17-03-2003 02:19									#1
	It's the balance of powers theory and nothing else Increase the size of your Attachments

What says the balance of powers theory: "if one country becomes too big will all other countries unite agaisnts that country"

This is more then just a theory, a lot of what happened in history can be explained by this theory, if one nation becomes too big will most other fear it could harm them or there interrests and that is exactly what causes the effect of the balance of powers. You can find in history tons of examples of this theory: the USSR becomes too big:most unite against it, napolion his empire becomes too big: most unite against it.

After the fall of the USSR was the balance of power lost, but because of the friendly multilateralistic policies of Bush senior and Clinton didn't the world really realized this. The combination of Bush senior and 9/11 changed this all.

We are now in the very beginning of the working of the balance of power. Everywhere on earth except in Israel and the US is anti-americanism on the raise.

At the same time as the relations with the US are becoming worser with the day are the other nations growing closely closer towards each other. The Arab world loves the France-German stance, Russia loves it, China quitely supports it, all have a united vision.

South Korea wants to improve the relations with the north at the same time when it's relations with the US are dropping.

The Arab world and europe there ideas about the Israelian conflict are growing closer with every passing day.

At the same time as the anti American sentiment in the Islamic world is raising, is also the solidary within the Islamic world raising, for many arabs is Saddam no longer a dangerours despot but instead a muslim brother.

Even the traditional allies like England and Turkey are facing a growing opposition towards US policies.

Off course can't we yet speak of truelly uniting againsts one country, but that is because we are still in the very beginning of the effect of the balance of powers. But with every new war, with every new US defense increase, with every new signal that indicates the power of the US, with every new unilateral move will we move closer and closer towards the effect of the balance of powers: quite everyone unites againsts the unbalancing big nation. This uniting doesn't have to be military there are also other ways this can happen.

Last edited by kolpo on 17-03-2003 at 03:21

	17-03-2003 02:27									#2
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If this is going to happen why does your signature say the future can't be predicted?

	17-03-2003 02:29									#3
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You seem to be implying that it should happen, and I can't figure out why it should happen.

	17-03-2003 02:30									#4
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Now Paul Hanson has one of the best signatures I've seen so far.

	17-03-2003 02:45									#5
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I CLAIM THIS THREAD IN THE NAME OF BLIX!

So, the poll is dead, my beautiful thread closed, but I have permittion to discuss the matter in another thred. I choose this one.

We'll do a poll another way.

The question is, is Blix a sucker?
Options:
Yes, he's a bad sucker!
No, he's NOT a sucker
Blix is a banana

I vote yes! The fella was born yesterday.

	17-03-2003 02:46									#6
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Kolpo: We're likely to have more allies this time around than last time around. We lost Syria, Germany, and France, but gained a lot of Central European countries.

Trying to create a counterweight to the US is a dumb idea, especially if it proves not to work.

	17-03-2003 02:50									#7
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quote: Originally posted by DanS Trying to create a counterweight to the US is a dumb idea, especially if it proves not to work.

Because the USA economy is the locomotive of the world economy. That's not bragging that's just the way it is.

	17-03-2003 02:53									#8
	I guess at this point I'm willing to share this thread. Support Apolyton, buy Alpha Centauri

Or maybe I'll claim another?!?

Won't someone vote in my poll?

	17-03-2003 02:56									#9
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kolpo, I think the French are trying to form an anti-us coalition, as you suggest. The problem is that the bulk of Europe remains solidly pro-US. The French power play may only cause a restructuring of NATO without them. This may make further progress toward a united EU end.

Clearly the Arab world is also split between pro-US and anti-US factions. I presume a US victory in Iraq may cause some reevalutation by fence sitters.

China, Russia. Old enemies that have never really become friends. Russian anti-Americanism will cost them big time as they need US support financially.

Africa? We are going to deal with these folks bilaterally in the future. Whether they cooperate with the US or not will largely determine the level of aid. I think they understand this. Anti-Americanism has a price.

Mexico will also suffer from its recent antics.

What is happening is that the world is in fact divided. I wish it were not so, but it is.

	17-03-2003 02:57									#10
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Blix either is stupid or he is intentionally trying to not disarm Saddam. I don't think he is stupid.

	17-03-2003 03:00									#11
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Parts of your argument is hard to follow but I woun't kling to that. However, the US will get "the world" against it if their interests run against the interests of "the world" and/or if the US acts in a unilateral way. There's nothing in the self interest of other nations to agree with the US as it is acting nowadays (unless it would mean survival, the ultimate rasion d'etat). If the US plays it one way the rest of the world will play along. If US acts unilaterly, the rest of the globe will go against it.

	17-03-2003 03:08									#12
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Ned, I wonder if Blix has got a Swiss bank account. Really...he almost never went where US intel told him to ge, and when they did go the Iraqis knew he was coming, as in Powell's evidence. When Saddam calls, Blix goes...he call the distruction of a few missiles, "real progress" even though it's an obvious stall.

Something is up with Blix.

	17-03-2003 03:08									#13
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There's nothing in the self interest of other nations to agree with the US as it is acting nowadays

4 out of the G-7 countries are explicitly supporting US action on Iraq. As long as that happens, there will be no counterweight.

	17-03-2003 03:09									#14
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quote: Originally posted by Kropotkin Parts of your argument is hard to follow but I woun't kling to that. However, the US will get "the world" against it if their interests run against the interests of "the world" and/or if the US acts in a unilateral way. There's nothing in the self interest of other nations to agree with the US as it is acting nowadays (unless it would mean survival, the ultimate rasion d'etat). If the US plays it one way the rest of the world will play along. If US acts unilaterly, the rest of the globe will go against it.

I think your first statement is correct - if the US acts against the interests of the rest of the world, they will united against America.

Since the US is acting selfless to promote the rule of law, human rights and democracy, I severely dought that the rest of the world will be against the US.

However, I disagree with the second part of your statement concerning "unilateralism." Acting "unilaterally" seems to be a codeword for not going through the UN. Given the standoff between France and the US, is this possible any longer?

	17-03-2003 03:11									#15
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"You seem to be implying that it should happen, and I can't figure out why it should happen."

It is not about what I think should happen it is about what I think will happen, I actually in fact hope it wouldn't happen. I just describe what i think will happen nowhere in my post do I give my opinion about it.

I was NOT saying that this is a good thing nor was I saying that it is a bad thing, I just said what I think will happen.

	17-03-2003 03:12									#16
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So? They probably believe that they will gain something from it. But that might be a futile hope as the US under Bush jr. has not shown much will to act with someones interests beside its own in mind.


So what does the US need Blix for? They can clearly fabricate their own evidence.

	17-03-2003 03:14									#17
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quote: Since the US is acting selfless to promote the rule of law, human rights and democracy, I severely dought that the rest of the world will be against the US.

A superpower never acts selflessly. At least not when it comes to something as big as this. You can't really believe that, can you?

	17-03-2003 03:17									#18
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"So what does the US need Blix for?"

Kropotkin, good question, exactly nothing. Blix came down middle of the road every time he went in front of the UN. In order to achieve the middle of the road he burried real evidence in the back of reports, insread of raising such issues as is his job. He did everything but his job...

	17-03-2003 03:19									#19
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So? They probably believe that they will gain something from it.

Were you talking to me?

I was merely pointing out that if your theory is correct, then a credible balance would be evident in the current situation. But it's clear that there is no credible balance.

	17-03-2003 03:21									#20
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It was a joke there Lancer, that rushed past your brain in 150 mph. Blix seems to have got a lot of bad press from the start, as soon as he got the job. I can't really say if it's possible to actually estimate the quality of his work as most evaluations to me says a lot more about the evaluaters prior opinion on the issue at hand. But that's just my two cents.

	17-03-2003 03:24									#21
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Yes I was talking to you. Well, No. My theory would be proven false if in fact nations always acted in a stict, rational way. However, this is hardly the case. Not that this in any way proves my hypothesis either though. Maybe they think they will gain from it. I think they will be screwed by Bush the next time they need him. That's my theory.

	17-03-2003 03:27									#22
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"I was merely pointing out that if your theory is correct, then a credible balance would be evident in the current situation. But it's clear that there is no credible balance."

No because humans aren't computer programs who react instandly, it can takes years or even decades before nations react. It is a slow process in which the relations with the big unbalancing nations slowely worsen. Directly after WWII wheren't the relations between the US and the USSR as bad as they where later, it took some time for the balance of powers to take effect.

Take for example Britain, I think that the labor rebels won't be able to stop UK participation in this war, but the next war the UK joins(againsts North Korea or Iran for example) will the rebelion raise even more, and the war after that even more, until it has become so big that the rebels win and break the alliance with the US. It doesn't happen instantly, it is a slow process.

	17-03-2003 19:39									#23
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quote: Originally posted by Kropotkin So what does the US need Blix for? They can clearly fabricate their own evidence.

It is simply unbelievable that there are people who buy Saddam's drivel.

	17-03-2003 19:43									#24
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quote: Originally posted by Kropotkin A superpower never acts selflessly. At least not when it comes to something as big as this. You can't really believe that, can you?

With Saddam, now, he is a threat to Israel, a threat to Kuwait, Saudi Arabia and to the whole Gulf region. He is a threat to the US and to the world because of this.

He is also a threat to hand bio weapons to a terrorist in order to attack the US. In fact, I think the anthrax attack just after 9/11 may be linked to Saddam.

No, our national interests are involved in disarming Saddam.

	17-03-2003 19:47									#25
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quote: Originally posted by Kropotkin It was a joke there Lancer, that rushed past your brain in 150 mph. Blix seems to have got a lot of bad press from the start, as soon as he got the job. I can't really say if it's possible to actually estimate the quality of his work as most evaluations to me says a lot more about the evaluaters prior opinion on the issue at hand. But that's just my two cents.

Kropotkin, I find it very interesting that Blix did not conduct one interview outside Iraq where the whole family was also outside Iraq.

He seemed to accept interviews with monitors or tape recorders present or in bugged International Hotels as an Iraqi "initiative."

Outrageous!

	17-03-2003 19:55									#26
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My theory would be proven false if in fact nations always acted in a stict, rational way.

No doubt. However, I would point out that nations do act in rational ways much of the time (or at least the successful ones do). Given this, a good number of countries would "fall in line" rather than contribute to the counterweight.

Overall, I'm skeptical that this will be a bipolar world. The only country that will be strong enough to do this will be China. Is Europe going to ally with China against the US and Japan? I doubt it. Rather, it might sit out this round...

	17-03-2003 20:06									#27
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I do agree about the bipolar world not being likely. If there will be any US against the world situations in the future it will probably be more in the form of temporary alliances formed our of a specific situation, not a solid block. After all, overall Europe has more in common with the US than with China for example. China, however might see opportunities to play the US against the EU on some issues.

	17-03-2003 22:16									#28
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quote: Originally posted by Kropotkin I do agree about the bipolar world not being likely. If there will be any US against the world situations in the future it will probably be more in the form of temporary alliances formed our of a specific situation, not a solid block. After all, overall Europe has more in common with the US than with China for example. China, however might see opportunities to play the US against the EU on some issues.

Kropotkin, the split between France, Germany and the US is because Saddam played us like a fiddle. A year ago, the attitude of most Americans about the French and Germans was very positive. Today, it is highly negative.

Even Kissinger said that we simply cannot forget what happened and go on. He said we have to review the fundamentals of our relationships and alliances.

I agree. So do most Americans.

The world has changed. Humpty Dumpty has fallen off that wall. All the Kings horses and all the Kings men cannot put Humpty Dumpty together again.

	17-03-2003 22:33									#29
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4 out of the G-7 countries are explicitly supporting US action on Iraq. As long as that happens, there will be no counterweight.

Japan, Italy, UK, and...

Canada isn't explicitly supporting US action. In fact, we are actively trying to prevent US action in a way that won't get us boycotted by Yankistani rednecks and neocons.

	17-03-2003 22:34									#30
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Japan, Italy, UK, and...

G1. The US, of course.

2 out of the G3. 4 out of the G7.