20-02-2003 04:31									#1
	Iraq crisis: Historical precedents (worth a read) Support Apolyton, buy Galactic Civilizations: Deluxe Edition

For those who think that being informed is worthwhile, here's a good series of opinion pieces from the Guardian.

All who wish to draw historical comparisons, especially those who rave on about "appeasement" please read this.

http://www.guardian.co.uk/Iraq/Stor...,898414,00.html

	20-02-2003 04:44									#2
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Already read it. Wasn't too impressed. If you examine 1936 instead of 1939, the similarities between Iraq and Germany are much more evident...

	20-02-2003 05:12									#3
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good reading. But I feel their opinions are biased on whether they support the war or not. I do not believe they can objectively look at history and the present situation with no bias.

Simon Chama has it pretty close though. This doesn't resemble either 1939 or 1956. Terrorism makes this a unique situation.

	20-02-2003 05:14									#4
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quote: Originally posted by Drake Tungsten Already read it. Wasn't too impressed. If you examine 1936 instead of 1939, the similarities between Iraq and Germany are much more evident...

When were weapons inspectors an option in 1936?

	20-02-2003 05:42									#5
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quote: Originally posted by Drake Tungsten Already read it. Wasn't too impressed. If you examine 1936 instead of 1939, the similarities between Iraq and Germany are much more evident...

Yes, one was a highly industrialized country with lots of financial capital. The other is a poverty stricken nation which only produces crude.

One country was a leader in science. The other is a isn't. One country was historically one of the most powerful countries in the world. The other isn't.

The similarities are so striking.

	20-02-2003 05:46									#6
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quote: Originally posted by Drake Tungsten Already read it. Wasn't too impressed. If you examine 1936 instead of 1939, the similarities between Iraq and Germany are much more evident...

So do the Germany-USA comparisons.

	20-02-2003 05:59									#7
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One of the things that is not often emphasised is the sympathy of European elites to Hitler in the 30s due to his anticommunist position. There is a nice novel which has this as the background, "The Remains of the Day", by Ishiguro.

	20-02-2003 05:59									#8
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quote: Originally posted by Dissident good reading. But I feel their opinions are biased on whether they support the war or not. I do not believe they can objectively look at history and the present situation with no bias. Simon Chama has it pretty close though. This doesn't resemble either 1939 or 1956. Terrorism makes this a unique situation.

Which facts do you dispute?

	20-02-2003 06:03									#9
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All of the direct historical comparisons read to me as rather simplistic, vague and easily manipulated. I'm sure we could compare the situation to any historical occurence if we wanted, to the limits of absurdity. Rather like making Nostradamus quatrains say what we want them to say.

I'd say the historical comparisons are inaccurate all-round, and this indeed a new and unique situation.

	20-02-2003 06:41									#10
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quote: Originally posted by Boris Godunov All of the direct historical comparisons read to me as rather simplistic, vague and easily manipulated. I'm sure we could compare the situation to any historical occurence if we wanted, to the limits of absurdity. Rather like making Nostradamus quatrains say what we want them to say. I'd say the historical comparisons are inaccurate all-round, and this indeed a new and unique situation.

Pretty much, which is why I object to the pro-war camp going on like this.

	20-02-2003 06:44									#11
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quote: All of the direct historical comparisons read to me as rather simplistic, vague and easily manipulated. I'm sure we could compare the situation to any historical occurence if we wanted, to the limits of absurdity. Rather like making Nostradamus quatrains say what we want them to say. I'd say the historical comparisons are inaccurate all-round, and this indeed a new and unique situation.

Yep... which I why I'll never say whether or not this is 'appeasment'. That's totally silly to compare.

	20-02-2003 07:12									#12
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Just because this isn't the same situation doesn't mean that there isn't a cause of war.

Some of the writers pointed out that there may be a reduction in WOMD and reduction in terrorism if this happens. They are unsure.

Many of them agree that the U.S. has no definite plans what to do once we are done. I fear to think what the aftermath of this will be.

but just because this isn't the same appeasement as what happened in the 30's is no reason to keep appeasing! What's the point of having U.N. resolution if they can be broken with no consequence?

	20-02-2003 08:38									#13
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quote: Originally posted by Dissident but just because this isn't the same appeasement as what happened in the 30's is no reason to keep appeasing! What's the point of having U.N. resolution if they can be broken with no consequence?

Iraq has been living with the consequences for 12 years. They were once on their way to being a first-world nation and had one of the largest militaries in the world. Now, thanks to the sanctions and containment, they are dirt poor, have no military hardly to speak of, don't even control their own skies nor a good portion of their country, and couldn't pose a serious threat to, well, pretty much anyone.

	20-02-2003 08:47									#14
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The US State Department just ordered all US citizens to leave Iraq, by the way.

**** is about to hit the fan.

	20-02-2003 08:50									#15
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quote: Originally posted by chegitz guevara Yes, one was a highly industrialized country with lots of financial capital. The other is a poverty stricken nation which only produces crude. One country was a leader in science. The other is a isn't. One country was historically one of the most powerful countries in the world. The other isn't. The similarities are so striking.

But, Che, relative to his neighbors, Iraq with WoMD is the superpower of the region. Couple that with his past aggressive wars to solve border disputes (same as Hitler) he is guaranteed to cause havoc if we do nothing now and withdraw. In a short few years, we may be asked to go back to the region to confront an Iraqi regime bristling with nuclear and other WoMD.

Is that what you want?

The lesson of 1936-19 is that you have to stand firm and confront a growing menance. If you don't, the danger grows until putting it down become a f*ckin nightmare.

	20-02-2003 15:42									#16
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quote: The lesson of 1936-19 is that you have to stand firm and confront a growing menance. If you don't, the danger grows until putting it down become a f*ckin nightmare.

Exactly.

The lesson of 1936 is that you must stand firm when a country violates the terms that ended the last war. If France had moved in when Germany first started rearming and reoccupied the Rhineland, the war might have been prevented quickly and easily. They decided to let the threat develop even though they had a perfect right to stop it and the whole of Europe ended up paying for that mistake.

Are we going to just sit back and let Saddam rearm and piss all over the ceasefire he signed? Or are we going to ignore him and hope for the best? History can't predict what the future holds, but it does provide lessons as to what we should do...

	20-02-2003 16:14									#17
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quote: Originally posted by Drake Tungsten Are we going to just sit back and let Saddam rearm and piss all over the ceasefire he signed?

Why should Saddam feel compelled to honor a ceasefire that the United States violated first?

	20-02-2003 16:17									#18
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quote: Originally posted by Ted Striker The US State Department just ordered all US citizens to leave Iraq, by the way. **** is about to hit the fan.

we followed suit yesterday...

	20-02-2003 16:20									#19
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quote: Originally posted by Ned Iraq with WoMD is the superpower of the region. Couple that with his past aggressive wars to solve border disputes (same as Hitler) he is guaranteed to cause havoc if we do nothing now and withdraw. In a short few years, we may be asked to go back to the region to confront an Iraqi regime bristling with nuclear and other WoMD.

Iraq has fought two wars of aggression against its neighbours. The Iran-Iraq war was possible because Saddam had a serious conventional military capability. supplied by various western countries and the Soviet Union, and the Iranians didn't. That situation no longer applies. Kuwait on its own would have been a pushover for any reasonably capable military. Kuwait with US troops in place is a different matter.

If there is a historical precedent in this it is that Saddam will do what he believes he can get away with and whatever it takes to stay in power in his own country. As for WoMD's that particular genie is well out of the bottle, unless the US is prepared to go to war with half the world over the next decade.

	20-02-2003 16:31									#20
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quote: Why should Saddam feel compelled to honor a ceasefire that the United States violated first?

Are you really going to focus on this bullshit line of reasoning again, Boris? Defending Saddam Hussein does not become you...

	20-02-2003 17:06									#21
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quote: Are we going to just sit back and let Saddam rearm and piss all over the ceasefire he signed? Or are we going to ignore him and hope for the best?

Sorry, that's a false dilemma.

What was so wrong with containment? Did Saddam appear to be on the verge of attacking someone? I don't think he is stupid by any means. I have yet to see anything from the US gov't that indicates imminent aggression from Iraq.

	20-02-2003 17:15									#22
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quote: Originally posted by mindseye What was so wrong with containment?

Because it meant starving Iraq's citizens.

	20-02-2003 17:44									#23
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Those who use the word appeasement should find some new term, since that has been tarnished by its use with regard to Hitler.

Firstly, no one is "appeasing" Saddam anyway, if the UN (the sane UN) has its way all his WOMD's will be destroyed. That never happened to Hitler.

Secondly, Saddam will never, ever be in a position to invade one of his neighbours again. He knows that that would not be tolerated. Even if he gained nuclear weapons he would still be in no better position since nuclear weapons are basically defensive in nature - i.e. you can't use them for fear of retaliation, which would be massive if he used them. In short he is deterrable, whereas Hitler was not.

Thirdly, I'll bet you a sum of money that if the US had offered to normalise relations with Iraq again in the mid to late nineties, he would effectively be a US poodle in the region. But no, the US wished to have an enemy in the region to justify its own increased military presence. Or at least that is the only explanation which fits.

	20-02-2003 17:45									#24
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Saddam comparisons to Hitler are an insult to everyone who died at the hands of the Nazis and are an insult to the Americans who died fighting in WW2. These comparisons are a weak attempt for the hawks to justify their position.

	20-02-2003 17:46									#25
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quote: What was so wrong with containment?

It also breeds resentment of the United States. The sanctions and presence of U.S. troops in Saudi Arabia are two of the major beefs terrorists have against the US.

Not to mention that it hasn't disarmed Saddam after 12 years of trying...

	20-02-2003 17:51									#26
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quote: Originally posted by Drake Tungsten Not to mention that it hasn't disarmed Saddam after 12 years of trying...

No one said containment would ever disarm him.

	20-02-2003 18:02									#27
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quote: No one said containment would ever disarm him.

You're right. It's too late for me to be posting on serious issues...

Sorry, my bad. The other point still stands, however.

	20-02-2003 18:47									#28
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This morning's news is that three cargo ships in the Indian Ocean are suspected of carrying Iraq's lost WMDs.

If they are then why wasn't this brought to the attention of the Security Council? Clearly, they were being saved up as a "smoking gun." Looks like SH is not the only one in violation of 1441.

Well, board them or let them be scuttled, one way or another that will be the end of them.

	20-02-2003 19:51									#29
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if it was appeasement, then we would be giving saddam hussein bits of land from all over the middle east - You want a chunk of IRan? Sure take it. You want Kuwait? Sure take it.

The situation is more the USA saying: We Want Iraq.....

	20-02-2003 19:53									#30
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quote: Originally posted by Drake Tungsten It also breeds resentment of the United States. The sanctions and presence of U.S. troops in Saudi Arabia are two of the major beefs terrorists have against the US.

Having some troops in an 'allied' Middle Eastern country is far less provocative than invading and occupying a hostile Middle Eastern country.

Invading Iraq will do nothing for the issue of resentment unless there is full and widespread re-'edumication'.