02-03-2003 01:31									#1
	Turks throw spanner in Bush's plan Remove this text

Well, the vote to authorise deployment of US troops in Turkey failed today. Admittedly, it failed on a technicality, but it failed nonetheless. Ah democracy, the thorn in every warmonger's side.

You gotta love the Turks - I mean they put on a real show in the World Cup and then they tell the US to get stuffed. Great.

	02-03-2003 01:33									#2
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w00t

hurray for the turks...........first time i said that....anyways....hurray...hurray...hurray....down with Bush and all of that stuff...

	02-03-2003 01:35									#3
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Hate to burst every peacenik's bubble, but the Turks are going to submit a "revised" agreement to their Parliament. That's politician-speak for adding pork somewhere, I bet. Anyway, Turkey will want a say in the future of Iraq, so something will get passed ...

Gatekeeper

	02-03-2003 01:36									#4
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Maybe it's just an attempt by Turkey to extort even more money from of the US

I guess the original pieces of silver weren't enough...

	02-03-2003 01:38									#5
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30 just don't cut it any more. Inflation and all...

	02-03-2003 01:38									#6
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quote: Originally posted by Gatekeeper Hate to burst every peacenik's bubble, but the Turks are going to submit a "revised" agreement to their Parliament. That's politician-speak for adding pork somewhere, I bet. Anyway, Turkey will want a say in the future of Iraq, so something will get passed ... Gatekeeper

Current reports say that this may well be in doubt. I think they'll have to do a lot more to get it passed and it might not be worth the domestic political cost.

We shall see.

	02-03-2003 01:39									#7
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heck they want northern Iraq to calm down the kurds....they arent mister nice guy either but right now I chose Turkey over Bush

	02-03-2003 01:39									#8
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quote: Originally posted by Ming Maybe it's just and attempt by Turkey to extort even more money from of the US I guess the original pieces of silver weren't enough...

Come on Ming. Bribery is at heart an immoral exercise on both sides, how can you accuse the Turks of not playing fair?

	02-03-2003 01:45									#9
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They're shooting themselves in the foot.
The US will help the kurds more, now, and will keep the money.

I wonder if there are ways to establish bases in Kurdistan itself without turkey. Like with airlifts, or something.

	02-03-2003 01:47									#10
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quote: wonder if there are ways to establish bases in Kurdistan itself without turkey. Like with airlifts, or something.

Airlifts generally involve flying over somebody else's territory, which might be a problem given the surrounding countries.

	02-03-2003 01:49									#11
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Not if you have aerial superiority over Iraq.

	02-03-2003 01:50									#12
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That supposes that the war has already started. Which is a little too late to be setting up bases. And the supply situation would be atrocious.

	02-03-2003 01:56									#13
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hmm. I guess you're right.

Say, are the Kurds completely in control in the north now?

I don't see a situation under which Saddam actually pushes north with his troops on the ground, since it will make the US job even easier coming to Baghdad. So, if they're incontrol all over there, the oil should remain pretty much unharmed, which is important for ... reconstructing iraq after the war, of course.

	02-03-2003 01:58									#14
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I'd suggest that the government of a politically unstable country that aids a war that 94% of its citizens vehemently oppose would have to invest fairly heavily in riot gear and tear gas.

	02-03-2003 02:01									#15
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They'll come alone in the end because if they don't the Kurds will likely declare an independent Kurdistan which will have territorial claims over half of Turkey.

The only way the Turks can stop the Kurds from declaring independence is to get lots of troops into Kurdistan before the Kurds can consolidate their position after Saddam goes to the great dictator resort in the sky.

	02-03-2003 02:03									#16
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quote: Originally posted by Oerdin They'll come alone in the end because if they don't the Kurds will likely declare an independent Kurdistan which will have territorial claims over half of Turkey. The only way the Turks can stop the Kurds from declaring independence is to get lots of troops into Kurdistan before the Kurds can consolidate their position after Saddam goes to the great dictator resort in the sky.

There is no way I can see the US standing for an independent Kurdistan either. So they might as well let Uncle Sam commit the gross human rights violations required to keep the Kurds down.

	02-03-2003 02:06									#17
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Interesting. You have to believe that the ruling party has sufficient control over its members to make good on vote promises...

	02-03-2003 02:07									#18
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I don't see why wouldn't the US have an independent Kurdistan.

They, unlike the turks have no reasons to dislike the Kurds. they'll be able to put some major itchpowder in the panties of both Syria and Iran, as well as punishing Turkey for not being good, when the US needs them the most.

	02-03-2003 02:13									#19
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quote: Originally posted by DanS Interesting. You have to believe that the ruling party has sufficient control over its members to make good on vote promises...

Well, they got more "yes" votes than "no" votes, but not a majority of votes cast--there were some abstentions. I suppose it dependes on what their parliamentary rules are.

quote: The vote was 264 in favor, 251 against, and 19 abstaining. With 534 ministers present, a "yes" vote of 268 was needed, according to the opposition.

I wonder how long it would take the U.S. troops to set up on the border after a vote? It's pretty rough contry there, not like Kuwait where they can drive off the boats and right up to the border in an hour.

	02-03-2003 02:14									#20
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The U.S. is opposed to an independent Kurdistan because the Turks are opposed to an independent Kurdistan. The Kurds already have a quasi-independent state but they'd like to take advantage of a military conflict to declare themselves completely independent of Baghdad and then they would have a state which could sponser revolts of Iranian, Syrian, & Turkish controled territories that have large Kurdish populations.

	02-03-2003 02:17									#21
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The admin. has stated that it will maintain the territorial integrity of Iraq. And independent Kurdish states is out of the question: if the Kurds decide to go for one, the US will not help when the Truks come to crush them.

I must say this was utterly unexpected. The fact that over 100 of the members of the rulig party either voted against or abstained is significant.

	02-03-2003 02:17									#22
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Well, look on the bright side. The Turks have a political system that votes against the interests of the country. So we're not alone in the club of Middle Eastern Democracies.

	02-03-2003 02:20									#23
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quote: The U.S. is opposed to an independent Kurdistan because the Turks are opposed to an independent Kurdistan

Well, since the Turks apparently cluster****ed the US' plan to invade from the north, it seems that this barrier is off. The other ones are actually very nice side effects for the US.

	02-03-2003 02:21									#24
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quote: I don't see why wouldn't the US have an independent Kurdistan. They, unlike the turks have no reasons to dislike the Kurds. they'll be able to put some major itchpowder in the panties of both Syria and Iran, as well as punishing Turkey for not being good, when the US needs them the most.

Because Iraq breaking apart is the last thing the US wants. Not because of the Kurds necessarily, but because of the likely divide this'll lead to between Sunni and Shi'a...

	02-03-2003 02:21									#25
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Let one bit break off and it becomes a much greater likelihood that the rest of the country will fragment too. Which is not in the US interests at all.

	02-03-2003 02:24									#26
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quote: The admin. has stated that it will maintain the territorial integrity of Iraq. And independent Kurdish states is out of the question: if the Kurds decide to go for one, the US will not help when the Truks come to crush them.

The Turks wouldn't be able to do this if they want to get EU membership. Unless the euros will slip it through since the turks would be actually attacking a US ally, just to spite them.

quote: Because Iraq breaking apart is the last thing the US wants. Not because of the Kurds necessarily, but because of the likely divide this'll lead to between Sunni and Shi'a...

how about a "Kurdistan" and an "Iraq", both around?

	02-03-2003 02:25									#27
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The US wants Iraq to remain a counterweight to Iran. If the Kurds get a state, not only does it weaken Iraq, but it makes the Shi'a an overwhelming majority in what is left, and in theory if not practice, make it a more friendly state to Iran: and the Saudis and other Gulf monarchs, all of whom have Shia minorities, also fear such an outcome. So, states that have reaons to quelsh an independent Kurdistan?

Iran, Turkey, Syria, SA, Kuwait, Baharian, Qatar.

States that want an independent Kurdistan?

Maybe Greece... probably not even.

Also Azazel, isn't Turkey Israel's only local friend?

	02-03-2003 02:25									#28
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Plus there's a general reluctance in the West to change national boundaries in any way for any reason, not matter how ridiculous they've become. Just look at the bizarre arrangements to keep Serbia and Montenegro "united".

	02-03-2003 02:26									#29
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quote: Originally posted by Frogger Let one bit break off and it becomes a much greater likelihood that the rest of the country will fragment too. Which is not in the US interests at all.

My sentiments exactly.

	02-03-2003 02:28									#30
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quote: how about a "Kurdistan" and an "Iraq", both around?

See the post immediately above yours.