22-02-2003 01:08									#1
	Monkspider's history corner: Which country was most responsible for World War I? Increase the size of your Attachments

I have been reading a lot of interesting books that suggest Germany was the main instigator of the great war. The reasoning is that members of the German staff such as Von Moltke felt that within a few years Russia will become an overwhelming juggernaut that would overrun the continent so it was better to fight them while they were still able to have a fair chance of success. "Now or Never" as Von Moltke famously put it. So in the July crisis of 1914 Germany largely shaped the diplomatic scene by taking Austria-Hungary on it's leash and in doing so, they created a war that would allow them to realize their aspirations of continental hegemony. They did so by urging Austria to act in a belligerent manner toward Serbia, and to frustrate mediation efforts on the part of France and Britain.
On the other hand, I have read an interesting theory that the entente powers, notably Britain, wanted to cast aside the weakest link in the European system, the Danubian monarchy, Austria, which led to the European order being destroyed in the process. I have also read some who have argued that Russia's own belief that it had a historic mission to serve as the Aegis of the balkans forced it to take a belligerent position in the July crisis, which led to a general European war.
Let us not forget the traditional belief that responsibilty lies with the Austrians. They were a decaying empire who felt that they had to assert themselves or risk becoming irrelevent. Therefore, they took the illogical step of risking their very destruction to punish Serbia.
So what does Apolyton think?

	22-02-2003 01:14									#2
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Germany... they were also scared of a united Slavic state, BTW

	22-02-2003 01:15									#3
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I don't think any one nation was any more responsible than the others, although Serbia certainly did what it could to avoid war.

	22-02-2003 01:17									#4
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Belgium? Why's Belgium there?

	22-02-2003 01:20									#5
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HEY! Copy cat!

http://apolyton.net/forums/showthre...&threadid=61718

	22-02-2003 01:22									#6
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Because Belgium is EVIL, as is supports terrorism with its penal court in Hague and spreads EVIL tennis players all over the world!

	22-02-2003 01:23									#7
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Wow that's remarkable, I never saw that thread in my life. What I find interesting is that we both had cute little themes attached to our posts. Mine is of course MS' history corner, and yours was "historical finger pointing: issue 1". Very interesting, it looks like Austria won last time.

	22-02-2003 01:26									#8
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As for Belgium, I wanted to give representation to those who believe that Belgium has always had Europe as it's marionettes.

	22-02-2003 01:26									#9
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Yeah...but you started yours with instant bias against Germany, whereas mine was balanced...

	22-02-2003 01:30									#10
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quote: Originally posted by Boris Godunov Yeah...but you started yours with instant bias against Germany, whereas mine was balanced...

True. And Germany is winning in the polls! That just goes to show you how weak-minded Apolyton is, always believing the first thing they read.

	22-02-2003 01:33									#11
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I think the Habsburg empire bears most responsibility for the whole mess: even if you claim the germans gave the Habsburgs a blanck check, it was still up to them to use it. Damn Conrad and the rest of those warmongers!

	22-02-2003 01:41									#12
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Serbia could have done more. It was antagonizing Austria-Hungary by supporting terrorist activity in its borders, and refused to abide by the ultimatum the Hapburgs gave it. Germany was in a bad position for a war at that point, and probably didn't want it.

Remember, these alliances were only temporary things. Germany would have had a better chance if it had waited for another powerful nation to join it against France. Russia could have been a potent ally.

	22-02-2003 01:47									#13
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Yeah, because the Hapsburgs were such wonderful, nice people... it's those evil Serbs' fault!

	22-02-2003 01:48									#14
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Russia and A-H were archrivals. Germany had to chose between the two at the end of the 19th century and it chose Austria.

	22-02-2003 01:51									#15
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quote: Remember, these alliances were only temporary things. Germany would have had a better chance if it had waited for another powerful nation to join it against France. Russia could have been a potent ally.

Against the French? Russia's army wasn't exactly at the pinnacle of mobility.

	22-02-2003 01:52									#16
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And I hate to think what it would have done to Germany's own deployment to load the Russian Army on German trains...

	22-02-2003 01:53									#17
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Even assuming the Russians could get to the German frontier (which they had quite a bit of difficulty doing)...

	22-02-2003 01:55									#18
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quote: Originally posted by Frogger And I hate to think what it would have done to Germany's own deployment to load the Russian Army on German trains...

True...but if Germany didn't have to commit troops to the Eastern Front, it probably could have come out on top in the West. The two-front wars always kill ya.

	22-02-2003 01:57									#19
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That's the thing...

They didn't need Russia as an ally, though. Just a nonbelligerant.

And Russia got its ass pretty decisively kicked early on. It wasn't the drain it was in WWII...

	22-02-2003 01:59									#20
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I suppose you could argue that the first miracle of the Marne wouldn't have happened had the Germans been able to more effectively concentrate their forces. But I'm not sure. The German advance was getting bogged down, and more soldiers might only have made it worse...

	22-02-2003 02:03									#21
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Russia and the Habsburgs were not natural enemies: while they competed in the Balkans, both were conservative monarchies with worries of nationalism and radicalism. It's Willy's fault that the Three Emperor's League Bismarck set up fell apart.

	22-02-2003 02:04									#22
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Either Germany or Great Britain were most at fault. Britain shouldn't have made an alliance with France, but Germany shouldn't have tried to compete with the British in overseas trade and naval build up. Of course, if the French wouldn't have gotten beat so bad in 1871 things would be a lot different. Then France would have been able to screw everything up more

	22-02-2003 02:05									#23
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quote: Either Germany or Great Britain were most at fault. Britain shouldn't have made an alliance with France, but Germany shouldn't have tried to compete with the British in overseas trade and naval build up. Of course, if the French wouldn't have gotten beat so bad in 1871 things would be a lot different. Then France would have been able to screw everything up more

?

Germany and the UK were the 2 of the big 5 least eager for war.

	22-02-2003 02:10									#24
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On the issue of the Schliffen Plan: more troops would have helped. Add an extra Crop, or even an extra army, and the First Army would not have been forced to make that left turn before Paris and expose its flank, and then they would not have to have retreated to cover thier flank, openign the Gap between them and the Second army into which the allies moved.

The main problem with the Schliffen Plan is the question of wether it was humanly possible to expect troops on foot to make that March while fighting all the way.

	22-02-2003 02:11									#25
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True, but in the process of trying to avoid war they made the eventual war worse. Not that they were at fault at causing the war. But they caused the war to be so bad.

	22-02-2003 02:13									#26
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I don't see why Russia would have sat out or allied with the Central Powers anyway, considering the spark of the war was Russia vs. Austria in a power play for the Balkans. I can't think of any scenario where Russia would have sat by and let Austria have its way there.

	22-02-2003 02:14									#27
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And where they're getting their supplies from is another question. Which is where my comment about more troops just hurting comes in.

There's only X amount of road and rail transport available. Put twice as many men on the ground and you're not only doubling your supply needs; you're also reducing the amount of transportation available for getting those supplies to the front...

And that cartwheel meant that the section of front farthest from home base was also moving the fastest...

	22-02-2003 02:23									#28
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quote: Originally posted by Boris Godunov I don't see why Russia would have sat out or allied with the Central Powers anyway, considering the spark of the war was Russia vs. Austria in a power play for the Balkans. I can't think of any scenario where Russia would have sat by and let Austria have its way there.

If you assume that Russia and AH were allied, then the situation in the Balkans as it developed from 1908 to 1914 might have been different, starting with the AH decision to annex Bosnia. Also, the Serbian government up to 1906 was very pro-Habsburg, and only after it was overthrown did a new anti-Habsburg government come in: if Russia and AH had still been allies, perhaps the Serbians would have been less inclined to be anti-Austrian.

	22-02-2003 02:27									#29
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quote: Originally posted by Frogger And where they're getting their supplies from is another question. Which is where my comment about more troops just hurting comes in. There's only X amount of road and rail transport available. Put twice as many men on the ground and you're not only doubling your supply needs; you're also reducing the amount of transportation available for getting those supplies to the front... And that cartwheel meant that the section of front farthest from home base was also moving the fastest...

The problem with the German advance was not one of supplies. Once German forces crossed the front, it is highly unlikely their rolling stock could use French or Belgian Lines. Also,no one is speaking of twice the troops_ the Germans had only one army in the east, and seven in the west, in August. At best, you increase the number of german forces by 25%.

Again, the main problem is that it is highly questionable if in the age before mass mechanized transport, and army ould move fast enough to satisfy the Grman Plans.

	22-02-2003 02:36									#30
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So... let's say Germany ended up winning the war. Good or bad thing for history? Would it have prevented WWII? Would the Germans have been more aggressive about combating the USSR in its early stages, perhaps even demolishing communism before it spread?