22-03-2003 21:03									#1
	How psyched up are the Iraqis for a guerilla warfare in Bagdat. Support Apolyton, buy Galactic Civilizations: Deluxe Edition

When you get grannies and 5 year olds tottin' that kalasnikov square in your face from their balconies, it gets nasty.


Do you think the Iraqis are psyched up enough to mount a geniune urban guerilla warfare counteroffensive against the US/UK invasion?


Also what does your "sources" tell you about how many Iraqis civilians have arms?

	22-03-2003 21:05									#2
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I seem to remember that a great many Iraqi civilians were being armed by Hussein (and some were purchasing their own), but that he had not passed out ammunition (yet).

	22-03-2003 21:06									#3
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I saw on TV a while ago, a lot of civilians are buying weapons and ammo on their own accord.

	22-03-2003 21:07									#4
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"How psyched up are the Iraqis for a guerilla warfare in Bagdat?"
I think that most of them would prefer a tript to the dentist for a root canal operation.

	22-03-2003 21:08									#5
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Thanks.

BTW how are the angloamerican **** going to capture Bagdat if not by sending ground troops in?

LS - that's the dental torture resistance factor to US questioning, different thing.

	22-03-2003 21:09									#6
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I think it's hard to know. While the support for Hussein alone shouldn't make that many people do that but on the other hand people have a tendency to take it personal when someone attacks their home. Probably the development up until a possible assault* will affect their fighting spirit.

* Possible only, it's quite possible that the US army isn't willing to take a risk on a assault and besiege the city 'til they surrender.

	22-03-2003 21:10									#7
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Besiege Bagdat?
I see, thanks.

	22-03-2003 21:11									#8
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Mogadishu will probably be the closest comparison. Berlin or Grozny-style is not likely, mostly beacuse US will rather back off than sacrificing all those troops.

	22-03-2003 21:11									#9
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If Basra is any model, cooliton troops will surround the city and then hope for a surrender of the defenders as to avoid any fighting in it. I wonder how well that will work in the north.

It seems that in Basra, the regular forces, as expected, gave up, but the Security forces are not. hmm, I wonder how mnay men make up Saddam's security apparatus?

	22-03-2003 21:13									#10
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Only my personal speculation. If the US surround the city they will probably give up after a while. Just bomb them until they are ready to embrace american democracy.

	22-03-2003 21:14									#11
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UR I see thanks.

Who could supply Bagdat if they besieg it?

And wouldn't scores die in order for the angloamericans to do it "correctly?" = make scores die to make them surrender?

	22-03-2003 21:15									#12
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Gepap: I believe i've read a figure around 50,000 men out of witch 10,000 are the core elite; the special guards.

	22-03-2003 21:18									#13
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quote: Originally posted by Kropotkin Only my personal speculation. If the US surround the city they will probably give up after a while. Just bomb them until they are ready to embrace american democracy.

Thats what they're doing now. However they have to try and be careful so they dont kill them massively and bring up more public outrage against the US/UK.

WHich leaves 3 alternatives?

_bomb them and kill them anyway untill they surrender
_besieg the city
_send in gorund troops


what do you think?

	22-03-2003 21:18									#14
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If people are arming themselves in Iraq, those weapons are more likely to be used against each other once the regime falls than to defend the regime.

	22-03-2003 21:21									#15
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Where is Bagdat? Never heard of it.

	22-03-2003 21:21									#16
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They interviewed some buyers on NPR the other day. As GePap says, many seem quite concerned that the city will fall into anarchy rather than any fear of advancing US troops.

	22-03-2003 21:22									#17
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GEPaP, could well be, however we're for the moment talking about the defense of Bagdat against the US/UK invasion.

	22-03-2003 21:23									#18
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Ah, the only way to conquer the city is by surprise tactics.

1. Gass the city with anasthetic and hallucinatic agents.
2. Land 3,000 airborne spec-ops with night vision and gas masks.
3. Take out most opposition.
4. Enter the city with 50,000 troops.

	22-03-2003 21:26									#19
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I'm guessing that Seals are operating in the city already.

	22-03-2003 21:28									#20
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People can just wear masks for the gasses in that science fiction scenario.

DanS, they can well operate within it, the question is how are they planning to capture it?

See my options above. What do you think?

	22-03-2003 21:28									#21
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No, danny. Bagdad is far from the sea. There's no seals there.

Unless of cource there's such a thing as mesopotamian river seals

	22-03-2003 21:29									#22
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Yep. Where there's water...

	22-03-2003 21:29									#23
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Ok Dan could have meant special forces in general.

The question remains about how are they planning to catpuire the city, the moral of the Iraqi population and their armament.

	22-03-2003 21:30									#24
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quote: Originally posted by Kropotkin Unless of cource there's such a thing as mesopotamian river seals

Well there is an Austrian navy.

	22-03-2003 21:30									#25
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I think we will se a repeat of Basar on a more massive scale. Come up to the city, figure out which Iraqi units will give up, wait till they give up, then attack those units that have not. We will end up sending forces into Baghdad eventually. But it won't be like Grozny.

	22-03-2003 21:31									#26
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GePap, so a siege.


However what about the civilian population?

	22-03-2003 21:32									#27
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To paiktis:

	22-03-2003 21:32									#28
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And about the Siege, how are they going to do it? See my options for some clues.

	22-03-2003 21:32									#29
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It looks to me like this should be approached like any other coup. The biggest goals would then be taking over the TV, radio, and government buildings.

	22-03-2003 21:34									#30
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is that a mesopotamian seal?