02-02-2003 23:36									#1
	The problem with revealing US intel on Iraq Support Apolyton, buy GURPS/ Alpha Centauri

This from Slate

"More serious are intercepts from telephone conversations, which Bush suggested in his State of the Union message that we possess. Information from them could be revealing enough to prompt Iraq's leaders to shut down certain phone lines?and possibly kill people whose lines were tapped.

There is a precedent here. In the late 1970s, an anti-detente CIA analyst leaked to the columnist Jack Anderson some transcripts of phone conversations from Leonid Brezhnev's car, suggesting (or so the analyst thought) that Soviet delegates to the SALT II arms control talks were manipulating the treaty to allow them to keep building certain types of ICBMs that the American negotiators thought would be banned. After Anderson published the leak, the tap on the car disappeared?as did the Soviet mechanic whom the CIA had hired to install it."

Wonder how many people pressing for the US to reveal evidence will accept responsibity for those who die as a result?????

	02-02-2003 23:39									#2
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If any 'smoking gun' information is released, it unfortunately won't be public because of this sort of problem.

	02-02-2003 23:39									#3
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They'll reveal the info because so many people have demanded they do so. Yes, agents will die because of it and there will now be fewer people who want to work with U.S. intelligence bacause of it.

	03-02-2003 00:55									#4
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Hopefully it wont come to that, accepting deaths and all.

I wonder why those staunchly apposed to war are just so convinced Bush is lying about this evidence. I mean it is definately a possibilty, but I'm more than willing to keep an open mind considering the situation, the background, and the obvious consequences if such evidence is revealed prematurely... besides, if he is lying, then come the end of the war, and nothing is found (very unlikely in my opinion), comes the end of Bush's career . And Im sure he knows this... he aint just a dumb 'merican, as much as many here would like to think.

Kman

	03-02-2003 00:57									#5
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A large number of them just hate Bush and would cut off their own noses to spite him.

	03-02-2003 01:07									#6
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I'd love the US intelligence not to reveal intelligence to the public, but to the inspectors. If the US has so much information already, I suppose it should help speed up the inspection process.
Plus, if the inspectors come with the proof the US already has, all the diplomatic waltz would stop, and the war would begin, much to the profit of Bush.

	03-02-2003 01:41									#7
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quote: Originally posted by Spiffor I'd love the US intelligence not to reveal intelligence to the public, but to the inspectors. If the US has so much information already, I suppose it should help speed up the inspection process. Plus, if the inspectors come with the proof the US already has, all the diplomatic waltz would stop, and the war would begin, much to the profit of Bush.

Perhaps the information that intellegence possesses is not that type of information, as far as being exact locations of stuff (which is no doubt changing everyday anyway). There are a million different types of damning evidence, it doesnt have to be something that could help the inspectors, else for the reasons you said, Bush would most certainly jump on the chance to tell the inspectors. Telling the inspectors what actual intel we have however may not be helpful in anyway, it could even be a liability, depending on the type of intel.... gah im tired... i dunno if anything i said made any sense...

Kman

	03-02-2003 02:10									#8
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If you had a friend who constantly lied to you, would you continue to give him the benefit of the doubt? Well, that's what you chicken-hawks are asking us to do. The US has a history of lying to the world and especially the American people. Until proven otherwise, the US government is untrustworthy.

	03-02-2003 02:23									#9
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quote: Originally posted by chegitz guevara If you had a friend who constantly lied to you, would you continue to give him the benefit of the doubt? Well, that's what you chicken-hawks are asking us to do. The US has a history of lying to the world and especially the American people. Until proven otherwise, the US government is untrustworthy.

true enough. but it will be Bush's downfall, mind you, if he invades and it is revealed their was never any evidence, for the very reason you speak of, lack of credibility.

People speak of conspiracy theories and elaboarte plans of the US to plant WoMD and stuff, to try and cover this up and cover their ass, but that is all too far-fetched for me. I dont see how anything like that under the surely scrutinous eye of world media and governments after an invaions occurs could ever be successful without discovery... like I've said before, Bush isnt stupid. Again, he would be ruined if he tried this and failed.

Time will tell, i suppose.

Kman

	03-02-2003 02:28									#10
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Bush will do this, but most probably away from cameras. Other countries would have just too much interests not speaking about it, they'll be stunningly silent if they know how the US army planted WMDs.
You can be sure Bush / Blair will say "I told you so" when the war is over. They need legitimation for the next war after all.

	03-02-2003 02:30									#11
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The American people will support Bush after the war no matter what. They may not wish to go to war, but once war begins the country will be behind him 80%. After the war is over, it won't matter if he lied or there are no weapons of mass destruction.

The main reason, I think, that people are demanding Bush reveal the evidence is because they feel that Iraq should be disarmed peacefully, and that Bush is trying to thwart this so that he has an excuse to go to war.

I do think Iraq has WoMD and that they aren't complying. I don't care. Iraq has been deterred successfully for twelve years, it can go on indefinately. Iraq is no threat to the US nor to its neighbors anymore. This whole dog and pony show about inspections is just a shell game to get people to take their focus off the real issue, which is the US solidifying it's hegemony.

Even if you're totally pro-American, think on this. No empire has ever survived. No empire ever falls gracefully. If you love America, why are you trying to condemn her future to one of war, hatred, and collapse?

	03-02-2003 02:33									#12
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Does this mean that you are for continuing the sanction regime che?

	03-02-2003 02:37									#13
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Smart sanctions only.

	03-02-2003 02:39									#14
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quote: Originally posted by chegitz guevara Smart sanctions only.

I'm of the opinion that term is an example of doublespeak but I'm open to you telling me how that would be better than the status quo.

	03-02-2003 03:09									#15
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Sanctions that simply target Iraq's capacity to make weapons of war. Everything else is fine. Let the economy recover, let Iraq sell all the oil it can, etc. Perhaps have the UN take over all of Iraq's P.O.E.s.

	03-02-2003 03:19									#16
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quote: Originally posted by chegitz guevara Sanctions that simply target Iraq's capacity to make weapons of war. Everything else is fine.

How do you deal with dual use items?

	03-02-2003 03:30									#17
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Set rational limits on importation (how much chlorine does Bahgdad need for water treatment, etc.) and have inspectors make sure that none of it gets diverted.

	03-02-2003 03:44									#18
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Great, we've all let Bush off the hook by going down this road. In short the administration probably has some evidence but they have basically hoodwinked everybody into agreeing that this is sufficient for going to war.

The real question should be, "even if Iraq has weapons of mass destruction, is force justified."

It's not clear that the answer to this is "yes" since the Iraqi regime has proved itself deterrable in the past.

Read: http://www.foreignpolicy.com/wwwboard/walts.html

They probably do have some chemical and perhaps some biological weapons. Who cares? Plenty of other states do too. The notion that Iraq would give such weapons to terrorists when they could be traced back to Iraq is risible. Saddam Hussein is an evil despot, but he didn't get to where he is by being stupid.

This is a war for other reasons. What they are I am not quite sure (though I have some suspicions) but it's not about what they say it is.

	03-02-2003 03:47									#19
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quote: Originally posted by Agathon Read: http://www.foreignpolicy.com/wwwboard/walts.html

There is already a thread on this. Go there if you insist on brining it up.

	03-02-2003 04:33									#20
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It's relevant here - it speaks to the question of sanctions and deterrence which CG raised.

But...

I wasn't aware that you'd started a whole new thread about it. I linked to this article last week and I thought no one had noticed.

Bad me.

Last edited by Agathon on 03-02-2003 at 04:38

	03-02-2003 04:42									#21
	Re: The problem with revealing US intel on Iraq Enter the AD-FREE zone

Hopefully, the administration and the CIA have been preparing and making sure that sources are protected. However, there is certainly the possibility that some will lose their lives, and they knew that by becoming such a source, they were putting their lives a risk. Some of that information, however, may be important enough that it may have to put people at risk because it needs to be released - if that's the case, it's a horrible decision to have to make.

	03-02-2003 04:47									#22
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quote: Originally posted by Kramerman Perhaps the information that intellegence possesses is not that type of information, as far as being exact locations of stuff (which is no doubt changing everyday anyway). There are a million different types of damning evidence, it doesnt have to be something that could help the inspectors, else for the reasons you said, Bush would most certainly jump on the chance to tell the inspectors. Telling the inspectors what actual intel we have however may not be helpful in anyway, it could even be a liability, depending on the type of intel

Suppose this info is damning in ways that telling the inspectors will not help them uncover what they are looking for. Why doesn't the US at least tell the UN Security Council members this info? That way Bush doesn't need to b!tch about the UN doing nothing. He can convince them with actual evidence that Iraq is a threat. Instead all that is happening is that Bush is hoping the UN will see his way without the need for evidence. A frightening, frightening man.

	03-02-2003 05:58									#23
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quote: Originally posted by Kramerman I wonder why those staunchly apposed to war are just so convinced Bush is lying about this evidence.

The problem is that he won't release what he has even to the UN inspectors. Blix has spoken out on a number of occasions now, publicly challenging both Bush and Blair to reveal their intelligence, but nothing's come of it. I don't expect full public disclosure, but if the head of the inspection team can't even get his hands on it, it more than indicates to me that they don't really have anything conclusive.

	03-02-2003 06:02									#24
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quote: Originally posted by Kramerman ... like I've said before, Bush isnt stupid.

That's a matter of personal opinion of course.

	03-02-2003 06:07									#25
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quote: Originally posted by DinoDoc Does this mean that you are for continuing the sanction regime che?

Why not? Now that the inspectors are back in there, what can he possibly get away with? As long as he knows that if he expels them once again there'll be war. Consider it a form of parole; as long as he abides by the conditions, he doesn't get his ass kicked.

And yes it will cost a lot of money to have an insection team there on a permanent basis, but it will probably be a lot cheaper than engaging in an all-out war!

	03-02-2003 06:11									#26
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quote: Originally posted by Willem Why not?

che's one of the people that complains about the lives that the sanction regime has cost.

	03-02-2003 09:39									#27
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quote: Originally posted by MrWhereItsAt Suppose this info is damning in ways that telling the inspectors will not help them uncover what they are looking for. Why doesn't the US at least tell the UN Security Council members this info? That way Bush doesn't need to b!tch about the UN doing nothing. He can convince them with actual evidence that Iraq is a threat. Instead all that is happening is that Bush is hoping the UN will see his way without the need for evidence. A frightening, frightening man.

They are going to do just that to some extent according to the administration. Keep in mind that the security council always has such staunch U.S. allies as China and France sitting on it. Any information given to the security council might as well be handed straight to the Iraqis. Ditto information given to the inspectors, who hail from many countries and work far at least as many intelligence agencies. Thus the administration has been hesitant to reveal its information. Informers are not easy to get in a state like Iraq, and developing an effective (non-human) method for gathering intelligence often takes a considerable effort, man-years of labor and millions of dollars. It's a lot to risk, especially if you have good reason to believe that many on the security council would be happy to turn the information over to those who could do you harm.

	03-02-2003 09:58									#28
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quote: Originally posted by chegitz guevara I do think Iraq has WoMD and that they aren't complying. I don't care. Iraq has been deterred successfully for twelve years, it can go on indefinately. Iraq is no threat to the US nor to its neighbors anymore.

What makes you think that we can continue to deter Iraq indefinitely? The containment of Iraq isn't a cost-free endeavor as you would have us believe. Two of the major reasons for anti-Americanism in the region (sanctions on Iraq and US forces in Saudi Arabia) are direct effects of containing Iraq. These issues will only generate more hatred of America as time goes on, so why do you think that America can afford to deter Saddam forever? You would think that 9/11 would've woken people up to the fact that our policies in the region need to be changed...

	03-02-2003 13:00									#29
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quote: Originally posted by Drake Tungsten quote: Originally posted by chegitz guevara I do think Iraq has WoMD and that they aren't complying. I don't care. Iraq has been deterred successfully for twelve years, it can go on indefinately. Iraq is no threat to the US nor to its neighbors anymore. What makes you think that we can continue to deter Iraq indefinitely? The containment of Iraq isn't a cost-free endeavor as you would have us believe. Two of the major reasons for anti-Americanism in the region (sanctions on Iraq and US forces in Saudi Arabia) are direct effects of containing Iraq. These issues will only generate more hatred of America as time goes on, so why do you think that America can afford to deter Saddam forever? You would think that 9/11 would've woken people up to the fact that our policies in the region need to be changed...

hi ,

well its cheaper to station your troops in a region then wait and react , .....

its called proreaction , ....

the containment of iraq and other rogue states is needed , why , simple , try a couple scuds on your head , we know what it means , do the american people want to get them on the heads , no , thats why you station troops next to the madman who has some special ideas about the world , .....

have a nice day

	03-02-2003 13:03									#30
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quote: well its cheaper to station your troops in a region then wait and react

Why not just take the bastard out now and eliminate the troubles associated with containing him?