15-02-2003 06:03									#1
	The Blair out thread (hopefully sanctioned by Ming) Increase Your PM Length

Well, Tony Blair seems to be well on the defensive after today's events at the UN. A large majority of his own people are against his policy on Iraq and tomorrow he faces what may well be the largest public demonstration in British history (1/2 million plus) in London, as well as an estimate of 25,000 demonstrators waiting to ambush him in Glasgow. If there were a public vote of no confidence in Blair's leadership today, it seems quite clear to me that he would lose badly. Another reason his leadership is so precarious is that the Labour party faces no credible challenge from either the Lib Dems or the Tories (who are really a joke party now), so that getting rid of him would be not be the kiss of death to Labour's chances in the next election.

So the question for all you Brits and non-Brits (I'm a Brit: I have dual citizenship of NZ and the UK) is, do you think there is a realistic prospect Blair being dumped by his own party, because he has become such an absolute liability as far as public opinion goes? After all, lots of other Labour MPs must be dying for the chance to be PM and this seems like their big chance to get ahead.

Secondly, who would you rather have?

[Note: the answer "Neil Kinnock" to question (2) is prohibited.]


For my part I think he should go, but I have no idea who to replace him with (perhaps this is an argument for keeping him).

	15-02-2003 06:04									#2
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quote: Secondly, who would you rather have?

The Tories.

	15-02-2003 06:07									#3
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quote: Originally posted by DinoDoc quote: Secondly, who would you rather have? The Tories.

Realistic answers only, please.

	15-02-2003 06:16									#4
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quote: Originally posted by Agathon Realistic answers only, please.

What would be the difference? Blair is only a more appealing version of the Iron Lady Brits seem to play act at hating.

	15-02-2003 06:17									#5
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An interesting question.

I don't think there would be anything inconsistent about withdrawing support from the US because of a failure to gain a UN resolution. After all, he has stated publicly that he would only go to war unilaterally in the event of a 'capricious' veto. He may look silly backing down now, but he's looked silly before and survived, and it is after all what most people want him to do.

Ignoring a UN resolution, when he has publicly stated he won't (except for the 'capricious veto' scenario), would however be a disaster, and would lose him the last shred of support he has amongst the British left, amongst those who hoped against hope there might be some sort of cunning plan involved in his otherwise mystifying support for Bush.

	15-02-2003 06:33									#6
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Withdrawing support from the US would be disastrous for Blair in his relationship with that country. I'd wager that a Britain that backed out with Blair would be in a worse position diplomatically than one that backed out without him, since his history would count against him in addition.

I think he's gone too far with the British people to save himself. When a leader is publicly ridiculed by the regular supporters of his own party (did you see him being called "the MP for Texas North" on the Beeb?) there is something seriously wrong. Anyway, how could he back out now without looking thoroughly venal?

	15-02-2003 06:38									#7
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Easy - just say that he thinks we should do it, but the UN disagrees so we can't. He'd restore at least some cachet by appearing to take international law seriously.

	15-02-2003 06:41									#8
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And I think it would even more of a diplomatic disaster for Bush - if he can't even keep the UK as an ally, then he truly will be seen as the worst diplomat since Genghis Khan. Which is a huge bargaining chip for Blair.

	15-02-2003 06:42									#9
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quote: Originally posted by Seneca ..., then he truly will be seen as the worst diplomat since Genghis Khan.

I got a real kick out of that.

Oh, and cheers to Ming for officially sanctioning this thread.

	15-02-2003 06:55									#10
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The Tories should come back, and Impose a ban on elections for another 100 hundred years to stop Labour coming back in my lifetime.

	15-02-2003 07:05									#11
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strange person

	15-02-2003 07:39									#12
	Remove this text

As regards Blair's domestic position, I'd say it's far from irredeemible - his personal ratings even now are some way off the depths of Thatcher's in 81/82, and the party ratings only look bad by comparison with the last ten years - by historical standards they're almost inconceivable at this stage in a second term.

Plus the sheer hatred that Thatcher engendered doesn't yet exist, although the whole war thing may not rule it out in coming months.

It's not beyond Blair's wit to engineer a nifty escape from this scenario.

	15-02-2003 08:04									#13
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Ya'll should bring back Thatcher...

	15-02-2003 08:08									#14
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Blair is a leader. Politicos who study the polls and act accordingly are mere followers in leadership positions. GB is blessed with a leader, but the people want a follower. That says more about the people than the leader.

Blair and Bush will prosecute this war, and history will judge them as it will, but they don't seem to care, because they BELIEVE in what they do.

Leadership!

	15-02-2003 08:14									#15
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Leadership comes from the UN - if they ignore its resolutions they are naughty rebels.

	15-02-2003 08:18									#16
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Blair isn't a leader. He's a politician who will sacrifice any belief to keep office.

He sees Iraq as a way of generating support in the same way as the Falklands conflict.

The last real leader we had was Thatcher.

Last edited by Nivek on 15-02-2003 at 08:24

	15-02-2003 08:30									#17
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"Leadership comes from the UN"

	15-02-2003 08:37									#18
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when are there going to be elections again in the UK? and i wonder if british troops would withdraw if an antiwar leader was elected

	15-02-2003 08:42									#19
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Given the plummeting in his ratings since the whole thing blew up, and the half-million-strong demo anticipated in London tomorrow, this is one f*cker of a perverse way of going about garnering support.

I don't know what his diplomatic game is - it may yet be that UN opposition makes an Iraq war impossible for the US, and that Blair can take some credit for bringing about such a scenario by guiding Bush down the UN route.

Or it maybe that he wants to remove Saddam for humanitarian reasons, what with him being an evil murderer and torturer and that - I'd be inclined to support him on that, but I haven't really heard much of that side of the argument from No 10.

The worst case scenario is that Blair is actually saying what he thinks, and really believes that a WMD attack from Iraq is imminent. In which case either he has access to deeply worrying intelligence, or more likely he's some sort of mentalist.

Blimey, I never thought I'd find myself hoping a politician was lying..

	15-02-2003 08:50									#20
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quote: Originally posted by MRT144 when are there going to be elections again in the UK? and i wonder if british troops would withdraw if an antiwar leader was elected

2005/6 (maximum term is five years, but governments can hold elections at any time before that - usually averages out at around 4 years)

But I can't imagine British troops mutinying and trying to stay in Iraq if they were ordered home...

Or do you mean would a professed anti-war leader find it politically difficult to order a withdrawal?

	15-02-2003 09:01									#21
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MRT, as an American who knows his history, and has endured a bar brawl in Germany with British troops, I can tell you that getting "British troops" to "withdraw" is no simple matter.

It would be a sad thing if the home front were to be the first to break the British line...

	15-02-2003 09:15									#22
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seneca, i meant the latter, an antiwar leader calling back the troops. how likely is that to happen? and what would the US do in that case?

	15-02-2003 09:28									#23
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Blair is not like other Lab. PM's-....Macmillan never let British troops get involved in Vietnam.......Changing times in British politics.

	15-02-2003 09:30									#24
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Assuming the war had finished, and the troops were involved in peace keeping and 'nation-building', I think it would be more budgetary considerations that would influence whether they came home or not.

If the war was still going on in 2005 or 2006 - well, all bets are off. I'd imagine in that scenario that an anti-war party (the Liberal Democrats would be the only ones even slightly poised to take power on that platform, and that not very likely) would have won the election on the strength of a commitment to end the war, and would thus have to act on their main election platform. But this is really fantasy politics now....

	15-02-2003 09:35									#25
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quote: Originally posted by Seneca Leadership comes from the UN - if they ignore its resolutions they are naughty rebels.

I would like to say something to you people who believe this. The UN does not provide leadership in the world. The UN is weak, as it should be. They do not represent my interests. Nor do they represent the interest of the British people or any other people on earth. The institution was never designed to lead the world. It is a place for problems to be solved and diplomacy to take place nothing more. Because we defy the 'authority' of the UN by not following along with it is total Bullshit. If you ever expect the people of the US to accept any kind of leadership from the UN you better pack a lunch, because you are in for a very long wait.

	15-02-2003 09:36									#26
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quote: Originally posted by DuncanK Because we defy the 'authority' of the UN by not following along with it is total Bullshit. If you ever expect the people of the US to accept any kind of leadership from the UN you better pack a lunch, because you are in for a very long wait.

And yet some seem to have a problem when European countries express the exact same attitude about the U.S.

	15-02-2003 09:53									#27
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Well, obviously the UN doesn't work too well if it's most powerful members start believing that force and coercion are more important than international co-operation and mutual respect...

	15-02-2003 12:51									#28
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quote: Originally posted by Nivek The last real leader we had was Thatcher.

Given that over the course of several "Historical Filth" articles I think I've established beyond reasonable doubt that "Leader" is just a euphemism for "Insane and comically perverted sub-human" I have no problem with that statement.

	15-02-2003 12:59									#29
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Can we get some consistency here? If Blair really is facing near-universal public opposition to war, but is also a political whore who would do anything to keep power, why hasn't he backed down yet?

	15-02-2003 13:00									#30
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quote: Originally posted by Boris Godunov And yet some seem to have a problem when European countries express the exact same attitude about the U.S.

Not me.