal? Support Apolyton

Was having a discussion today...was wondering what poly thinks about this.

How likely do you think it would be for the Supreme Court decision which legalized abortion to be overturned? If so, what would the consequences be politically. How do the numbers of Pro-choice v. Pro-lifers stack up in America?

	26-01-2003 06:43									#2
	Re: Roe v. Wade: How likely is a reversal? Inflate your Upload Space

quote: Originally posted by orange If so, what would the consequences be politically.

It wouldn't declare abortion illegal if that is what you mean. The issue would only be returned to where it belongs: The States.

	26-01-2003 06:46									#3
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For a reversal we would need another Anti RvW SC justice to tip the balance...

	26-01-2003 06:49									#4
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I don't think the Supremes would overturn Roe even if the balance tipped to the right-wing...

	26-01-2003 06:52									#5
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Even if Roe v. Wade were reversed, I don't think the practical effect on abortion rights would be very great. It wouldn't mean that abortion was outlawed at the federal level, just that each state would be able to pass its own laws on the subject. Even the states where a majority supports an abortion ban have minorities with political clout which would fight with everything they had to keep abortion legal. And the largest states, like New York and California, are strongly pro-choice.

	26-01-2003 06:54									#6
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Do pigs fly?

	26-01-2003 06:55									#7
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quote: Originally posted by reismark Do pigs fly?

According to Democratic partisans, they do.

	26-01-2003 06:57									#8
	Re: Re: Roe v. Wade: How likely is a reversal? Get a bigger avatar today!

quote: Originally posted by DinoDoc It wouldn't declare abortion illegal if that is what you mean. The issue would only be returned to where it belongs: The States.

Of course, but regardless, it would have political consequences...wouldn't you agree?

Does anyone know a rough estimate of the percentage of the number of Americans who are pro-choice compared to pro-life.

	26-01-2003 06:58									#9
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It's roughly about the same, according the polls I have seen Orange.

	26-01-2003 06:59									#10
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http://www.forerunner.com/forerunne...icans__Roe.html

This is rather funny if it's true. (I'm not sure about its validity.)

	26-01-2003 07:00									#11
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quote: Originally posted by Shi Huangdi For a reversal we would need another Anti RvW SC justice to tip the balance...

could happen in this presidency, no?

	26-01-2003 07:01									#12
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bah, not more states' rights BS... just an excuse for conservatives to ban abortion...

	26-01-2003 07:03									#13
	Re: Re: Re: Roe v. Wade: How likely is a reversal? Support Apolyton, buy Civilization: The Boardgame

quote: Originally posted by orange Does anyone know a rough estimate of the percentage of the number of Americans who are pro-choice compared to pro-life.

quote: 32. I'm going to read some specific situations under which an abortion might be considered. For each, please say whether you think an abortion should be legal in that situation, or illegal. 1/20/03 - Summary Table Legal Illegal No opinion a. When the woman's life is endangered 88 10 2 b. When the woman's physical health is endangered 82 14 4 c. When there's evidence the baby will be physically impaired 54 40 6 d. When the pregnancy was caused by rape or incest 81 17 2 e. When the woman is not married and does not want the baby 42 57 2 f. When the woman is in the sixth month or pregnancy or later 11 86 3 g. In late-term procedures known as dilation and extraction, or partial-birth abortions 23 69 8 Trend: a. When the woman's life is endangered Legal Illegal No opinion 1/20/03 88 10 2 1/15/01 90 8 1 1/13/98 83 15 2 7/28/96* 88 7 5 4/13/89 89 8 4 b. When the woman's physical health is endangered Legal Illegal No opinion 1/20/03 82 14 4 1/15/01 85 14 1 1/13/98 79 19 2 7/28/96* 82 11 8 c. When there's evidence the baby will be physically impaired Legal Illegal No opinion 1/20/03 54 40 6 1/13/98 58 38 4 7/28/96 53 37 10* *Gallup. No opinion and "depends" combined. d. When the pregnancy was caused by rape or incest Legal Illegal No opinion 1/20/03 81 17 2 1/15/01 83 16 2 1/13/98 78 20 2 7/28/96* 77 18 5 e. When the woman is not married and does not want the baby Legal Illegal No opinion 1/20/03 42 57 2 1/15/01 44 55 1 1/13/98 39 59 2

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-sr.../data012103.htm

	26-01-2003 07:04									#14
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With a very slight change to the members of the US Suporeme Court, Roe vs Wade couod be overturned. The Bush administration is counting on vacancies to do just that.

Judicial control is really the prime stuggle that will be waged in the coming 2 years. The right wing knows that if it can get control for a short time it will have judges that will reflect right-wing values for a generation.

	26-01-2003 07:05									#15
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quote: Originally posted by cavebear With a very slight change to the members of the US Suporeme Court, Roe vs Wade couod be overturned. The Bush administration is counting on vacancies to do just that. Judicial control is really the prime stuggle that will be waged in the coming 2 years. The right wing knows that if it can get control for a short time it will have judges that will reflect right-wing values for a generation.

one of the many problems with the out-dated American democracy...

	26-01-2003 07:10									#16
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thanks DinoDoc

	26-01-2003 07:42									#17
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quote: Originally posted by Sava one of the many problems with the out-dated American democracy...

It's one of those "balance of power" things that no one else seems to understand...

	26-01-2003 07:55									#18
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quote: How likely do you think it would be for the Supreme Court decision which legalized abortion to be overturned? If so, what would the consequences be politically. How do the numbers of Pro-choice v. Pro-lifers stack up in America?

Unlikely. The court had a chance to do it in 1992, and in fact most of the justices then thought that Roe was a streach, but in Planned Parenthood v. Casey the 3 most moderate justices said it is important that the court sticks to precedent because to reverse Roe would make the court lose public favoribility.

Though most of the court (include some moderate lefties) believed that Roe was decided wrongly.

	26-01-2003 08:02									#19
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quote: Originally posted by Imran Siddiqui the 3 most moderate justices said it is important that the court sticks to precedent because to reverse Roe would make the court lose public favoribility.

That seems like a fairly weak reason to affirm precedent whose legal basis you disagree with.

	26-01-2003 08:09									#20
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Well that's what Scalia said and that is the common critique... but remember that's the basis for the court deciding what it has since the beginning. Remember in Marbury v. Madison there was little proof that the Judiciary Act of 1789 gave the SC original jurisdiction over writs of mandamus, but Marshall said it did, so he could say that Jefferson had to follow his order, which Marshall knew he wouldn't and which would make the court seem weak.

	26-01-2003 08:16									#21
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I don't know that I agree with the contention that overturning Roe would cause the Court to loose public favoribility though.

	26-01-2003 08:19									#22
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Look at some of the lefties on this site, DD .

They'd be calling for the abolishment of the Supreme Court after that hypothetical ruling .

Hell, I may be pro-choice, but I still think Roe was decided wrongly.

	26-01-2003 08:22									#23
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When has public ridicule ever stopped the Court from venturing into a public issue before anyway? I can name several cases off the top of my head that caused full scale riots after the opinion was handed down.

	26-01-2003 08:33									#24
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Yeah, but most of them were Warren Court decisions, where they didn't give a damn. Public ridicule stopped the court in Marbury[i] and it stops the court all the time. You just don't notice it because the court denies cert (such as the gun control issue).

[i]Planned Parenthood was granted cert because the Court wanted to assert that you could put restrictions on abortion.

	26-01-2003 09:50									#25
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Unlikely indeed, before they get to the basic Roe vs Wade, they can spend a decade rolling back the various extensions made to it.

	26-01-2003 10:23									#26
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Although I don't believe in abortion myself, it does seem archaic that a woman should not have control of her own body, that government does. I'm Catholic and abortion is against my religion. Some people may think that belief is archaic also, but I support it.

	26-01-2003 11:55									#27
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Was there ever a time when some politician *wasn't* trying to stack the Supreme Court (or, for that matter, any federal court) with some damn right-wing judges or screwball left-wing judges? Whatever the hell happened to a non-political judiciary?

As for abortion rights, that decision is an intensely *personal* one and should be up to the prospective parents and no one else. They're the ones who will bear the price of whatever decision is made, not some Joe or Jane Public politician.

Gatekeeper

	26-01-2003 12:01									#28
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quote: Originally posted by Gatekeeper As for abortion rights, that decision is an intensely *personal* one and should be up to the prospective parents and no one else. They're the ones who will bear the price of whatever decision is made, not some Joe or Jane Public politician. Gatekeeper

	26-01-2003 20:22									#29
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quote: Originally posted by Gatekeeper Whatever the hell happened to a non-political judiciary?

They went the way of the unicorn.

	26-01-2003 20:28									#30
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quote: Originally posted by DinoDoc They went the way of the unicorn.

So the "balance of power" is just an illusion.