21-02-2003 10:39									#1
	A problem with Road now, Pop later Suffering from ads?

I am refering of course to the poll going on right now regarding what to do with the Worker on turn 2.

The problem is this, there may be good reason to seek Pottery sooner rather than later and hense we would switch to Pottery from Bronze Working on Turn 2. What is the consequence of that?

Well, if we get a tech from the hut it would then be Ceremonial Burial as the tech gained from a hut is always the least expensive available that is not being researched. While that would not be a waste, it would definitely not be one of our two desired short term techs. I am assuming of course that BW is very desirable for us.

If, however, the following things are true, I believe it would be better to proceed to pop the hut on turn 2.

a. Everyone has founded a city IF it is true that we can only gain a settler only so long as no one is at zero cities. I suspect this is true, although I am waiting for confirmation.

b. We stay on BW until the hut is popped. If we do not get Pottery, we can then switch to Pottery if that is the best thing for us to do. If we delay the popping of the hut, we cannot do this without wasting too many commerce on BW.

As I see it, the popping of the hut is an issue that is time critical. More time critical than 2 turns of Worker action. There may be other opinions, and a better course of action. Discussions are intended to find that best course of action. What do you think?

	21-02-2003 12:25									#2
	Lose 30 kilos (of popups)

I say we wait for the road.

If we switch tech research to pottery and then pop the hut on the next turn and we get pottey from the hut, we wasted beakers on pottery. If we pop anything else, nothing is wasted at all.

If we wait, and then pop pottery from the hut, nothing is wasted at all.


If we wait, and then pop ceremonial burial from the hut, nothing is wasted at all. (though we didn't get pottery)


If we wait, and then pop a settler from the hut, we've wasted the production another city would've given us.


If we wait, and then pop gold from the hut, nothing is wasted at all.


If we wait, and then pop a deserted village from the hut, nothing is wasted at all.

This all assumes that we'd get from the hut the same item regardless of turn we popped it. I've found that in the game if no one else pops a hut from one turn to the next, the same item that would've popped out on one turn will still pop out on the second turn. But who knows how many huts the other civs have in front of them or in sight.

All the same, I think we should wait.

	21-02-2003 12:30									#3
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quote: Originally posted by bigfree1 I say we wait for the road. If we switch tech research to pottery and then pop the hut on the next turn and we get pottey from the hut, we wasted beakers on pottery. If we pop anything else, nothing is wasted at all.

That can't happen. You never discover the tech you are researching. You discover the cheapest tech you are not researching.

whoops sorry NYE ... I didn't mean to edit your post.

	21-02-2003 12:35									#4
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quote: Originally posted by bigfree1 If we switch tech research to pottery and then pop the hut on the next turn and we get pottey from the hut, we wasted beakers on pottery.

You can never get the tech you are researching when you pop a hut.
If the hut contains a 'free tech' when we pop it:
1) We will get Pottery if we are researching BW
2) We will get Ceremonial Burial if we are researching Pottery.

I don't think any beakers would be wasted either way, either BW or Pottery would be good techs for us to research first - for different reasons.

	21-02-2003 12:38									#5
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quote: Originally posted by notyoueither That can't happen. You never discover the tech you are researching. You discover the cheapest tech you are not researching.

I guess I'm a little off here; I thought that you had to research for at least one turn for this to be true, not just switching it on the same turn you pop the hut. Thanks for the correction.

	21-02-2003 12:42									#6
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quote: Originally posted by FrustratedPoet You can never get the tech you are researching when you pop a hut. If the hut contains a 'free tech' when we pop it: 1) We will get Pottery if we are researching BW 2) We will get Ceremonial Burial if we are researching Pottery.

FP, do you know the rule that applies when there is more than one "cheapest" tech available from the hut? Pottery and Ceremonial Burial are both cost=2, so I am not sure, which one of them we'd get, if we get lucky and pop the hut for a tech while researching Bronze Working. My test games indicated we could get any one of the cheapest techs not researched/known yet. I am not sure though and would appreciate any verified info on this.

#2 is correct, that's for sure.

	21-02-2003 13:02									#7
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quote: Originally posted by vondrack FP, do you know the rule that applies when there is more than one "cheapest" tech available from the hut? Pottery and Ceremonial Burial are both cost=2, so I am not sure, which one of them we'd get

IIRC you get the tech that is higher up the tech tree (i.e. nearer the top of the screen).

I'm not 100% about that, though ... maybe 75% sure.

	21-02-2003 13:09									#8
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quote: Originally posted by vondrack FP, do you know the rule that applies when there is more than one "cheapest" tech available from the hut? Pottery and Ceremonial Burial are both cost=2, so I am not sure, which one of them we'd get, if we get lucky and pop the hut for a tech while researching Bronze Working. My test games indicated we could get any one of the cheapest techs not researched/known yet. I am not sure though and would appreciate any verified info on this. #2 is correct, that's for sure.

The "cheapest tech" rule is an assumption and not proven. I have a savegame (one of my PBEMs), where I pop a hut and get Alphabet, while The Wheel was still available and I was not researching it.

	21-02-2003 13:10									#9
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quote: Originally posted by FrustratedPoet IIRC you get the tech that is higher up the tech tree (i.e. nearer the top of the screen). I'm not 100% about that, though ... maybe 75% sure.

Nope, I am sure it's not that. In the PtWDG demogame, Legoland popped Ceremonial Burial from a goody hut while researching Bronze Working, not having Pottery yet, so this certainly is not true.

	21-02-2003 13:34									#10
	Put an end to popups!

quote: Originally posted by Sir Ralph The "cheapest tech" rule is an assumption and not proven. I have a savegame (one of my PBEMs), where I pop a hut and get Alphabet, while The Wheel was still available and I was not researching it.

This is interesting. All of the saves I was able to test conformed to the cheapest tech first rule. But I admit we have no verified info on this. But then again, we shall be able to research BW and Pottery ourselves prior to actually needing them for any builds.

	21-02-2003 13:42									#11
	Help yourself to an AD-FREE life

I just ran a test pop 100 times.

Warrior: 16
Maps: 22
Gold: 19
Settler: 16
Deserted: 7
Tech: 20

The anomoly was tech. Ceremonial Burial 10 times, Pottery 9 times, and Warrior Code once. Research was set to BW. So, it is weighted towards the cheaper ones, but is not assured of which ones, and can be something other than cheapest.

I am not sure yet how this effects my opinion of whether to pop on turn 2 or 5. If we switch to Pottery and begin the Road, we lose all chance of gaining a highly desired tech. If we pop now we may sacrifice the Road for Ceremonial Burial. I will have to think about it.

	21-02-2003 13:48									#12
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quote: Originally posted by notyoueither The anomoly was tech. Ceremonial Burial 10 times, Pottery 9 times, and Warrior Code once. Research was set to BW. So, it is weighted towards the cheaper ones, but is not assured of which ones, and can be something other than cheapest.

This sounds pretty reasonable. There is most probably some kind of probability (quite heavily) inversely proportional to the tech cost involved. That would make sense.

	21-02-2003 18:36									#13
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quote: Originally posted by notyoueither That can't happen. You never discover the tech you are researching. You discover the cheapest tech you are not researching. whoops sorry NYE ... I didn't mean to edit your post.

Apparently it has been discovered that these private forums allow folk to edit other folk's posts.

Please abstain from doing so. This has been a bug in the system for a while now.

However, it does allow for Important posts to be updated by anyone (of authority)

	21-02-2003 20:49									#14
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On huts carrying over, if anybody has connected a resource it's definately false.

Every resource connected to the capital will use up a RNG at the beginining of that player's turn. (Checking to see if it's being relocated.)

And if anybody had combat between your turns, it will use up an RNG as well.

My own expriment in classic Civ III 1.29f resulted in no competly identical result between poping hut on turn A and turn A+1. Even when both times were barbs, the barbarbian tribe was named differently, indicating that were were on a different RNG. (Name of tribe is also based on an RNG)

	21-02-2003 21:12									#15
	Avatar Enlargement: We've got the solution

I don't have time to read the whole thread before I go in to work, but I think we're laboring on a misconception regarding the time lost popping the hut now. If we pop the hut and improve that tile while we're there, and then move back and chop the fur forest before roading, we lose NO worker time. Moving onto the hut tile costs a worker turn whether the game forest is roaded or not. Moving back to the game forest costs a turn, but we get that turn back if we road after chopping instead of before.

But if we do that, we do lose a fair chunk of gold because the road won't be there nearly as soon - probably as much gold as if we kept researching Bronze Working while having the worker road the tile before popping the hut. Given the relatively small chance of getting Pottery from the hut, we're probably still better off going ahead and roading and switching to Pottery now.

	21-02-2003 21:35									#16
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quote: Apparently it has been discovered that these private forums allow folk to edit other folk's posts. Please abstain from doing so. This has been a bug in the system for a while now.

Ooooohhh...
*goes edit happy. All those who announced their vote for togas now support thud*



Eh, whatever the Consuls decide I'll be happy with on this issue.

	22-02-2003 00:11									#17
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quote: Originally posted by notyoueither I just ran a test pop 100 times. Warrior: 16 Maps: 22 Gold: 19 Settler: 16 Deserted: 7 Tech: 20

Let's say that's a fair sample.

I want to point out that the probably is 64% that we will get something not worth our Worker-time. So, popping the Hut immediately is inefficient. The reason why popping the Hut after the road makes sense is that the Worker is planning to irrigate (edit: mine, duh) the tile under it anyways.

I also want to point out that, if we wanted to gamble on getting Pottery from a Hut in order to start on our Granary, we have a less than 10% chance of actually obtaining it this way. Those are not good odds to build an empire upon.


Dominae

	22-02-2003 00:24									#18
	Suffering from ads?

Domanie, I think the plan is to MINE the grassland + shield tile; not irrigate it.

Sometime after we leave Despotism it will be advantegous to irrigate those grassland + shield tiles; but for now they should be mined.

	22-02-2003 03:29									#19
	Increase the size of your Attachments

quote: Originally posted by Dominae Let's say that's a fair sample. I want to point out that the probably is 64% that we will get something not worth our Worker-time. So, popping the Hut immediately is inefficient. The reason why popping the Hut after the road makes sense is that the Worker is planning to irrigate (edit: mine, duh) the tile under it anyways. I also want to point out that, if we wanted to gamble on getting Pottery from a Hut in order to start on our Granary, we have a less than 10% chance of actually obtaining it this way. Those are not good odds to build an empire upon. Dominae

Good points, I concur.