12-02-2003 21:05									#1
	Intelligence War!! Support Apolyton, buy Civilization 2

Considering all this fuss that Britain and the US are making over 'suspected' Terror attacks and so on, wouldn't it make sense for Al Qaeda and all them lot to just stream out loads of conversations and transcripts etc hinting towards major attacks, let all these countries get all up-in-arms, and then do nothing?

This would cause quite a decent amount of disruption and cost, and have the extra effect of the 'cry wolf' syndrome - no one will know when its a serious threat or not.

	12-02-2003 21:08									#2
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Five minutes to thread closure. Engaging silent countdown.

	12-02-2003 21:09									#3
	Tired of ads?

That's not been their current modus operandi ?

	12-02-2003 21:12									#4
	Support Apolyton, buy Civilization 2

quote: Originally posted by Buck Birdseed Five minutes to thread closure. Engaging silent countdown.

What for?

quote: That's not been their current modus operandi ?

It seems it has, but I am just opeing a discussion as it seemed interesting.

	12-02-2003 21:27									#5
	Put an end to popups!

quote: Originally posted by The Andy-Man What for?

Do you have Ming´s posts on your ignore list?

	12-02-2003 21:32									#6
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This is not about the War in Iraq, however.

	12-02-2003 22:01									#7
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quote: Originally posted by BeBro Do you have Ming´s posts on your ignore list?

no but it seems a good idea

quote: This is not about the War in Iraq, however.

exactly.

	12-02-2003 22:31									#8
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quote: Originally posted by The Andy-Man no but it seems a good idea

	12-02-2003 22:51									#9
	Re: Intelligence War!! Got spare money?

quote: Originally posted by The Andy-Man Considering all this fuss that Britain and the US are making over 'suspected' Terror attacks and so on, wouldn't it make sense for Al Qaeda and all them lot to just stream out loads of conversations and transcripts etc hinting towards major attacks, let all these countries get all up-in-arms, and then do nothing? This would cause quite a decent amount of disruption and cost, and have the extra effect of the 'cry wolf' syndrome - no one will know when its a serious threat or not.

They could do as you say. The only problem is that they put themselves in jeopardy to do so. Obviously, not all captured conversations are given the same weight. Messages from peons have less value than those from Bin Ladens lieutenants. In any case, we glean details they didnt mean to give away. Playing such games by senior Al Queda dogs would increase our chances of locating them and now that the American agencies are no longer hog-tied we can dispose of them.

	12-02-2003 23:26									#10
	Re: Re: Intelligence War!! Full PM-box? Change here!

quote: Originally posted by SpencerH They could do as you say. The only problem is that they put themselves in jeopardy to do so. Obviously, not all captured conversations are given the same weight. Messages from peons have less value than those from Bin Ladens lieutenants. In any case, we glean details they didnt mean to give away. Playing such games by senior Al Queda dogs would increase our chances of locating them and now that the American agencies are no longer hog-tied we can dispose of them.

True, but if the infomation is meant to be misleading, then i am sure there are ways around some of the problems you have stated. I mean, if some peon pretends to be bin ladin, and has a phone conversation with someone saying something, then how will anyone know hes pretending, and how can they NOT do something anyway? BEcause if they ignore it as 'a hoax' and something happens, then you have the outburst against the CIA like what happened september 2001.

OTOH, if every day you lead out a load of troops hyping up an 'attack', and nothing happens, people will loose confidence in any war on terror - either way the terrorists win out.

	12-02-2003 23:37									#11
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This thread is to remain open or else!

There, I just closed it.

	13-02-2003 00:05									#12
	Re: Re: Re: Intelligence War!! Tired of ads?

quote: Originally posted by The Andy-Man True, but if the infomation is meant to be misleading, then i am sure there are ways around some of the problems you have stated. I mean, if some peon pretends to be bin ladin, and has a phone conversation with someone saying something, then how will anyone know hes pretending, and how can they NOT do something anyway? BEcause if they ignore it as 'a hoax' and something happens, then you have the outburst against the CIA like what happened september 2001. OTOH, if every day you lead out a load of troops hyping up an 'attack', and nothing happens, people will loose confidence in any war on terror - either way the terrorists win out.

Misinformation has always been a factor in the intelligence business. One phone conversation would mean very little unless they absolutely knew it was Bin Laden (for example). Theres never a smoking gun. Its a puzzle where you get snippets here and there but before anything is acted upon someone has to decide whether or not the threat is credible. That takes time and enough snippets. So to put it in perspective, threats are received all the time but it was only recently (for example) that enough data was judged credible enough to warrant putting out a 'red alert'.

The fact that nothing appeared to happen during the last 'red alert' doesnt mean there wasnt a real threat. It may mean that the threat was foiled. Unfortunately we may never know the truth of the matter and as you point out there is a psychological effect anyway. The reason I find a misinformation campaign unlikely is that we are actively hunting these dogs and their only hope is to stay hidden. If they were actively feeding us misinformation as part of a psychological action aginst us they would be committing suicide.

	13-02-2003 00:06									#13
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quote: Originally posted by Lancer This thread is to remain open or else! There, I just closed it.

Why should it be closed? It's not about Iraq.

	13-02-2003 00:36									#14
	Avatar Enlargement: We've got the solution

This thread may actually survive. BTW I suspect that if OBL and his cronies were constiently prophasizing spectacular attacks which didn't happen then they would begin to lose credibility.