22-03-2003 05:55									#1
	How long do you think that war on Iraq is going to last? Support Apolyton, buy GURPS/ Alpha Centauri

?

	22-03-2003 06:03									#2
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I give it two weeks.

	22-03-2003 06:03									#3
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Well, if Saddam pulls a Stalingrad in Baghdad(which I fear is where this is leading to), probably a while.

	22-03-2003 06:04									#4
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A poll would really help this thread!

Ask Ming to delete this one and post the same thread again with a poll.

But just in case the thread is not closed, if the war goes as it is right now, then the main stage of the war shouldn't last for more than two weeks.

However, if trouble with Turkey and the Kurds breaks out or if the Republican Guard poses a graver threat than at first thought (ie. Guerrilla Warfare, Suicide bombing, chemical weapons attacks etc...) then the war may run into months.

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~Dominik - Lord of the Putumayo~

	22-03-2003 06:04									#5
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Tough to say, as the main offensive hasn't really begun, AFAIK. 8 days?

	22-03-2003 06:07									#6
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I get the impression that it is going to be short.

	22-03-2003 06:14									#7
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The only reasons that this war would last for any extended period of time would be a) extreme resistance in Baghdad or b) the use of biological/chemical/nuclear weapons.

	22-03-2003 06:17									#8
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I get the feeling the Iraqi people are VERY tired after years of deprivation.

	22-03-2003 09:39									#9
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quote: Originally posted by Verto The only reasons that this war would last for any extended period of time would be a) extreme resistance in Baghdad or b) the use of biological/chemical/nuclear weapons.

You forgot c) Turkey goes and ****s the whole thing up.

Otherwise, the war itself will be short. Putting the pieces back together, on the other hand, could take decades.

	22-03-2003 09:45									#10
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As long as it take. That is how long.

	22-03-2003 09:48									#11
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Guynemer - Shouldn't the Turks be allowed to follow the Bush doctrine of Peace through War ? They're staging a pre-emptive strike.

North Korea looks like they too are embracing the Bush doctrine.

American's should be rejoicing - your example is being followed !

... as for the question of how long the war on Iraq will last - ask me again next year.

btw - I give Jordan's King 10 days.

	22-03-2003 09:50									#12
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Sorry Uncle Sparky... I think you have me confused with someone who thinks this whole endeavor is a good idea. I'm still undecided.

I just think the Turks could make this thing last much, much, much longer that it otherwise would.

	22-03-2003 09:58									#13
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Sorry, Guynemer.

It wasn't meant as a personal attack. As I have expressed before, the domino effect that the Bush league is hoping for could very well backfire causing far more damage that the US bargained for.

I still think WWIII could easily come out of this - but a new type where attacks could happen to anyone anywhere. The Bush team is also anticipating this eventuality but charging ahead.

	22-03-2003 10:00									#14
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quote: Originally posted by Uncle Sparky btw - I give Jordan's King 10 days.

Islamic uprise? What about the House of Saud?

	22-03-2003 10:16									#15
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The House of Saud has an iron clamp on Arabia.

Jordan has been waiting to explode for years... I suspect it will end up another Lebanon, unless the Coalition moves west to prop up the government. Under prior American leaders, this would have been done with finesse e.g.. - assisting with refuge containment.

	22-03-2003 10:27									#16
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Seeing as the BBC is reporting that the Iraqis are still holding sections of the 'liberated' city of Umm Qasr, which is near the Kuwaiti boarder, this campaign could prove tougher then expected.

Still, despite my opposition to it, I hope the bloody thing is over quickly.

	22-03-2003 10:44									#17
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... and I still haven't seen the victory parade through the streets of Basra - Remember only a couple of days ago CNN suggested that the Iraqis would be so grateful to the American troops for liberating them that they would be welcomed as heroes.

The last I hear, British & American troops had surrounded Basra almost 24 hours ago - what's the delay? Did the Iraqis request more time to assemble bouquets for the troops, or aren't things going quite to script.

btw - Dubya is a moron. And while I have disagreed with many American policies in the last 30+ years, Dubya is the only American president I consider a true moron.

	22-03-2003 10:50									#18
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long enough

	22-03-2003 16:37									#19
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quote: The last I hear, British & American troops had surrounded Basra almost 24 hours ago - what's the delay?

They may well be screening the city in order not to get sucked into avoidable urban conflict. I understand that there's also some concern that Iraqi hardliners could blow up dams near the city and flood the entire district.

On the other hand http://www.abc.net.au/news/newsitems/s813642.htm reports that US marines are fighting on the western outskirts of Basra.

	22-03-2003 16:55									#20
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quote: Originally posted by Case They may well be screening the city in order not to get sucked into avoidable urban conflict. I understand that there's also some concern that Iraqi hardliners could blow up dams near the city and flood the entire district. On the other hand http://www.abc.net.au/news/newsitems/s813642.htm reports that US marines are fighting on the western outskirts of Basra.

From the article:

quote: Captain Bergen says he is not aware of any casualties on the US side, but that an armoured vehicle used to retrieve damaged tanks had been hit by a rocket-propelled brigade.

I'd say that's just a little overkill on the Iraqis' part.

	22-03-2003 17:03									#21
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I think that the report should have read rocket propelled grenade

On the other hand, the individual jet pack may be making it's combat debut with the Iraqi Army

	22-03-2003 21:47									#22
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2-4 weeks against Saddam's regime.

	22-03-2003 22:28									#23
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But I would REALLY like to see a rocket propelled brigade. That would be a sight for sore eyes

Asmodean

	22-03-2003 23:06									#24
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Well, Little Bush just announced on TV that the war may take "longer than some people thought"

	23-03-2003 00:35									#25
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Early reports the 3-ID has engaged a lead scout element of the Hamurabai Republican Gaurd. The 3 dozen or so troops surrendured

	23-03-2003 00:35									#26
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ill say 3 days.

	23-03-2003 03:08									#27
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quote: quote: Captain Bergen says he is not aware of any casualties on the US side, but that an armoured vehicle used to retrieve damaged tanks had been hit by a rocket-propelled brigade.

rotfl

The bigger, better suicide bomber ?!?

	23-03-2003 03:20									#28
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It might be over in a day or two. If we kill the two RG divisions defending the gates of Baghdad, there is nothing left to defend the city. At that point, the leadership in Baghdad collapses and flees. A bloodbath should the ensue in the city as reprisals against the Bathe party ensues. US forces will enter the city to restore public order.

The rest of the campaign will be "mop up" as Iraqi units surrender control to Coalition units as they arrive.