22-03-2003 21:35									#31
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quote: Originally posted by DanS It looks to me like this should be approached like any other coup. The biggest goals would then be taking over the TV, radio, and government buildings.

That's how a dictatorship happens.


The people are the ones armed with the kalasnikovs. They can do without TV.

The question remains how are they going to capture it

and the will (and armament) of the Iraquis

	22-03-2003 21:36									#32
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Who knows? He look very, very dangerous to me! Kind of like that rabbit in "The quest for the holy grail".

	22-03-2003 21:39									#33
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Krp, yeah another thing is that the US has no idea about guerilla fighting. Look at Somalia. They can only bomb from above like the ****** they are.


However, let's stick to the topic, shall why?

The ineptitude of americans at real fighting comes to point though too, if they're going in.

If.

So what do you think will happen?

	22-03-2003 21:41									#34
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This post has been edited. I will post what I had to say here later.


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~Dominik - Lord of the Putumayo~

Last edited by Dominikos on 22-03-2003 at 21:52

	22-03-2003 21:41									#35
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I doubt the US would allow a siege to go on long enough to cause a humanitarian crisis: I think, for example, the us won't bomb the electrical system or the water system, making a siege far less painful for the populace. Also, the Regime did hand out extra rations to the populace, so a humanitarian crisis would be minimized.

The US wants this war to end quickly, as each extra day simply allows anger in Muslim araes to fester. Now, that has to be balanced against the fact that, if certain elemets of the regime do resist, then the only way to end that quickly would incur heavy casualties.

	22-03-2003 21:42									#36
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There's probably no way to prepare to take a city the size of Bagdad without considerable loses if they in fact will try to take it by force. Even the most elite troops would take some casualites. Unless all of them are cloned copies of John Rambo but for some reason I find that unlikely.

	22-03-2003 21:47									#37
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Gepap, however, if you have water and electricity intact the siege will last a long time dont you think?

	22-03-2003 21:53									#38
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The US wants to give the impression above all else, that this is a battle solely against the regime. This won't be a siege of the old kind: as i said, the US will probably come up to the city, try to sort out who gives up and who doesn't, and then move in to destroy the pockets of resistance in ways which minimize civilian casualties. I don't think the US will face much resistcne form the populace, nor help either. Most people will stay indoors waiting for the dust to settle.

HOw bloody it beocmes depends on hjow stubborn resistance by the hard-core supporters of the regime is, and what tactics they decide to use. Also, if areas of the city are left without central authority, form either the Iraqis or the US, internal chaos might break out, with all those armed people.

	22-03-2003 21:58									#39
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So you think the Iraqiu population will not fight to protect their country?


You maybe are making the mistake to identify the "country" with the "Regime":

Dominikos had a nice explanation of the difference.

Of course that was part of the question, the most important one maybe, how psyched up are the Iraquis for Bagdat.

	22-03-2003 22:00									#40
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Zorba: Where is Bagdat? Is it anywhere near Baghdad?

	22-03-2003 22:03									#41
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Just be glad I don't write it ÂáãäÜôç, and get it over with Moneypeny

	22-03-2003 22:04									#42
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quote: Originally posted by paiktis22 Just be glad I don't write it ÂáãäÜôç, and get it over with Moneypeny

Sorry. It was getting annoying since it has been spelled correctly in this thread for you.

	22-03-2003 22:06									#43
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quote: Originally posted by paiktis22 So you think the Iraqiu population will not fight to protect their country? You maybe are making the mistake to identify the "country" with the "Regime": Dominikos had a nice explanation of the difference. Of course that was part of the question, the most important one maybe, how psyched up are the Iraquis for Bagdat.

What country? Iraq has been held together by repression much like Yugoslavia was. The people have little stake in it. Everyone knows the days of the regime are over. the only ones who will fight for it are those that are so embedded in it they have little chance of survival without it. The masses are waiting for the aftermath. It is once the regime is gone that you may see people tking up amrs, against each other to secure places of pwoer in the new system. Such a situation should not be too ba din places chock full of GI's, but elsewhere it might get ugly. (lest hope it doesn't...)

	22-03-2003 22:06									#44
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Why should I include your useless "h" since you understand?

I make the english language more efficient.

	22-03-2003 22:08									#45
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quote: Originally posted by paiktis22 That's how a dictatorship happens. The people are the ones armed with the kalasnikovs. They can do without TV. The question remains how are they going to capture it and the will (and armament) of the Iraquis

The will and the armament of the Iraqis will for the most part mean nothing.

In Saddam's regime, "suggestions" of appropriate behavior from the government aren't ignored, unless you're feeling a tad suicidal. So when Saddam, pre-war, suggests the people arm themselves to defend the regime, they comply. When it's clear that the regime is gone, and most of it's military has surrendered, very few civilians are going to be interested in fighting, and those, almost exclusively ones who are dirty in the regime's many crimes, so they have no future in a post-Saddam Iraq.

Baghdad has a lot of wide-open spaces, so it's not like Grozny or Mogadishu at all - it's relatively easy to isolate different areas of the city, and secure them one at a time.

Dan - SOF forces were in Baghdad last time, so for sure they're on the ground in and around there now.

	22-03-2003 22:08									#46
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**Note: I deleted this same post on the previous page since it was one of the last posts and the last posts have the misfortune of not being read. I will post it here.**

Has everyone forgotten the lessons from history.

quote: Only my personal speculation. If the US surround the city they will probably give up after a while. Just bomb them until they are ready to embrace american democracy.

Just bomb them? Bombing Baghdad into submission would result in the deaths of tens of thousands if not hundreds of thousands of Iraqi casualties. The United States would begin to face pressure from the world community to stop bombing.

World War II has taught us that bombing people into submission does not work, it only infuriates them even further.

I would like to point out that this war is quite different. The Gulf War was about driving Iraq out of Kuwait. This time, the Coalition is driving straight into Iraq. Saddam and his command are not going throw in their best forces into battles fought on the field. They know they would lose. Guerrilla warfare is an entirely different thing. Everyone must know that if the Iraqis (including civilian population) are infuriated enough by the Coalition's advance into their country, they can make American and allied lives very miserable. The leaders of the Coalition are aware that a fragile situation exists and they must be extremely careful about everything they do (ie. notice the reaction of the American military command when American soldiers decided to raise American flags over victory locations - those flags were quickly brought down.) We are not peacekeeping yet my friends. We are fighting another country. Do not assume that just because the bulk of Iraq's population (most likely) does not love Saddam, that they will not turn on the coalition forces "temporarily" occupying their country.

The best thing to do (for us that is), would be to try and imagine ourselves as the Iraqis. What would we do. It's like the domino effect. A few Iraqis are infuriated by the American advance on their homes, more Iraqis see what's going on, they in turn become infuriated and on and on we go....

I may disagree with Kropotkin's second statement but I agree with his first...

quote: While the support for Hussein alone shouldn't make that many people do that but on the other hand people have a tendency to take it personal when someone attacks their home.

I would make it personal business as well, if someone from a far off land began to make themselves at home in my country. The United States has incredible weaponry but they know they cannot take advantage of it in just any situation.

Anyone agree/disagree?

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~Dominik - Lord of the Putumayo~

	22-03-2003 22:09									#47
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well then, change the last 't' to a 'd', since it is a 'd' sound and not a 't' sound.

	22-03-2003 22:09									#48
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quote: Originally posted by paiktis22 Why should I include your useless "h" since you understand?

You don't have to add the "h" just remove the "t" and replace it with a "d."

	22-03-2003 22:12									#49
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you people should just switch to the greek aplhabet, english is too restricted

So MtG,
in your assessment, the Iraqis will virtually not mount any guerilla fighting of a significant scale?

	22-03-2003 22:16									#50
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quote: When it's clear that the regime is gone, and most of it's military has surrendered, very few civilians are going to be interested in fighting

You're assuming that the population of Iraq will be overjoyed to have the coalition in their country.

We won't know the civilian reaction until we occupy Baghdad.

------------------
~Dominik - Lord of the Putumayo~

	22-03-2003 22:18									#51
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I too am of the opinion that the civilians in Bagdat prefer their own ruler than an invading force.


They wont be fighting for sadam necessairily (although many will) but for their country which is being invaded, 2 different things.


Of course we'll have to see.


Also you all assume that there will be a ground invasion, from what I gather?

	22-03-2003 22:21									#52
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Dominikos: I wasn't thinking of bombing the city in general, but the enemy units. i guess I didn't make that clear. Obviously it would lead to quite some civilian casualitis as well but from a american political perspective iraqi deaths is better than the deaths of american soldiers. It might annoy the rest of the world but Bush have annoyed them so much by now that some more wount matter.

	22-03-2003 22:23									#53
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A side note: The only "right" way to spell Bagdad is in the way that the locals spell it. How they spell it I don't know.

	22-03-2003 22:23									#54
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the question is wether the whole 4 million (or many of them) of Bagdat civilians will be the enemy units though.

	22-03-2003 22:24									#55
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Anyone with a moustache is an enemy!

	22-03-2003 22:26									#56
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oh thats very nice.

all they have to do is shave to confuse the enemy

	22-03-2003 22:51									#57
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quote: Originally posted by paiktis22 you people should just switch to the greek aplhabet, english is too restricted So MtG, in your assessment, the Iraqis will virtually not mount any guerilla fighting of a significant scale?

Some will, but not anything near a widespread, unified resistance. The key for US forces when they have to fight is to isolate those pockets of resistance, then go in on search missions in relative overwhelming force - if you have a section of 10-12 blocks of city that's isolated, a couple of battalions of infantry is pretty overwhelming. If you have your forces scattered in small unit actions, it reduces their overwatch capability and also reduces the psychological impact on the enemy.

One big different between Iraq and Serbia, for instance, is that the Iraqi mindset has been built on a cult of personality for Saddam, not for Iraqi nationalism. Iraqis are used to compliance with power, and once Saddam is gone, they won't have a strong sense of nationalism to drive hatred of the allies and a will to fight at any cost.

Psyops and humanitarian aid will be huge weapons in preventing Iraqi resistance. What 95-98% of the people want is just to be able to eat, work and live in relative lack of poverty and fear. There's a certain percentage of *******s who've benefitted under Saddam's rule, and it's a tough question how we deal with those. Killing them if they resist is attractive, but ultimately, resorts in more fighting. Buying them off eliminates the fighting problem, but it's a lot of work for the occupation authorities and interim government to sort out who really needs to be tried and punished, and who can be forgiven, but kept out of future power, in the interests of moving the country forward into the post-Saddam era.

Overall, though, there will be little guerilla fighting, simply because relatively few people have enough of a stake in things as they were to risk their lives in such fighting.