28-01-2003 15:13									#1
	Inventory of Claims Made by Each Team Avatar Enlargement: We've got the solution

INVENTORY OF CLAIMS MADE BY EACH TEAM:

(as requested by Togas)

Glory of War

- GoW gave Lux Horseback Riding (believable)
- Lux promised not to trade on Horseback Riding to RP Team (believable)
- Lux was the party that insisted on techs not being traded on to other parties (possible)
- Lux insisted upon the trade being secret (possible)
- Lux generally insists in every PM and agreement that all correspondance and agreements be kept secret (questionable)
- GoW, ND, and Lux have made a "Technology Alliance" and Role-Play Team has been explicitly left out (extremely doubtful)
- RP Team was left out of the Technology Alliance on the sole basis of the cooling in relations with Glory of War (extremely doubtful - only possible if Lux was laughing their a--es off at GoW's stupidity for believing it)
- ND has agreed to let GoW forces through its territory (extremely doubtful)
- GoW intends to bee-line for Map Making so that they can settle an island to their West (doubtful)
- GoW does not intend to fight an early war, but is hoping to trade techs with the other teams on our continent to gain a technology edge over off-continent opponents and invade them (doubtful)
- Lux seems to have contact with Vox (confirmed by Vox)

Lux Invicta

- Lux is researching/researched Horseback Riding on its own (extremely doubtful)
- GoW never insisted upon Lux Invicta not passing on Horseback Riding to RP Team (extremely doubtful)
- Gow is preparing for war (questionable - and how on earth would Lux even know??? it's extremely dobutful that Lux would know this, but only questionable that it's not true)
- ND is amassing forces on its border with Lux (questionable - they very well MIGHT be doing it as a reaction against Lux's aggressiveness toward ND, the only thing making this remotely believable)
- ND has been the aggressor toward Lux Invicta and has made many aggressive gestures (extremely doubtful other than that it's believable as a REACTION what Lux has likely done)

Neu Demogyptica

- Lux followed their settler with a warrior very early in the game (believable)
- Lux has invaded ND's territory with a warrior near their capital (possible)
- ND is having to prepare war against Lux because of Lux's aggressiveness toward ND (believable)
- ND is considering asking for GoW's assistance against Lux even though ND doesn't trust GoW (believable)
- ND considers RP Team a friend (possible)

Vox Controli

- Vox has contact with Lux (extremely believable)
- Hopes to get Writing in the near future - presumably from GS (believable)

-------------------------

If there are claims I am forgetting, PLEASE remind me. I will add them to the lists.

	28-01-2003 15:16									#2
	Support Apolyton, pre-order Civilization IV

Sorry for typos... too tired to fix those right now. I've gotta go. Be back later

	28-01-2003 22:23									#3
	Re: Inventory of Claims Made by Each Team Increase the size of your Attachments

I asked Arnelos to do this last night, but I have some time this morning and wish to post a thorough review.

We know enough of the character of the different leaders to ascribe a value of truth/falsity to any statement made by that leader (in the absence of any other evidence). Nimitz of Legoland currently has the most credibility with us. Jon Miller I place at a close second.

Trip is somewhere in the middle. He can be very frank and knows what not to lie about, but he knows when to bluff and when to mix truth and fiction convincingly.

GhengisFarb will say anything clever that comes to mind, true or false. He especially enjoys slipping in true bits of juicey information, mostly to lord over you his superiority and show us that he rabidly seeks out information to use to his advantage.

I still do not have enough information on ND and GS to make any credibility assessment. We should try to get more contacts and "chat" with them more often.

(taken from Arnelos's list. I have also added a few)

Glory of War

- GoW gave Lux Horseback Riding

Trip verified this in chat on 1/27 after some prodding.

- Lux promised not to trade on Horseback Riding to RP Team

Trip verified this in chat on 1/27 but claims that it was a result of a single-trade agreement, probably because Lux got HBR very cheaply, details still unknown. Trip indicated that they would trade us HBR if our deal with GoW fell apart.

- Lux was the party that insisted on techs not being traded on to other parties

Likely false. As further info will show, Lux is a trading machine. Trip said that they promised GoW not to trade us HBR, but the benefit of this bargain goes to GoW and I see no reason why Lux would add it to the deal. GoW probably added it to the deal because Lux was giving them so little for HBR.

- Lux insisted upon the trade being secret

Likely, as Lux was telling us they were researching Horseback Riding.

- Lux generally insists in every PM and agreement that all correspondance and agreements be kept secret

Very likely, as Trip told me that we should put language in our PMs from now on that "all of this information is to be kept confidential after we had a short argument about us giving away important secrets to other teams.

(note: neither GoW and Lux are very good at keeping such things secret)

- GoW, ND, and Lux have made a "Technology Alliance" and Role-Play Team has been explicitly left out

A huge load of bull. Lux is a techwhore and GoW is trying to rely on other teams to suppliment their research so their war engine can charge up. ND is the odd-man out that Lux seems to be (from both ND and Lux's accounts) in a Cold War with. ND neither confirms nor denies this. Trip denies this. Given the improbability of this claim and the fact that Trip denies it, I do not believe it is true.

- RP Team was left out of the Technology Alliance on the sole basis of the cooling in relations with Glory of War

This is just GF flexing his wings trying to show us that he can hurt us diplomaticaly. I give it no credibility. The evidence is to the contrary and Trip continues to try to make deals with us, and ND wants to trade us Mathematics for Writings down the road. No one would be foolish enough to give up their trade opportunities because GoW insisted that they do it.

- ND has agreed to let GoW forces through its territory

This should be verified with ND only to get ND's reaction and make them more angry with GoW. However, GoW can, at this point, still move around ND territory.

- GoW intends to bee-line for Map Making so that they can settle an island to their West

GhengisFarb, in his tech alliance email that fell on deft ears, proposed that his team research Mapmaking. They need writing to get it. They're acting very desperate for Writing. There's a reason they want it. This claim could be true.

- GoW does not intend to fight an early war, but is hoping to trade techs with the other teams on our continent to gain a technology edge over off-continent opponents and invade them

Their UU is a middle-ages unit. Their grouping with us on this continent could give all four nations a huge tech advantage over the other three. However, the best and least corrupt land GoW can take is here, not overseas. Would they seriously go after Legoland? Would they invade Vox and GS? Do they even know where Vox and GS are?

- Lux seems to have contact with Vox (confirmed)

Trip confirmed in chat on 1/27 that they had contact with Vox, and then Jon_Miller confirmed that they have contact with Lux.

- GoW, ND, and Lux have compared maps of Spain and know about all of our land and resources (Ghengis even mentioned our luxes ... spices, silk/dyes [one or the other], ivory, gems, iron.

Everything except the spices and ivory GoW has seen with their own units. Ivory has been spotted by ND's scout. Spices may be a good guess, may be a result of our RP, or may be a result of a ND scout we never knew about. I find it highly unlikely that ND would share this information with GoW, but it is possible, however it does not mean that they are in cohoots. They exchange could have simply been as a result of gossip.

- ND is sending settlers south.

Uncertain, but possibe. Trip says that they are competeing with ND for sites in the north, and GoW is likely trying to get ND to settle the south ... and backing it up by telling them all of the luxuries and space we have down here.

Lux Invicta

- Lux is researching/researched Horseback Riding on its own

Discovered to be false as Trip finally admitted they received it in trade with GoW.

- GoW never insisted upon Lux Invicta not passing on Horseback Riding to RP Team

... actually, this should be reversed. Trip informed me that they promised not to trade us HBR unless GoW didn't trade it to us (due to our conflicts). GoW claims that Lux promised not to trade it ... in order to make us assume that GoW had a monopoly. What is true is unclear other than there was some sort of agreement attached to the trade, and each side is trying to spin it to their own advantage.

- Gow is preparing for war

This is probably pure propoganda as our military strength = GoW's. No evidence that anyone is preparing for war.

- ND is amassing forces on its border with Lux

ND claims that Lux is sending units into their territory. Lux's claim isn't very credible. Lux is probably saying this to justify their own behavior. They are clearly rivals with ND.

- ND has been the aggressor toward Lux Invicta and has made many aggressive gestures

ND claims that Lux is the aggressor, and I find their claim to be more credible.


Neu Demogyptica

- Lux followed their settler with a warrior very early in the game

Lux has not disputed this, but countered that ND broke their settlement agreement. Likely because of an incident such as this.

- Lux has invaded ND's territory with a warrior near their capital

Should be verified with Lux for comment.

- ND is having to prepare war against Lux because of Lux's aggressiveness toward ND

ND has to prepare for war, period. They're in the middle. Someone is going to get them at some point.

- ND is considering asking for GoW's assistance against Lux even though ND doesn't trust GoW

Very Credible. Trip has also expressed his concern about a ND + GoW alliance, probably as a result of their Cold War with ND. This is likely why he seeks an alliance with us, and also why he agrees to uneven trades with GoW. He's trying to keep ND from getting allies against Lux.

- ND considers RP Team a friend

Hopefully this is true. They do seem to be acting as if they believe it.

Vox Controli

- Vox has contact with Lux (extremely believable)

Verified by Trip and Jon_Miller

- Hopes to get Writing in the near future - presumably from GS

Actually, this is not true. Jon_Miller told me that they hope to get Writing from Lux! Lux told them they were researching it ... just as Lux told us they were researching Riding. Lux seems to use the "we're researching it" ploy a lot in trade negotiations.

(I will add more as they come to me)

--Togas

	28-01-2003 23:07									#4
	Lose 30 kilos (of popups)

quote: Originally posted by Togas - GoW, ND, and Lux have compared maps of Spain and know about all of our land and resources (Ghengis even mentioned our luxes ... spices, silk/dyes [one or the other], ivory, gems, iron. Everything except the spices and ivory GoW has seen with their own units. Ivory has been spotted by ND's scout. Spices may be a good guess, may be a result of our RP, or may be a result of a ND scout we never knew about. I find it highly unlikely that ND would share this information with GoW, but it is possible, however it does not mean that they are in cohoots. They exchange could have simply been as a result of gossip.

If ND's scout has not seen our spices and GoW's warriors have not seen our spices...

Have we considered the possibility that GhengisFarb is cheating by using the reload bug?

I'm being entirely serious here... the claim that GoW, ND, and Lux have traded partial maps of Spain seriously stretches the boundaries of believability on its own.

To believe in addition that they have a phantom unit in our territory we don't know about is simply ludicrous.

The chances of there being a trade of map information and them making a lucky guess about a fourth luxury is equally ludicrous.

When you start stacking all of those highly improbable things together, the chance that GhengisFarb simply cheated (even if unlikely) becomes more likely than the chance of all of the above taking place in concurrance being true (ESPECIALLY correctly guessing about spices or having a phantom unit in our territory).

Quite frankly, I'm highly disapointed... because I think this means he very well might have cheated and then made up the whole business about sharing partial maps with ND and Lux.

Way to check:

Ask ND whether or not they traded any partial map information with GoW. Tell them frankly that we are concerned about GoW claiming they got information from ND that ND could only partially have, as the rest could not possibly have been obtained from ND's scout. Tell them frankly that we are concerned about GoW having cheated.

Under those conditions, I'm pretty sure ND will tell us whether or not they gave GoW what information and perhaps even explicitly what information was given (since whether or not a team cheated is at stake).

If it turns out that ND didn't give anything to GoW, we take this to the public forum.

EDIT: This would also serve to explain Lux's claimed "spy" problem if that claim is anything other than yet another bold-faced lie.

	28-01-2003 23:22									#5
	Get a bigger avatar today!

As I said last night in the chats, I recall at least one of our ambassadors talking about sitting down to eat "spicy squid". That may have been what triggered the spice suspicisions.

	28-01-2003 23:27									#6
	Support Apolyton, buy Galactic Civilizations: Deluxe Edition

quote: Originally posted by dejon As I said last night in the chats, I recall at least one of our ambassadors talking about sitting down to eat "spicy squid". That may have been what triggered the spice suspicisions.

I still think GhengisFarb is cheating now...

But if that was actually said (and I realize I'm one to talk...), people should PLEASE keep their mouths shut about stuff like that. The decision to give away information like that should be a TEAM decision or at least that of the despot, not any given individual on the team who decides he wants to make a comment about how he's using spices on his squid...

	29-01-2003 00:30									#7
	Get a bigger avatar today!

ND's scout could easily have seen our spices. I can't find back his exact position, but in the 2250BC report Togas said they were North of the Elephants Valley. If they headed East next (which was the more logical choice as there were slower terrains towards the south and the west), they would have quickly reached the spices.

	29-01-2003 01:27									#8
	Re: Re: Inventory of Claims Made by Each Team Avatar Enlargement: We've got the solution

quote: Originally posted by Togas - GoW, ND, and Lux have compared maps of Spain and know about all of our land and resources (Ghengis even mentioned our luxes ... spices, silk/dyes [one or the other], ivory, gems, iron. Everything except the spices and ivory GoW has seen with their own units. Ivory has been spotted by ND's scout. Spices may be a good guess, may be a result of our RP, or may be a result of a ND scout we never knew about. I find it highly unlikely that ND would share this information with GoW, but it is possible, however it does not mean that they are in cohoots. They exchange could have simply been as a result of gossip.

ND's maps (due to their d@#% scouts' movement rates) are going to be very valuable. When MapMaking comes around it will surely be and maybe is now if they are whoring it in jpeg format. This is a concern. Even if we REX successfully, we will have done so in lands that are already everybody's business.

This may be another reason GoW doesn't want to lose out on Writing. With MapMaking, they will make up the knowledge in short time.

	29-01-2003 04:47									#9
	Support Apolyton buy from Amazon

What Neu Demogyptica has as yet said is, I think, fairly credible, to my mind anyway. I don't see what they would stand to gain from lying about an Ottoman invasion, it makes sense enough if they were followed before, and we would soon know the truth as it is. It doesn't make sense that they would concoct such a plot, and so I am inclined to believe them.

Hernan de History Guy Calamari the Younger
Ambassador to Neu Demogyptica

	29-01-2003 19:58									#10
	Put an end to popups!

quote: Originally posted by Arnelos If ND's scout has not seen our spices and GoW's warriors have not seen our spices... Have we considered the possibility that GhengisFarb is cheating by using the reload bug?

We only have two Spice resources, there is one in ND's territory and that means the rest are most likely scattered on the continent.

Therefore it is likely they have one and are guessing at where the rest of them are. They most likely think we have a large bunch like the ivory and are unaware we only have two.

I have no idea why ND would share info on Ivory to GoW unless they were encouraging them to come south. Perhaps an attempt to divert GoW's military attention away from their own territory? Any attempt into either team's mind processes make me feel 'dirty'.

Both GoW and ND know about the Gems and Silk. Currently, the only thing we have a chance of keeping secret is the Ivory and the two Iron.

And the southern coast's wheat resources.

While I trust our noble leadership's experience with the players of the other teams, I still haven't seen anything warlike from the GoW warmongers. They seem to be using more of a builder strategy. Considering how they have twisted things it is still a possibility in my mind that they are coordinating a tech system up north.

What if the warmonger theme is another falsehood? Perhaps they are playing a completely different strategy than warmongering.

They appear to be the swing team, both Lux and ND seem to want GoW on their side in a potential war between the two which would give them some leverage to use the two teams to advance their tech tree.

Those are just my observations and I readily admit to not have that much experience with the members of these teams.

	29-01-2003 20:13									#11
	Full PM-box? Change here!

Hey guys, let's try not to be too innocent here. I think that Arnelos is making a good point here. If we can find a way to ask ND and Lux if they changed maps with GoW we should do it. Lets not acuse anyone of cheating without proves, but lets do as much as we can to confirm our suspices.

I know that we are too honest to cheat, and it seems good to me because cheating is not fun. But this does not mean the same for the other teams.

	29-01-2003 20:29									#12
	Remove this text

I am sad that cheating is mentionned in this game. This game was designed to learn how to play against humans; I dont see the point in cheating. Anyway, this subject cannot be brought outside without extremely convincing evidence, not only logical deductions. We must remind the Reddawk accusation.

	30-01-2003 03:20									#13
	Get a bigger avatar today!

DAVOUT,

I agree... which is why I suggest that we ask ND what they traded with GoW. If ND says they did trade some map info with GoW, then the whole deal is off (mostly... there's still the matter of those spices...).

I agree that it would take extraordinary proof to make a claim that another team was cheating.

HOWEVER, if GoW exhibits more suspicions over the future of potential cheating, eventually pattern of potential cheating may develop... as whoever is performing such cheating continues to believe that others have not caught on to his game, he'll become increasingly secure in that no-one will ever notice.

If we collect information of such a pattern over time, that would be far more convincing than a single incident.

So I agree.

	30-01-2003 06:34									#14
	Inflate your Upload Space

Exactly. It shocks me very much. I hope the allegations are false, but all the same, they must be looked into.

	30-01-2003 07:01									#15
	Support Apolyton buy from Amazon

If someone on this team had said, "Look, I reloaded the save and used GoWs save. Well, they have 2 settlers wandering north of Madrid, and got wine and iron... mnehehee! ", then I would be really sad and mad. And so would you, right?

- I believe this is the case on other teams too (even though they are quite smaller) Many posters on GoW would protest when they discovered a teammate cheated, I assume?

	30-01-2003 08:42									#16
	Support Apolyton buy from Amazon

PlagueRat,

My suspicion is that GhengisFarb might be cheating on his own w/o informing his own team that he is doing so. Because he is conducting negotiations with leaders from other teams, his team (much as we are doing) could dismiss the gathering of certain information as merely things he could have picked up from other teams in discussion.

Likewise, his statement of what luxuries we have was made to OUR team I believe in a private chat, not to his own team. Thus he might feel more free to use information he gained from illicit means because we honestly don't know what information he has come by honestly and what information he might have come by dishonestly and must assume it all to be honestly obtained.

Since this particular case is somewhat suspicious, we should watch for the accumulation of any other equally suspicious cases. If none other occur, it was probably something other than cheating. If a pattern of such suspicious cases develop, we have to seriously consider cheating as a very real possibility.

My point is that the leader of a team, who has direct influence on decision-making, could conceivably cheat, not let the rest of his team know about, and yet still have their team reap the rewards of cheating... since team policy would be based upon his increased knowledge base.

If such a cheater were to become cocky with that no-one seems to notice that he is cheating, however, that is where he leaves opportunity for him to be caught.

	30-01-2003 08:46									#17
	Get a bigger avatar today!

I deplore the idea, but i know its quite possible

Ghengis could have, when he finished his very first turn, sent the save to us, but then played our first turn as well, as he could have entered "no password" when openning OUR save

after that, he could see our start position, and explore for the first turn only, cuz it would loop around to password protected saves before he could explore more for us.

but he could have seen our start position before we did.

	30-01-2003 10:53									#18
	Increase Your PM Length

Someone on our team might as well have thoughtlessy slipped out a cue about 'a luxury' in a chat or something, for what we know? Eventually, GoW will know about these luxuries, and its not of strategical importence for them. So why this big deal?
Well, it's the principle... - To keep the homelands a secret.


Remember:
Everyones just gotta keep their mouths shut about terrain issues, out there.

	30-01-2003 19:11									#19
	Re: Re: Inventory of Claims Made by Each Team Support Apolyton, buy Civilization III: Complete

quote: Originally posted by Togas - Lux seems to have contact with Vox (confirmed) Trip confirmed in chat on 1/27 that they had contact with Vox, and then Jon_Miller confirmed that they have contact with Lux.

How could this be possible ?

No one has Map Making yet, thus no one could build galleys.

If we assume that Legoland is on an island at the West of ND and GoW, and that Vox and GS are on a continent at the South of Legoland, I cant believe that Lux has direct contact with Vox.

IIRC, no one can give communications to other civs before Writing is owned. For me the only way the contact Lux-Vox were possible is that Legoland has already Writing and they have contact to Vox because their two landmass are very close each other (they can contact each other through units in their sight instead of landing from galleys). And that Lego and GoW are very close each-other too.

If this is true, Lego has sold his Vox contact to GoW and GoW has forwarded the contact to Lux.

Any thoughts ?

	30-01-2003 23:20									#20
	Support Apolyton, buy Galactic Civilizations

There are two ways that Lux may have contact with Vox.

1) Their "island" is actually connected to our continent somewhere in the north east. (unlikely)

2) Their "island" is close enough to our continent that a warrior on the shore of their land could see a warrior on the shore of our land. You can make contact with any units that you can see, even if you are not next to each other.

My guess is #2

--Togas

	31-01-2003 02:14									#21
	Support Apolyton, buy Civilization III: Complete

Thank you Togas,

I dont remember very well the shape of our continents from the mini-maps. And I don't find the thread on it. Could anyone post here the right link, or repost the composed mini-map ?

	31-01-2003 03:05									#22
	Put an end to popups!

We never got a mini-map from Vox. THey had only told us were they approxamately were at.

It seems now that IF we had Vox's mini-map, that we would have guessed that they could have made contact with Lux a lot sooner.

Eta Tamali

	31-01-2003 08:43									#23
	Support Apolyton, buy Alpha Centauri

quote: Originally posted by Togas There are two ways that Lux may have contact with Vox. 1) Their "island" is actually connected to our continent somewhere in the north east. (unlikely) 2) Their "island" is close enough to our continent that a warrior on the shore of their land could see a warrior on the shore of our land. You can make contact with any units that you can see, even if you are not next to each other. My guess is #2 --Togas

Didn't Vox mention an isthmus as some point in our dialogue with them? As we haven't seen the barbarian lands of the north ourselves it might still be possible for option #1.