10-03-2003 01:10									#1
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Iran will probably be Bushe's next target:

From TIME magazine:

quote: Iran's Nuclear Threat In another worrying development for the Bush administration, Iran moves closer to operation of a facility to enrich uranium  By MASSIMO CALABRESI Saturday, Mar. 08, 2003 With war in Iraq looming and North Korea defiantly pursuing its own nuclear program, the last thing President Bush needs is another nuclear crisis. But that is what he may soon face in Iran. On a visit last month to Tehran, International Atomic Energy Agency director Mohamed ElBaradei announced he had discovered that Iran was constructing a facility to enrich uranium — a key component of advanced nuclear weapons — near Natanz. But diplomatic sources tell TIME the plant is much further along than previously revealed. The sources say work on the plant is "extremely advanced" and involves "hundreds" of gas centrifuges ready to produce enriched uranium and "the parts for a thousand others ready to be assembled." Iran announced last week that it intends to activate a uranium conversion facility near Isfahan (under IAEA safeguards), a step that produces the uranium hexafluoride gas used in the enrichment process. Sources tell Time the IAEA has concluded that Iran actually introduced uranium hexafluoride gas into some centrifuges at an undisclosed location to test their ability to work. That would be a blatant violation of the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty, to which Iran is a signatory. The IAEA declined to comment. A senior State department official said he believed El Baradei was trying to resolve the issue behind the scenes before going public. But experts say the new discoveries are very serious and should be handled in public. "If Iran were found to have an operating centrifuge, it would be a direct violation [of the non-proliferation treaty] and is something that would need immediately to be referred to the United Nations Security Council for action," says Jon Wolfstahl of the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. Iran insists that its nuclear program is for peaceful purposes and told elBaradei that Tehran intends to bring all of its programs under IAEA safeguards. U.S. officials have said repeatedly they believe Iran is pursuing nuclear weapons. The new discoveries could destabilize a region already dangerously on edge in anticipation of war in Iraq. Israel — which destroyed an Iraqi nuclear plant in Osirak in a 1981 raid — is deeply alarmed by the developments. "It's a huge concern," says one Israeli official. "Iran is a regime that denies Israel's right to exist in any borders and is a principal sponsor of Hezbollah. If that regime were able to achieve a nuclear potential it would be extremely dangerous." Israel will not take the "Osirak option" off the table, the official says, but "would prefer that this issue be solved in other ways." The revelations come at a particularly bad time for Washington, which is locked in a battle to gain U.N. approval for an attack on Iraq and to build consensus among its allies for a multilateral approach to the crisis in North Korea. Critics of the Administration say Bush's hard public line against the so-called "Axis of Evil," combined with the threatened war with Iraq, have acted as a spur to both Iran and North Korea to accelerate their nuclear programs. "If those countries didn't have much incentive or motivation before, they certainly did after the Axis of Evil statement," says one western diplomat familiar with the Iranian and North Korean programs. The Administration counters that both programs have been underway for many years.

	10-03-2003 01:14									#2
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I'm pretty sure of this, sine they have reported al-qaeda activity in Iran. There's nothing surprising there, but they way they have reported it would indicate they're the next target, and they're just making people more comfortable with the idea, and thats why they have reported it.

	10-03-2003 01:14									#3
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I'm sure we will see more of these reports, but for example we will not see terrorists group activity reports in Saudi Arabia, where it sure is high, because it's not in the list.

	10-03-2003 01:17									#4
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quote: Iran will probably be Bushe's next target

Doubtful.

	10-03-2003 01:19									#5
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They will never be able to afford or justify a war against Iran.

	10-03-2003 01:22									#6
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Iran (with the RG's and fundies in charge) is a bigger threat by far than Iraq. The US just doesn't have the capacity to do anything about it.

	10-03-2003 01:23									#7
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I agree with MTG. I think they are bigger threat than Iraq.

	10-03-2003 01:24									#8
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I don't think that Iran is bush's next target. It will trouble the new govt. in Baghdad, post war.

unless, there is some way they'll make the arab shiites hate the persian shiites.

	10-03-2003 01:25									#9
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quote: Originally posted by DuncanK They will never be able to afford or justify a war against Iran.

They will - sooner or later. They will find a way.

	10-03-2003 01:26									#10
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DuncanK, Might be tough, but that's why they're reporting sudden changes in Iran, al-qaeda activity etc. They can start pressuring Irans leaders with this, and since they won't agree with the US fully, co-operating to take the terrorists out and their supporters, it could be enough. There are lots of fundamentalists in Iran (way more than in Iraq), who will not support US demands, what ever they might be. Their leaders might even go with the US, only it seem like they are co-operating, but they don't run the show. It's only matter of time.

	10-03-2003 01:32									#11
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There are also a lot of people in Iran who want a more liberal government - I think we will see a coup/revolution not a war

	10-03-2003 01:35									#12
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The only way that Bush can sell this war is because of its proximity to 9-11 and the people don't see how much it will cost yet. By the time the war on Iraq is over Americans will see 400b dollar federal deficits. They will also become aware that health care and social security cost will increase and revenues will fall as more baby boomers retire (that time is coming soon). We will never agree to finance another war and we probably couldn't afford it even if we wanted too.

	10-03-2003 01:37									#13
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quote: Originally posted by DuncanK They will never be able to justify a war against Iran.

That's not stoping them with Iraq.

	10-03-2003 01:38									#14
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Myrddin: most of these people are out of the country for more than 20 years now.

	10-03-2003 01:40									#15
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I agree here, I think there is as much reason to attack to Iran as there is to Iraq. And I support both actions.

	10-03-2003 01:44									#16
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Actually, There are plenty of compelling moral reasons not to attack Iran unlike Iraq: like the amount of casualties on both sides.

	10-03-2003 01:46									#17
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Well, like North korea, Iran could always, once the plant at Bushewer (spll) is completed, pull out of the NPT in three months time.

And I agree with MtG, even if Bush were to get a second term, Iran would not be atarget for US invasion, or even attack. As for what israel does, the Iraninas would probably not loose to much time even if Israel attacked these facilities, and it would be worse if they atatcked the nuclear power plant. All it would do, besides a few months lost, is strengthen the hard-liners in Tehran.

	10-03-2003 01:49									#18
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quote: Originally posted by Azazel Actually, There are plenty of compelling moral reasons not to attack Iran unlike Iraq: like the amount of casualties on both sides.

Yeah, who cares about the war in Iraq? it's just iraqis dying. It's not like they're americans or israelies or anything.

	10-03-2003 02:12									#19
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Why don't we let our Israeli friends take care of this one like they did to that reactor in the 1980s? A quick air strike will do the job.

Though, if I was Iran, I'd be rushing a nuke program out the door as soon as I could, what with huge American forces now in TWO surrounding countries. (Iraq and Afghanistan).

	10-03-2003 02:17									#20
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A quick aristrike probably won't do it, given that the Iranians have several nuclear facilities, including one being built by Russia. Such an atatck would not end an Iranian program, but would surely cause grave diplomatic damage to Israel and the US (us in particular).

	10-03-2003 02:21									#21
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When it comes to things like this, Israel is sort of like immune in terms of diplomatic damage. That's why I thought it was better for them to do it instead of us.

Of course you are right though that any action the Israelis do is seen as being supported by the US in terms of Arab eyes.

	10-03-2003 02:27									#22
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That's the thing Ted, we are the ones likely to catch hell, and we will be the ones in Iraq at the time. And as I said, since such an attack is extremely unlikely to mean the end of an Iranian program, it would be more counter-productive than not, since any attack on iran would be a green light for the hard-liners to get tough on reformist elements, thus lengthening the lifespan of a regime that is not all that secure internally.

	10-03-2003 02:36									#23
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It's still an option on the table, though, and it's going to be the Arabs that are going to be pissed. Since Bush already pissed them off with the Axis of Evil, the damage has already been done. Had he not included Iran in that speech, I would be inclined to agree with you, but he's already laid it out on the table and there is not much going back. (I would have preferred a quieter approach with the Iranians).

I would see an airstrike from Israel as being worth the diplomatic risk.

And about the hardliners, they are existing on life support. Even with the recent election, it's only a matter of time before those old geezers simply die off and the kids take over.

	10-03-2003 02:56									#24
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quote: Well, like North korea, Iran could always, once the plant at Bushewer (spll) is completed, pull out of the NPT in three months time.

I don't think they would do that. Deception is the best strategy. While intelligence agencies will certainly know Iran has nukes, there's no reason to announce it.

Then Iran could organize lots of liberal airheads marching with banners saying "Iran has no nukes".

quote: And I agree with MtG, even if Bush were to get a second term, Iran would not be atarget for US invasion, or even attack. As for what israel does, the Iraninas would probably not loose to much time even if Israel attacked these facilities, and it would be worse if they atatcked the nuclear power plant. All it would do, besides a few months lost, is strengthen the hard-liners in Tehran.

I never suggested an attack on Iran.

I said that Iran are likely to become a target of action, as compared to the inaction stance taken by US towards Iran for 20 years now.

Obviously this will be done covertly, as any overt action will cause more resistance than use.

	10-03-2003 03:27									#25
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quote: Originally posted by Pekka I agree with MTG. I think they are bigger threat than Iraq.

But by far the largest threat to US supremacy in the world is China - long term. As far as attacking the cities or nuking the largest threat is not the state but terrorists, or mad scientists and such

	10-03-2003 03:28									#26
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quote: Originally posted by Ted Striker Why don't we let our Israeli friends take care of this one like they did to that reactor in the 1980s? A quick air strike will do the job.

Won't Iran be more prepared for this than Iraq was?

	10-03-2003 04:02									#27
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Seeing the difference in how the Iraq and NK problems are handled I think the message is clear: get a nuke as fast as you can, because if you survive the process you will be respected.

Now, there´s anyone in the world who believes that Iran, sitting over all that oil, would build a nuclear plant to produce energy?

It will be very hard avoiding national states to put their hands on a technology that´s almost 60 years old though.