19-03-2003 08:43									#1
	Honestly . . . Got spare money?

I'm rather ambivalent at this moment.

The US is going to pound the bejeezuz out of Baghdad. A lot of civilians are going to die. This is a bad thing. A very, very bad thing. It will be a war crime.

One the one hand, you hope that the Iraqi military surrenders quickly so that or that there's a coup before the bombing begins, so that the Iraqi people don't have to suffer more bloodshed at the hands of Hussein and his accomplices in Washingon. On the other hand, if the military survives intact, that means they'll be available to become part of the new government in the "new" Iraq. Just like how most of the Nazis were "rehabilitated" to form the West German government (in the East the country was thoroughly de-Nazified, so it could have been done in the West), just as how we "rehabilitated" the Frap in Haiti, just as we "rehabilitated" the butchers in Bosnia, we will "rehabilitate" all but the very worst of the Baathists. This isn't good of the Iraqi people either.

So what's better? Being killed in the cross fire and having a purged government or surrendering and having the new boss being the same as the old boss?

We're about to be fooled again.

	19-03-2003 08:46									#2
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why do you say a lot of civilians are going to die?

I say less than 200 directly by U.S. hands. Saddam could kill his own people and blame it on the U.S. though.

	19-03-2003 08:51									#3
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Interesting.
I think you just realized there is no absolute true, no absolute wrong, no absolute good or evil.
There is an age where we believe in Sta. Klaus. There is an age where we believe the world is fair.
Looks to me you just realized the world is not fair, and, whatever option, some bad things will happen anyway.
- - -
Choosing options in a imperfect world: Thats the price of freedom. If you dont want that responsability, just obey orders.

	19-03-2003 08:51									#4
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If the Iraqi military resists, house to house fighting will mean a lot of civilians get killed in the crossfire. As well, the massive amount of bombing that's going to occur is going to kill some people. City fighting is bloody. The US killed hundreds in Mogadishu in one running battle, and they were just trying to escape, not take the city.

It's not gonna be half a million dead like paitkis thinks, but it's gonna be more than a couple hundred.

	19-03-2003 08:54									#5
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quote: Originally posted by carnide_ Interesting. I think you just realized there is no absolute true, no absolute wrong, no absolute good or evil.

No, I'm just disparing.

	19-03-2003 08:55									#6
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we will see. it is too soon to tell.

I posted in the other thread that Iraqis are preparing to surrender.

The road to Bagdhad will be easy.

But I do worry about the republican guard blending in the civilian population as you do. I hope for the best.

	19-03-2003 08:59									#7
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quote: Originally posted by chegitz guevara No, I'm just disparing.

Obey orders! Stop thinking!
That will help.

	19-03-2003 09:00									#8
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Since the US don't have any short-term enemies to fear, the Bushies will most likely try to give Iraq a token democracy. Even if the old generals stay in power, they might be forced by the US not to be too oppressive, to avoid a catstrophic PR and terrorist backlash.
There would be nearly no gain by having a bloody battle : the US-imposed aftermath will not be better with the old junta gone; another junta of corrupt generals will replace them soon.
Plus, a bloodbath during war would create much more destruction, death and suffering than a militaristic authauritrian regime would create in years.

Clearly, a no-no to the bloodbath.

	19-03-2003 09:01									#9
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quote: Originally posted by Dissident I say less than 200 directly by U.S. hands. Saddam could kill his own people and blame it on the U.S. though.

How many more by US actions?

If I were to go into a small, old city and pour poison into a water well, I haven't directly killed anyone.....But I have indirectly killed MANY.

	19-03-2003 09:03									#10
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quote: Originally posted by chegitz guevara Just like how most of the Nazis were "rehabilitated" to form the West German government (in the East the country was thoroughly de-Nazified, so it could have been done in the West)

Just wondering, I honestly don't know but am in assumption... is "de Nazified" a euphemism for "sent to Siberia and/or shot in the back of the head"?

	19-03-2003 09:06									#11
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Tass :
8/10. Artistic

	19-03-2003 09:07									#12
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quote: Originally posted by chegitz guevara If the Iraqi military resists, house to house fighting will mean a lot of civilians get killed in the crossfire. As well, the massive amount of bombing that's going to occur is going to kill some people. City fighting is bloody. The US killed hundreds in Mogadishu in one running battle, and they were just trying to escape, not take the city.

Yeah, the mother****ers in the Mog had Kalashnikovs, Bronwing M2-HB's, a Mark 19, a shitload of RPG-9's, and every other piece of hardware they could find, and they tried to overrun US troops. They paid for it.

US urban warfare doctrine has evolved since then, house to house fighting will be largely unnecessary due to the differences in organization and motivations of the Iraqis vis-a-vis the Habr Gidr and their allies, and bombing in the cities will be limited to very specific types of targets.

Another big difference is Iraqi civilians will be mostly looking to get out of the fight, not join it, and the US will have heavy fighting vehicle support.

It's not gonna be half a million dead like paitkis thinks, but it's gonna be more than a couple hundred. [/QUOTE]

	19-03-2003 09:08									#13
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quote: Originally posted by Spiffor Tass : 8/10. Artistic

Wow Thanks.

	19-03-2003 10:24									#14
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quote: Originally posted by Tassadar5000 How many more by US actions? If I were to go into a small, old city and pour poison into a water well, I haven't directly killed anyone.....But I have indirectly killed MANY.

I believe you misspelled UN, because it is UN sanctions that are imposed on Iraq.

And don't forget, you're saintly Russian government could have used its veto. So don't blame us alone for what your motherland was involved in.

	19-03-2003 12:00									#15
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quote: Originally posted by Zylka Just wondering, I honestly don't know but am in assumption... is "de Nazified" a euphemism for "sent to Siberia and/or shot in the back of the head"?

Denazification was the process of removing Nazi party members from positions of local authority - everything from running transport and utility systems to local mayors. As chegitz pointed out, in East Germany, they were much more thorough in doing this, removing anyone vaguely connectable to the Nazi party (never mind whether they did anything, had any power, or influenced anything), regardless of their competence, and replaced them with good communist lackeys, regardless of their incompetence.

The subsequent economic performance of the two Germany's illustrates the intelligence of the Soviet approach in East Germany. As for counting trees in Siberia or being bullet testers, the Soviets did a fair amount of shipping Nazi party members east, but they didn't really shoot many of them, the occasional summary executions & stuff aside. Military prisoners were another story, but that varied widely in different theaters of the war and different timeframes.

	19-03-2003 12:06									#16
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quote: Originally posted by Felch X I believe you misspelled UN, because it is UN sanctions that are imposed on Iraq.

I believed that the US pushed the sanction through the UN.

	19-03-2003 12:08									#17
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quote: Originally posted by MichaeltheGreat US urban warfare doctrine has evolved since then, house to house fighting will be largely unnecessary due to the differences in organization and motivations of the Iraqis vis-a-vis the Habr Gidr and their allies, and bombing in the cities will be limited to very specific types of targets.

It's pretty much up in the air at this point. As it is said, the best plan falls apart when it meets reality.

quote: Originally posted by MichaeltheGreat Another big difference is Iraqi civilians will be mostly looking to get out of the fight, not join it, and the US will have heavy fighting vehicle support.

Unless it is pure Iraqi propaganda, otherwise some civilians will join the fight against the US/UK forces.

	19-03-2003 12:10									#18
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quote: Originally posted by Tassadar5000 How many more by US actions? If I were to go into a small, old city and pour poison into a water well, I haven't directly killed anyone.....But I have indirectly killed MANY.

Actually, responsibility for that one (the chlorine / water supply quality issue) is squarely on Hussein. There are several other methods besides chlorination for biologically treating potable water supplies. Hussein apparently found more propaganda value in allowing well water to be biologically contaminated. If you're referring to DU, it's a non-issue in well water.

	19-03-2003 12:15									#19
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quote: Originally posted by Urban Ranger It's pretty much up in the air at this point. As it is said, the best plan falls apart when it meets reality.

Benning has a very nice urban warfare training center, staffed by loving professionals who take pride in ruining the days of the trainees who pass through there.

One very big difference is that in a city as large as Baghdad, with huge avenues and open spaces, and heavy equipment, you won't need to occupy every building. Instead, you can just isolate sections of the city one at a time, cut off water supplies, let the civilians out (not many Iraqi soldiers would be motivated to take their own civilian hostages), and let the firepower from the heavies work for you. Most Iraqis will come out rather than die in place.

quote: Unless it is pure Iraqi propaganda, otherwise some civilians will join the fight against the US/UK forces.

Some, not many, not for long, and with minimal capability. In a city of 4 million or so, there will be some.

	19-03-2003 18:16									#20
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quote: Originally posted by Urban Ranger It's pretty much up in the air at this point. As it is said, the best plan falls apart when it meets reality.

That cuts both ways.

	19-03-2003 18:21									#21
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quote: Originally posted by MichaeltheGreat The subsequent economic performance of the two Germany's illustrates the intelligence of the Soviet approach in East Germany.

It also means that a lot of Nazis got away with their war crimes.

Given that East Germany had the 11th highest standard of living in the world according to US statistics, the Soviet de-Nazification program wasn't too much of a hindrence. Furthermore, the East had to deal with a lot more sabotage than the West did, as well as having it's engineers and educated actively recruited by Western intelligence agencies and sucked out of the country. They did quite well considering the problems they faced. I'm sure the Iraqis could do well enough without the Baathists.

If you're gonna do the job, don't do it halfway. Either don't invade or destroy Ba'athism root and branch.

	19-03-2003 18:40									#22
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America, how do I despise you? Let me count the ways.

Last edited by SlowwHand on 19-03-2003 at 18:46

	19-03-2003 18:45									#23
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"Given that East Germany had the 11th highest standard of living in the world according to US statistics"

CIA stats?

	19-03-2003 18:48									#24
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quote: Originally posted by HershOstropoler "Given that East Germany had the 11th highest standard of living in the world according to US statistics" CIA stats?

The US government puts out these books of statistics, big blue books, forget what they're called though.

	19-03-2003 18:52									#25
	Put an end to popups!

According to my old Britannica Encyclopedia from 1987 East Germany and Checoslovaquia had the highest standards of life of the communist world.

The gnp per Capita of western Germany was 14460 dlr USA and the gnp per capita of eastern Germany was 12430 dlr USA.

So, even though it was not as developed as Western Germany it was a very developed country.

	19-03-2003 18:52									#26
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The DDR had about 40 % of the west german living standards, and that only by living from the substance. Western intelligence largely underestimated the degree of economic decay; essentially the whole capital stock of the DDR economy was worthless under market conditions.

"The gnp per Capita of western Germany was 14460 dlr USA and the gnp per capita of eastern Germany was 12430 dlr USA."

A guesstimate that does not match the post 1989 experience.

	19-03-2003 21:44									#27
	Re: Re: Re: Re: Honestly . . . Increase Your PM Length

quote: Originally posted by chegitz guevara Furthermore, the East had to deal with a lot more sabotage than the West did, as well as having it's engineers and educated actively recruited by Western intelligence agencies and sucked out of the country. They did quite well considering the problems they faced.

Do you know what this reminds me of?

quote: Our armies didnīt lose the war, they were stabbed in the back.

And if they did such a nice job, why did West Germany have to spend so many billions of dollars to fix the place up? And it didnīt take much effort to get East Germans out of the country. All you had to do was give them the means to escape the walls and guards that the Communists built to keep them imprisoned in the place.

I think this P.J. OīRourke quote sums up the situation nicely:

quote: Only the Communists could make a poor country out of a nation full of Germans.

And on-topic, street fighting does tend to be a bloody mess. Letīs just hope they can get the Iraquis to surrender before it comes to that.

	19-03-2003 21:47									#28
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quote: Originally posted by MichaeltheGreat One very big difference is that in a city as large as Baghdad, with huge avenues and open spaces, and heavy equipment, you won't need to occupy every building. Instead, you can just isolate sections of the city one at a time, cut off water supplies, let the civilians out (not many Iraqi soldiers would be motivated to take their own civilian hostages), and let the firepower from the heavies work for you. Most Iraqis will come out rather than die in place. Some, not many, not for long, and with minimal capability. In a city of 4 million or so, there will be some.

Baghdad is a very old city. There may be some bright shiny new broad avenues, but I suspect that large portions of the city more resemble Le Casbah rather than Le Champs d'Elysee. The sheer density and size of these parts of the city will mean that guerillas can fight a mobile battle, sniping from one spot, then staging a fighting withdrawal to another spot if they're well organized. With regards to the use of heavy equipment, I'd hate to see us bull dozing large portions of an ancient city and getting the sort of reputation for ruthless heavy-handedness that the Israelis have gotten. Furthermore I wouldn't completely count on the Iraqis military not demanding extreme sacrifices from the civilian population, either by ignoring the privations of a prolonged siege, or even using them as humn shields. Remember the Palestinians?