21-03-2003 15:49									#1
	Why Hasn't Iraq attacked Israel Full PM-box? Change here!

They did last time, I would have thought it would be their first move. Do they not have the missiles

	21-03-2003 15:52									#2
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Iraq's command structure is very much a top-down affair.

Maybe the top is...down?

	21-03-2003 15:54									#3
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I wonder why terrorists haven't yet attacked the angloamericans myself.

	21-03-2003 15:55									#4
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The Al-Samoud II missiles won't reach Israel, and if they have any Scuds left, they might just use them for a "last salute" kind of affair, launching chemical or biological payloads at Israel when all seems lost...

	21-03-2003 16:06									#5
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the palestinians are in charge of doing that.

	21-03-2003 16:09									#6
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You ignorant slut! Dont you know iraq is a threat to everyone in the region! They will use these weapons eventually!

	21-03-2003 16:12									#7
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As I look at it, I think it's too late now. They should have done that long time ago. THey can't gain any momentum attacking Israel. Quite the opposite, they would just smash their heads against brick wall that hits back hard.

I don't understand their strategy now. Either it's non-existent, or they have it, they just haven't showed their cards yet, which would be wise thing to do, but then again we're not talking about strong military force so.. there just might not be one.

They should have attacked way earlier, but it seems like they have already been submitted mentally to fight in their own soil. That's a fight they can't win, and can't inflict enough damage to others so that the war might stop. I'm waiting for the same thing like the rest of us, Saddam letting those chem and bio weapons loose when he sees his moment has come. Naturally I hope it isn't so.

I don't know, I'm not a master strategist myself, but Saddam had lots of options fighting this war, but he hasn't used any of the opportunities as of yet.

	21-03-2003 16:17									#8
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I hope he doesn't but i would guess his best chance is to get the other arabs on side and the best way of doing that would be to hurt Israel to such an extent they go nuts and flatten somewhere in Iraq

	21-03-2003 16:20									#9
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baghdad has over 4 million inhabitants. the only viable tactics are to draw americans into a bloody city battle and expect the infamous arab street to actually do someting.

	21-03-2003 16:22									#10
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Somalia style.

	21-03-2003 16:34									#11
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quote: They did last time, I would have thought it would be their first move. Do they not have the missiles

I am rather certain that they do, but in rather limited numbers. I wouldn't be surprised if they do launch them some time soon.

	21-03-2003 16:36									#12
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I heard the israeli army has adviced israeli internet users not to reviele "senbsitive information"
so im counting on you Azazel to keep that up

	21-03-2003 16:43									#13
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They probably don't have any scuds nowadays. The reports about scud attacks against Quwait was probably some other missile confused for scud by some reporter without the proper knowledge or information.

Dragging Israel into it all could be a really good PR stunt my Mr. Hussein as it would give him some more arabic support. A Israel at war makes them see red no matter what. However, as Pekka just pointed out it's quite to late for that to have any real significant effect on the development.

	21-03-2003 16:45									#14
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quote: They probably don't have any scuds nowadays

I am quite certain of the opposite. I saw satellite pics of erector-launchers.

Paiktis:

	21-03-2003 16:50									#15
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Iraqi strategy is to defend. Their only chance is to inflict a substantial amount of causalties on the US troops by street fighting.

	21-03-2003 16:54									#16
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Maybe the do, maybe they don't. Regardless of this the last wars attacks against Israel where quite pathetic afterall and it's not likely that they can reach even that level today. They probably have few of them if any and the AA is improved since then.

	21-03-2003 17:05									#17
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quote: Regardless of this the last wars attacks against Israel where quite pathetic afterall and it's not likely that they can reach even that level today

well, they were conventional. A nerve agent could cause more damage. Nothing on the scale of a nuke, still many civilian casualties.

	21-03-2003 17:10									#18
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Considering that Israel has to put up with the risk of suicide bombers on a daily basis one wouldn't think the minimal risk that a scud with something else than a conventional warhead would be lanched and reach its target is something one can live with.

	21-03-2003 17:13									#19
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That's why almost noone is really afraid here.

	21-03-2003 20:31									#20
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It seems to me that the best Saddam can hope for now is to not launch any SCUDS (if he has any) or use any WMD's (again, if he has any) so that he becomes the ultimate martyr for the Arab people. "See, there was no justification for the US/British invasion. Pure war of aggression".

	21-03-2003 20:39									#21
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I doubt that he will refrain from using Scuds. After all, they're not "nasty" banned weapons (as nerve gas or anthrax would be). Scuds, without those payloads, wouldn't qualify as WoMD.

Of course, it's still possible that Saddam is either dead, injured, or trapped in a bunker buried under rubble. He may not be physically capable of authorizing the use of whatever they still have.

	21-03-2003 20:52									#22
	Re: Why Hasn't Iraq attacked Israel Avatar Enlargement: We've got the solution

quote: Originally posted by TheStinger They did last time, I would have thought it would be their first move. Do they not have the missiles

Yeah, and it was really effective then wasn't it? What was it, one casualty because someone had a heart attack? And if they do have the missiles, they will have alot less than they did then. So they'll be saving what they have left for the defence of Baghdad.

	21-03-2003 20:59									#23
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True willem, but you can't use SCUDS in defending Baghdad (hat's not the kind of weapons you need for that)

idd, I wouldn't fear a rocket attack from Saddam, his rockets (if he has any left) are so badly constructed that they will miss their target anyway

	21-03-2003 21:05									#24
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"Of course, it's still possible that Saddam is either dead, injured, or trapped in a bunker buried under rubble."

But then who's running the show for Iraq then? I'm assuming someone's in charge that their forces feel obliged to fight for...

	21-03-2003 21:06									#25
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quote: Originally posted by Trajanus True willem, but you can't use SCUDS in defending Baghdad (hat's not the kind of weapons you need for that)

Maybe not, but if it looks like everything is going down in flames, they will come in handy for his final revenge. Saddam knows that if he uses weapons he's not supposed to have that he will lose whatever support he has. He may be twisted, but he's not stupid! He won't fire off any illegal weapons until the last moment, when it looks like all is lost.

	21-03-2003 21:19									#26
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quote: Originally posted by Tolls "Of course, it's still possible that Saddam is either dead, injured, or trapped in a bunker buried under rubble." But then who's running the show for Iraq then? I'm assuming someone's in charge that their forces feel obliged to fight for...

Well, reports seem to be suggesting that the Iraqui response is so uncoordinated that it's as if nobody IS running the show.

	21-03-2003 21:21									#27
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In which case we should get a mass of surrenders over the next 24 hours, when they realise there's no one in Baghdad...though I would have expected them to give up sooner.

	21-03-2003 21:39									#28
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Probably those in positions of power in Saddam's regime would have a vested interest in preserving the illusion that he's still alive. At least for a while. Their own authority depends on him.

	21-03-2003 21:40									#29
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quote: Originally posted by Kontiki It seems to me that the best Saddam can hope for now is to not launch any SCUDS (if he has any) or use any WMD's (again, if he has any) so that he becomes the ultimate martyr for the Arab people. "See, there was no justification for the US/British invasion. Pure war of aggression".

Quite.

If he has any NCB weapons before, you can count on him destroying them. Thus, when all else fails, he and his sons and slip away under the cover of darkness.

	21-03-2003 21:42									#30
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I'm just not terribly convinced the structure underneath him was strong enough to hold up the pretence for even this long...and I think we (CNN) have just been given the boot from Baghdad, which says to me that there is still someone in charge, and not just a hodge podge of lieutenants.