11-03-2003 10:25									#1
	Tony Blair to out-manuever the appeasers Support Apolyton buy from Amazon

http://www.guardian.co.uk/Iraq/Stor...,911726,00.html

quote: Britain sets new tests for Saddam Ewen MacAskill, Julian Borger in Washington and Gary Younge in New York Tuesday March 11, 2003 The Guardian The British government last night circulated a new compromise at the United Nations setting out a dozen disarmament tests that the Iraqi president, Saddam Hussein, would have to pass to avoid war. A security council source said the UK was opting for a list that was "simple, striking and snappy" to win over wavering voters on the security council for a resolution that would set down a deadline for the tests. The compromise, designed to break the deadlock gripping the UN security council and paralysing Washington's war plans, would see the deadline pushed back "by a few days" from the March 17 ultimatum proposed by London last week. The government claims it has the support of the US for the revised plan. Furthermore, according to the British arithmetic, Angola, Cameroon, and Mexico are in favour and Guinea, Pakistan and Chile are also coming round. Chile has proved to be one of the most awkward but it too is shifting towards the US-British position, according to British sources. Tony Blair phoned the Chilean president on Sunday to stress that the new resolution will take account of Chile's concerns. Diplomats from the "middle six" members confirmed they were holding discussions among themselves and were open to such a compromise. "There are some initiatives which are under way, and we are party to these initiatives," Angola's UN ambassador, Ismael Gaspar Martins, told reporters. "As it is, I think we can still do some more about that resolution. I think everybody accepts that, including the sponsors of the resolution." The list demands that Iraqi scientists be taken out of the country for interviews abroad where they will be free from intimidation, the destruction of banned weapons and the provision of documents explaining what had happened to the remainder. A British source said the US and Britain were "quietly confident" that the compromise will secure the votes of the six key undecided countries on the 15-member security council. The British ambassador to the United Nations, Sir Jeremy Greenstock, spent yesterday sounding out the undecided countries about their remaining concerns and then drew up the fresh set of proposals. If Sir Jeremy wins support for the new compromise, it could be put to a vote either tomorrow or Thursday. If and when Britain and the US put forward a resolution, they will have to contend with the growing danger that France will lead opposition and scupper the plan. President Jacques Chirac yesterday made his first explicit threat that he would wield the veto. "War can only lead to the development of terrorism," he said. "The war will break up the international coalition against terrorism." The victors of any war would be "those who want a clash of civilisations, cultures and religions". With relations between Britain and France becoming increasingly strained, the British government said yesterday that it expected France and probably Russia to use their vetos. Russia said yester day that it would veto the resolution in its present form. The stakes involved in the decision were dramatically raised yesterday by the UN secretary general, Kofi Annan, when he explicitly warned the Bush administration that it would be violating the UN charter if it went ahead with the invasion of Iraq without security council endorsement. The UN charter forbids military action against other member states unless the action is in self-defence or condoned by the security council. US and British officials are also furious with the chief UN inspector, Hans Blix, for failing to mention what they see as damning evidence discovered by his inspectors of an undeclared drone aircraft and cluster bombs designed to scatter chemical and biological agents. The weapons were instead listed in a written UN working document and a last-minute addendum handed to council members after his verbal report last Friday. British and US officials insisted Mr Blix attend a security council meeting last night to answer their questions. According to the working document, Unmovic, the monitoring team, found part of a bomblet designed for chemical and biological agents last month in the Al Noaman munitions factory. "Iraq stated that this was a leftover from the past declared chemical simulant test programme that was abandoned," the report notes, but it adds that the evidence suggests "Iraq's interest in cluster munitions, and the developments it did make, may have progressed well beyond what it had declared."

And this from a left wing news source. Anyway, I'm impressed, if true this is great news and we may well yet win over 9 votes. If these "simple, striking, and snappy" tests are failed, which Hussein probably will, it will become easier to take a pro-war position, and hopefully the British public will come around to supporting Tony.

I must say I am impressed with Blair's diplomacy here. First he was sucsessful and getting Bush to attempt the UN route- now if this amended resolution can pass and becomes the basis for the solution to the Iraq problem, it will be a great boon to British prestige and perhaps signal the highest point British influence has been at in awhile.

	11-03-2003 10:29									#2
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In other news, worldwide opposition has been successful in forcing a softening of the UK position with regards to Iraq.

	11-03-2003 10:44									#3
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And I seem to remember something about it was Colin Powel who had been urging Bush to go the UN route since the beginning...

	11-03-2003 10:45									#4
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I don't think this will work. France has shown no desire to respond to British and American compromises with a compromise of its own. They'll veto the second resolution no matter what it says and the US/UK will go to war anyway. The UN will become weaker than ever and we'll all have the French to thank for it...

	11-03-2003 11:12									#5
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quote: Originally posted by Drake Tungsten I don't think this will work. France has shown no desire to respond to British and American compromises with a compromise of its own. They'll veto the second resolution no matter what it says and the US/UK will go to war anyway. The UN will become weaker than ever and we'll all have the French to thank for it...

Right, but our position will look alot more reasonable if we can win 9 UNSC votes. If we follow the British procedure our move will look alot more justified in the eyes of the world and hopefully the British public as well.

	11-03-2003 11:13									#6
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I hope you're right, Shi. Blair could really use 9 UNSC votes...

	11-03-2003 11:34									#7
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quote: US and British officials are also furious with the chief UN inspector, Hans Blix, for failing to mention what they see as damning evidence discovered by his inspectors of an undeclared drone aircraft and cluster bombs designed to scatter chemical and biological agents. The weapons were instead listed in a written UN working document and a last-minute addendum handed to council members after his verbal report last Friday.

woah! i never heard about these cluster bombs...

anyway, this is good news. If we can get 9 votes, regaurdless of vetos, that is great news. The, 'tests' seem like a good compromise, and if France et al veto it, i think it would reflect poorly on them, especially by those who are on the fence about war.

Kman

	11-03-2003 15:16									#8
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This is making for a very interesting next couple of weeks.

Personally, having got pretty sick of seeing "Stop the War" posters around campus, am going as soon as poss to get a black T-shirt on which I'll get strikingly printed, "Start the War".

	11-03-2003 15:34									#9
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quote: Originally posted by Drake Tungsten I don't think this will work. France has shown no desire to respond to British and American compromises with a compromise of its own. They'll veto the second resolution no matter what it says and the US/UK will go to war anyway. The UN will become weaker than ever and we'll all have the French to thank for it...

The UN is already useless if the US is just going to ignore its decisions or treat it as a rubber stamp.

	11-03-2003 15:41									#10
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Make it a few weeks, and get France et co on board.

I'll be laughing my ass off if Saddam would actually disarm. Bush would be so royally pissed...

	11-03-2003 15:43									#11
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quote: Originally posted by HershOstropoler I'll be laughing my ass off if Saddam would actually disarm. Bush would be so royally pissed...

That's what Bush and Blair wanted all along.

Only those two realise that Hussein will not disarm unless he knows he is going to be attacked tomorrow.

By giving "more time", the French and appeasers are just delaying the inevitable - the military threat needs to be credible at some point. Why waste time and give him chance to build more weapons/pas them to rogue terrorists groups?

	11-03-2003 15:45									#12
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"That's what Bush and Blair wanted all along."

Blair yes, Bush no.

	11-03-2003 15:56									#13
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quote: The UN is already useless if the US is just going to ignore its decisions or treat it as a rubber stamp.

The UN is making itself irrelevant by ignoring its own decisions. The fact that the UNSC refuses to enforce its own past resolutions, including 1441, just shows how laughably useless and impotent a body it really is. America is going to ignore the UN in order to enforce the UN's resolutions. How's that for a paradox...

	11-03-2003 15:56									#14
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Do you think Bush will tell Blair that he doesn't need his troops, if it'll be political suicide for Blair?

I think Bush would more prefer a longer-lasting Blair than one who provides troops that Bush doesn't really need.

It would be nice to see the Special Friendship work the other way...

	11-03-2003 15:58									#15
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"America is going to ignore the UN in order to enforce the UN's resolutions."

Taht's not a paradox, that's a pretext.

	11-03-2003 16:09									#16
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quote: Tony Blair to out-manuever the appeasers

Does that mean Blair has stopped being an appeaser (the only thing there is to appease is American warmongering)?