22-02-2003 02:48									#31
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When and how the German woin would have been crucial. A quick German victory in 1914 would have probalby lead to a vindictive settlement, and just set up a new war, if not the war we got. A quick vicotry would have also meant no Revolution in russia either.

A victory by mid 1916 would still have meant a very harsh german emposed settlement, and a new war down the line, and still no Revoltion in Russia.

Victory in early 1918 ditto above, with a revolution in Russia. How the Kaiser's government would ahve handled that, I can't say, though the continued unity of the Ottoman and Habsburg empires would have been very questionalbe at this late point.

The only thing a German victory makes clear, is a highly unlikelyness of the Nazi's coming to power.

	22-02-2003 03:02									#32
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Whole books have been written on this subject but the only time war could have been averted after Ferdinand & his wife were killed was when the Serbian government offered a compromise which the Austro-Hungarians shot down. They did this because the Germans promised the "total support" but it was still the Austrians who pulled the trigger.

BTW here is a picture of Arch Duke Ferdinand moments before he was murdered.

Attachment: archduke ferdinand moments before death.jpg
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	22-02-2003 03:21									#33
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The technology in 1914 clearly favored the defender and it would remain that way until modern motorized armor (not the unreliable wrecks slapped togeather in WW1), mechnized infantry, and airborne assaults were invented.

Think about the situation with military technology in 1914 there were machine guns, antipersonnel mines, barbed wire, an officer corp trained in defensive doctrines and "digging in", poor roads, and non-uniform gauge railroads. All of these things favor the defender over the attacker.

	22-02-2003 03:25									#34
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Going over the top.

Attachment: over the top ww1.jpg
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	22-02-2003 03:28									#35
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The officer corps were trained in offensive war actually. Look at the early battles of the war and you'll see tremendous slaughter on all sides. It was the soldiers who took the initiative to dig in and defend.

	22-02-2003 03:36									#36
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John Mosier recently published an interesting book called "Myth of the Great War" - anyone else read it?

	22-02-2003 03:37									#37
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FINL... oh.. this isn't one of those polls.

quote: as is supports terrorism with its penal court in Hague

Tee hee hee...

...penal...

	22-02-2003 03:44									#38
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The beginning strategy was to try to get your army up and moving before the enemy could mobilize it's reserves and get its own army in combat shape. Thus France wanted to rush head long into Alces-Lorraine, Germany rush through Belgium and knock out France before British and Russian forces could be brought bare, AH wanted to divid it's forces and attack both Serbia and Russia, while the British long service Army wasn't really large enough to influence things in a major way. The Italians had such a long coastline that there was no way they'd side against the Anglo-French navy and the only reason the British even honored the informal defensive agreement with France was because of Germany's invasion of Belgium.

The point is everyone had big planes but no one had the equipement or manpower to make them happen. All the offenses ended up being blunders except Germany's thrust into France and that one didn't even achieve it's opporational goals.

	22-02-2003 03:59									#39
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quote: Originally posted by GePap The problem with the German advance was not one of supplies. Once German forces crossed the front, it is highly unlikely their rolling stock could use French or Belgian Lines

The problem with the German advance wasn't supplies because the most supply-crucial part of it never happened. 20th century armies couldn't "live off the land" any more...

And rail transport could never have crossed the frontier, but it was crucial for internal movements...which is half the battle.

	22-02-2003 04:04									#40
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quote: The point is everyone had big planes but no one had the equipement or manpower to make them happen. All the offenses ended up being blunders except Germany's thrust into France and that one didn't even achieve it's opporational goals.

Exactly. The character of war could hardly help but be defensive. With quick-firing accurate rifles+machine guns and the mass of troops made available by the large standing armies+rapidly deployed volunteer forces it was possible to defend every single meter of ground on a scale like the Western Front took on.

No more practically autonomous 40 000 strong armies marching unhindered across a country like France after winning one or two battles...

	22-02-2003 04:10									#41
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quote: Whole books have been written on this subject but the only time war could have been averted after Ferdinand & his wife were killed was when the Serbian government offered a compromise which the Austro-Hungarians shot down. They did this because the Germans promised the "total support" but it was still the Austrians who pulled the trigger.

Incorrect. The Austrian government gave the Serbians a demand, which they were about to accept before the Tsar in Moscow told them that Russia would support the Serbians no matter what.

After that the powers of Europe came up with the Halt in Belgrade Plan, where Austria would have taken Belgrade and used it as a bargaining chip.

I think a 'NONE' option would be the best, but I voted Russia.

	22-02-2003 04:14									#42
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Frogger:

All reports from the front by German troops indicates not that they were running low on either food or bullets, but simply were dead tired from almost a month of continual marhcing and fighting. Also, German deployments went on without a hitch. Had the Germans planned for an entire army more, they had the ability to provide the necessary rail stock. And and extra army would have made a huge difference to the German effort, if one assumes that the German plan was plausible, given the time.

The fact is that the Germans did come close in 1914. The first army, a force of well over 100,000 men won several battles and still made it within 50 miles or so of Paris from the German, Belgian broder.

	22-02-2003 04:23									#43
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I greatly underestimated the size of the German force in the first army: some numbers

Rigth hook
1st army: Von Kluck 320,000 men
2nd army: Von Bulow, 260,000 men
3rd army: Von Hausen, 180,000
4th army: Duke Albrecht, 200,000

In Alsace
5th army: Crown Prince Wilhem, 220,000
6th Army: Crown Prince Ruppercht, 220,000
7th Army: Von Heeringen, 125,000

Compare this to the East, in August 1914:

8th army, first under Prittwitz, then Luddendorf and Hindunberg: 200,000 men.

Ad during the month of August, the German were able to divert 2 entire corp from the West to reinforce the East

	22-02-2003 04:28									#44
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From my understanding, they were all war mongers.

Serbia fire the first shot.

This ignited the fuse. Events then unfolded the way they did because none of the powers truly wanted to avoid war.

	22-02-2003 04:30									#45
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quote: Ad during the month of August, the German were able to divert 2 entire corp from the West to reinforce the East

This is because von Moltke (the younger) did not believe in the plan and thus doomed it by weakening the hammer.

	22-02-2003 04:33									#46
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von Molkte was not willing to bear the political cost of Russian troops holding german territory for long.

Besides, Prittwitz did retreat to the Visutla while Samsonov and Rennenkampf moved their armies in, which did give Molkte some cause to fret.

	22-02-2003 04:47									#47
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quote: Originally posted by GePap I greatly underestimated the size of the German force in the first army: some numbers Rigth hook 1st army: Von Kluck 320,000 men 2nd army: Von Bulow, 260,000 men 3rd army: Von Hausen, 180,000 4th army: Duke Albrecht, 200,000 In Alsace 5th army: Crown Prince Wilhem, 220,000 6th Army: Crown Prince Ruppercht, 220,000 7th Army: Von Heeringen, 125,000 Compare this to the East, in August 1914: 8th army, first under Prittwitz, then Luddendorf and Hindunberg: 200,000 men. Ad during the month of August, the German were able to divert 2 entire corp from the West to reinforce the East

The reason the erman's had so many forces in the west is because their battle plan called for a quick invasion of France to knock the frogs out of the war before the Russians could fully mobilize their forces. Thus it was theorized the Germans could defeat the French then transfer their forces east to deal with the Russians.

	22-02-2003 04:49									#48
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Too bad it happened the other way 'round...

	22-02-2003 04:51									#49
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I think it can't really be done to make a certain country responsible for the World War.
I'd blame Austria though for the war against Serbia though. The demands could not be met by any state who wishes to keep some of its sovereignity. They would have handed their state over to Austria by accepting the ultimatum. (Somehow, this reminds me of modern situation )
But without all those alliance systems, it would have never become a World War, just an Austro-Serbian war, maybe with Russia involved, because it has always been a staunch ally of Serbia and they were pissed at Austria especially (rivalry in the Balcans). But Austria-Hungary didn't try to mess with the rest of the world.
Maybe I'd also blame the Germans for having been very active in building up all those alliances with their imperialist policy. However, they were not the only ones who acted in an imperialist way, they just tried to catch up a bit.

Conclusio, no single country can be blamed for the world war.

	22-02-2003 04:53									#50
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Oerdin: There is a very strong opinon that by shifting so many forces form the right hook to Alsace to fend of the French (a correct guess given France's plan 17), that von Molkte weakened severely Schlieffens's plan. I think schlieffen wanted a 3 to 1 ration between the right hook and the center in alsace. And again, this was the result of the fear of enemy troops getting into Germany. Schliffen didn't seme to mind that.

I still think it was impossible to expect half a million German soldier to amrch and fight for an entire month and have them reach Paris so quickly, and on top of that the Russians, at least at Tannenberg, moved more quickly than expected.

	22-02-2003 05:34									#51
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GeGap: Thanks for making such wonderful contributions to this thread. One thing I believe that you underscore is the role that Germany played in Austria's decision to opt for war. Since the onset of the crisis, Germany had been strongly pressuring Austria to take an aggressive stance. In fact, Germany telegraphed the Austrians letting them know in no uncertain terms that they would give them a blank check, long before the Austrians officially asked for it. Germany was terrified of Austria, their only ally, looking impotent. If the Germans hadn't been so strongly pressuring the Austrians to act in a belligerent manner, there likely would have been no war. A lot of the government records and telegrams show that Germany wanted war, and the sooner the better. One of the telegrams the Germans sent Austria said that "War yesterday would have been better than today, but today will be better than tommorow". Why they wanted it now rather than in 1905, or even 1911, when there would have been little possibilty of Russia putting up the fight they did in 1914 is a tough question that no historian can completely answer.

	22-02-2003 05:38									#52
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What we should also ask, is who wanted what from World War I ?

German war aims (as I stated in another post) and as described by Professor Fritz Fischer in the book 'Griff nach der Weltmacht' (publ.1961) were actually more extreme than Hitler's, in that they included a drive to the west, as well as to the east. They would have entailed (had the Triple Alliance been successful), a Belgium wholly annexed by the German Empire, French iron ore fields sequestered by the Empire, Poland and Ukraine cleared of Slav inhabitants and resettled by Germans, and annexed by the German Empire.

http://www.ku.edu/~kansite/WWI-L/1999/12/msg00363.html

Russia of course, had had designs on the Ottoman Empire and coveted Istanbul, and an all year round warm water port. It also acted as the protector/guarantor of Balkan Orthodox Slav states and occasionally meddled in internal Austro-Hungarian politics by encouraging Hungarian separatists (although it had happily acquiesced in the carving up of Catholic Slav Poland).

After Bismarck's dismissal in 1890, Kaiser Wilhelm II renounced the Reinsurance Treaty with Russia- leading Russia to turn towards France, with whom she allied in 1894. It is worth bearing in mind, that due to Bismarck's statecraft, in 1887, Russia, Italy and Austria Hungary were all friendly towards the German Empire. By 1914, France, as the only previously openly hostile country, had been joined by Great Britain and Russia, and Germany's ally Austria had managed to provoke the hostility of Serbia, Rumania, Bulgaria, Russia and Italy.

The three central empires also contained large minorities- in the case of Germany, Danes, Poles and French, and in Austria's, Poles, Croats, Slovenes, Czechs, Serbs, Slovaks, Ukrainians, Italians and Rumanians.

Austria had also been instrumental in denying the new Serbian state its own seaport- creating Albania from previously Turkish territory in 1912 (effectively locking in Serbia on the Adriatic side), and controlling Spalato and Cattaro in Dalmatia- which Serbia looked covetously on.

There are times when personalities and individuals do have a hand in deciding history- the character of the German Kaiser, and the pride of the Danubian monarchy have to be taken into account. It would have been a grievous insult to Habsburg prestige, had the assassination by a Serb in Austrian held Bosnian Serb inhabited territory, of a member of the ruling house of Austria-Hungary, gone unpunished. Similarly, the Kaiser's grasp of foreign policy was not the steady hand of the 'dropped pilot' Bismarck, and he did not have Bismarck's luck. Also, wantonly ignoring Belgian neutrality (and Germany had been a guarantor of Belgian independence) and invading neutral Luxembourg does not present one's casus belli in the best light.

	22-02-2003 05:38									#53
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If the Germans really wanted war then they should have done it in 1905 when the Russians were still crying into their cherios over the shalaking the Japs gave them. They could have one out right in 1905.