20-02-2003 08:04									#31
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quote: Originally posted by Kontiki Bush's success in the 2004 election hinges entirely on the outcome of the Iraq war (more importantly, the aftermath) and the state of the economy. All in all, too early to tell.

i agree

	20-02-2003 08:10									#32
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not a chance.

	20-02-2003 08:11									#33
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quote: Originally posted by St Leo and the WoD will be found. Make sure you file off the "Made in USA" and "Copyright (c) 2003" inscriptions before presenting them to the UN. Nader in 2004.

I think you mean "Made in Germany"

	20-02-2003 08:18									#34
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I think you mean "Made in Germany"

I think I mean "Made in USA in 2003 and covertly sneaked into the hitherto WMD-free Iraq after the coast is clear".

	20-02-2003 08:23									#35
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I think Hillary could beat Bush. She is one of the few Democrats out there with "gravitas." The other I know of is Joe Biden. He has said that he is thinking about running.

Lieberman also appears to have his act together. However, he doesn't have the charm of Biden or the pure intelligence of Clinton.

	20-02-2003 10:06									#36
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Kerry-Edwards will defeat Bush-? (Cheney's not running again).

	20-02-2003 10:24									#37
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quote: Originally posted by St Leo I think you mean "Made in Germany" I think I mean "Made in USA in 2003 and covertly sneaked into the hitherto WMD-free Iraq after the coast is clear".

hmmm... It almost seems like you actually believe that he doesn't have WoMD.

	20-02-2003 10:36									#38
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quote: Originally posted by chegitz guevara The war will have no impact on the elections next year (though a messy occupation may well hurt him). It didn't help his old man. People vote with their wallets and their stomachs. Unless the economy rebounds spectacularly or the Dem's choose a loser, Bush is just another one-term-wonder like his old man.

Not nessecarily. That was before 9/11 that his old man could not be saved by a sucsessful war. In GHWB's time, the Soviet Empire was collapsing and it was time Americans could feel more secure, so national security wouldn't be as big of an issue. Now is a time when we are feeling less secure then ever. If say, the economy gets hit hard but we are victorious in Iraq, GWB could make the argument to the American people that the economy is bad because of Gulf War II, but was nessecary to protect Americans. In the post 9/11 world, people might be more willing to trade economics for security. Moreover, what you guys aren't counting on is the possibility of the US using Iraq is a jumping off point to attack more countries that support terrorism, such as Iran. We also might take action against some countries with suspected Al-Qaeda ties such as Somalia or Liberia. By November 2004 Iraq may be over and we may be in the midst of a new anti-terrorism campaign.

	20-02-2003 11:00									#39
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Bush won't get Florida this time around though, since they were forced to reinstate all the people the illegally took off the roles last time.

	20-02-2003 11:02									#40
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quote: Originally posted by chegitz guevara Bush won't get Florida this time around though,

You mean that the Dems will actually request a statewide recount this time?

	20-02-2003 11:05									#41
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They won't need one. Without the vote fraud, the margine of victory should be enough to remove any doubt as to the intent of Florida's voters.

	20-02-2003 11:18									#42
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quote: Originally posted by chegitz guevara Bush won't get Florida this time around though, since they were forced to reinstate all the people the illegally took off the roles last time.

You don't need to win Florida to carry the country. Bush might win where he didn't last year in Pennsylvania, Michigian, Iowa, New Mexico, etc. And given Jeb's huge victory in 2002, I wouldn't rule out GWB carrying Florida again. Maybe this time in Pennsylvania the dead won't turn out as highly as they have done in the past.

	20-02-2003 11:22									#43
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Jeb ran against a shlub, McBride, whose victory was assured when Black people couldn't vote for Reno in the primary (because of the purged voters). Not that Reno would have won either, but she woulda come a lot closer.

	20-02-2003 12:29									#44
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Shrub's re-election is dependent entirely upon whether or not the Dems suddenly get a spine.

	20-02-2003 12:32									#45
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Wesley Clark might be the Dems best hope if he decides to throw his hat in the ring.

	20-02-2003 13:01									#46
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I've read about a possible Kerry/Clark ticket, which I think would be the Demmycrats' best hope, by far... And by that, I mean it would just make it interesting.

I think Bush has it pretty much in the bag. But I'm often wrong. And I hope I am in this instance, for sure.

	20-02-2003 13:10									#47
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Bush won't live out his term, the Republicans will win again though, unfortunatly.

	20-02-2003 13:10									#48
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"Jeb ran against a shlub, McBride, whose victory was assured when Black people couldn't vote for Reno in the primary (because of the purged voters). Not that Reno would have won either, but she woulda come a lot closer."

1. Who is to say the Democrats won't run another Shrub.

2. Bush currently had an approval rating in the 60's, I doubt Florida is so liberal that he would be below 50 there.

	20-02-2003 13:12									#49
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I hope that the Americans are similar to the rest of the people on this planet: I hope they learn from their mistakes.

	20-02-2003 14:36									#50
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Vote Jed Bartlet!

	20-02-2003 15:34									#51
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my prediction:
Bush is re-elected by a considerable margin.
A swift victory in Iraq (which I am fairly confident will be the case), will have the biggest impact.
The state of economy will also play a big role (as stated by others). Some doubt that the economy is currently showing signs of a rebound... I think the economy will react very favorably to a successful Iraq campaign. Historically, while costing alot to immediately finance the war, the eceonomy's base has actually bolstered in response.
The only thing I beleive could turn the economy back down again, is another major terrorist attack. And if that were to occur, Bush would surely be re-elected (he just completed the successful campaign against Iraq afterall...).
my .02

	20-02-2003 15:36									#52
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[aaglo]"I hope that the Americans are similar to the rest of the people on this planet: I hope they learn from their mistakes."

I truely hope this is sarcasm... I think we *have* learned from our mistakes... the Republicans control the House, Senate and Presidency!

	20-02-2003 16:05									#53
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If there is another major terrorist attack (God forbid), and it seems likely someone will try if an attack on Iraq is perceived as humiliating the Islamic world, will the US voters conclude Bush has failed on national security and kick him out?

	20-02-2003 17:16									#54
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Big if there Cerberus.

	20-02-2003 17:23									#55
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Hilary Clinton as president would ensure that teh right wing in the US would never agin gain power as they would all die from strokes, heart attacks and general ruptures as they ranted about her evilness