26-03-2003 13:25									#1
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During our latest chat between mostly FA members and Trip, the conversation led to some interesting scenarios which are related to our future dealings with GCA, CDG and CFC (gotta love those acronyms).

Before I go on, I just want to say that this is not something I am pushing for... yet. It is just an idea, an idea that I feel must be considered by the community as a whole since the repercussions are intersting but serious.

Ok, first of all let's consider one thing. Everything we do is based on the interests of our civ and our civ alone. We will not rush into things without the assurance that we will be successful at doing it, and for that reason I desire the feedback from as many people as possible. We must not be guided by hunches or whims, but by facts. Warmongers, builders, everyone.

This is the deal. We are 99% certain that we share the continent with 3 civs: GCA, CDG and CFC. The full layout of our continent is unsure, but we have agreed that the most probable locations are GCA=SE, CDG=S, and CFC=further south, with probably no significant land to the west. Geographically speaking, we are talking more or less about a "buffer" which is CDG and to a lesser extent GCA between CFC and us.

Now for the plan.
We are inevitably involved in a 4-way power stuggle to rule this continent. The issues are trivial and diplomatic at the moment, but will get more serious in the future, as all civs will have more to gain and lose. In the totally hypothetical situation (as of now... don't get excited F-P ) that we were to consider war in a 4-way power struggle for this continent (which will eventually happen most likely) what are our best options?

We must consider first:
1) The realtive advantages of each civ, taking into account their UU. Both CDG and Poly have early UUs, one of which is offensive, while ours is defensive. Neither of the other civs have UUs in the ancient era, thus, CDG will have a better offensive capability, while we are best defensively.

2) Geographical considerations. From a purely geo-strategical outlook, who's elimination is of greater interest to us? Which course of action can prevent a civ to become too powerful in the future?

3) Diplomatic considerations. How will this affect our reputation with other civs? Will we be seen as a back-stabbing aggressor or al tough civ which means business (or a passive weakling). Which civ's relationship should we seek to strengthen? Who will we backstab and who will back us up if we do?

Now for the machiavellian plan:

During the chat, at first I proposed the following plan:

1. Alliance between us, CDG and GCA vs. CFC

we commit various Mercs to battle, CDG puts in the Immortals and GCA some horsemen (if they have horses). CFC won't stand a chance.

Pros: we wipe out a potential future threat which presumably has some very good players which could cause us trouble in the future (they are China after all, the militaristic civ par excellance). We also avoid those same 3 civs ganging up on us which would presumably be the only way to wipe us out early. CFC might also have better territory (jungle's can't be THAT big).

Cons: If CFC is defeated, we would have trouble getting some of the spoils for geographical reasons. We could agree with CDG a trade-off, getting most of the territory north of their capital while they and GCA split CFC's territory. Anyway, such agreements must be done once better knowledge of territory is available. Also, if we are accused of backstabbing, the victor always holds the truth, we can always claim they are sore losers . CDG and GCA would probably fall along since they have the same to lose from a reputation hit.


Then Trip proposed a different deal:


2. Alliance with CFC vs GCA and CDG

Pros: we eliminate the two civs that represent the greatest immediate geographical threat to us (especially CDG). We are also release from the "choke" that our territory is currently imposing on us. Also, since CFC's defense would in theory be weaker than ours, the Immortals would probably go south first which takes us off the hook for a while.

Cons: we are left with a civ in the continent which in theory will be just as powerful as us, will be even more powerful in the medieval era and may have better terrain. In all respects, they represent a more powerful long-term threat than CDG or GCA.


...now what's BRILLIANT is that we can actually combine both of these plans to produce an even better one:

3. Combo Plan

Basically the idea is to agree to plan #1, a 3-way alliance against CFC. CFC won't stand a chance. Yet, if we feel that at the time CDG or GCA might grow TOO powerful, we can always BACKSTAB them while they launch their Immortals south. They'll be defenseless. While our troops head south, they take a little "detour" into Elucidia and any other cities they might come across. Then, we and CFC crush GCA. We can even wait till CFC is reeling until we "drop in" to save their butts. 2 civs less...and a weak neighbor.

We must of course weigh our options, which civ or combination of civs is more powerful at the moment? Against who do we have more to gain or lose? Only by answering questions like these first can we choose which course of action to take first.

Before I conclude, I just want to say one more thing. This is a democracy game but it is also a competition. We must take into account our civ's moment of relative power and take advantage of it, if not, we might have well have chosen the US or Germany... winning is all about knowing when to strike and against who. Hesitating on the grounds that this might hurt our rep will be worse if later we are crushed by civ which we had a chance to eliminate beforehand. While it is very important to give the impression that Apolyton is a trustworthy and honest civ, it is much more important to give the impression that we mean business, and that our strategies are the best. After all, all other civs might probably have the same mindset for all we know. I would hate to see this thread, looking back after GCA, CDG and CFC ganged up on us...I repeat, the key to victory is knowing who to attack (or not attack) and when.

Hesitation can cost anyone the game. This plan is not something we must do in the short term. Perhaps it may not even be necessary as events might prove it irrelevant. We must also not let it interfere fatally with our internal building plans (Dominae: the best warmongers have a builder inside )But I feel it must be considered and would appreciate comments from anybody involved in the ISDG.

Thank you all for bothering to read this very long, crazy and paranoid post


-MZ

	26-03-2003 13:31									#2
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While the plans are very well constructed and you explain them well, we definitely need to wait before seeing what we want to do.

Like I said in the chat, remember that just a few days ago, people were predicting how GCA would ally with us to crush CDG, and how annoyed GCA would be with CDG. We are now finding that to not be the case at all...

So before we plan, realize that all 3 of these civilizations currently seem to have contact with each other and they could be plotting against... US!!

	26-03-2003 13:35									#3
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quote: Originally posted by WhiteBandit While the plans are very well constructed and you explain them well, we definitely need to wait before seeing what we want to do. Like I said in the chat, remember that just a few days ago, people were predicting how GCA would ally with us to crush CDG, and how annoyed GCA would be with CDG. We are now finding that to not be the case at all... So before we plan, realize that all 3 of these civilizations currently seem to have contact with each other and they could be plotting against... US!!

As you can see from the post that is my biggest fear...

We of course my sell them the idea that a strong relationship with us is the best and that the civ to fear is CFC because of their greater long-term threat. We on the other hand will lose the Merc advantage eventually making it possible for them to gang up on us.

Let's plot while we're strong
(in theory)

and of course these are just thoughts, not a definitive course of action. Events, geography, and what not will eventually dictate the feasability of it all

	26-03-2003 18:13									#4
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I for one would like to know whats on the eastern pennisula before we make any aggressive plans.

I also dislike plan #3, its probally the best in terms of winning this game, but we have to remember that unlike normal civ3, if our reputation takes a hit in this game it wont be repaired when the next ISDG begins.

	26-03-2003 19:07									#5
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Combo plan :

In the position of GCA, I would not send my army southward before the Apolyton troops are no longer a potential threat, that is when they are down the road to CFC. And of course, we would not let our empire cut off from the army.
It should be adapted when we will have taken out one of the central civs.

Alliance with CFC :
Only valid for two dominating civs since the central position of the targets could make the fight difficult if they coordinate their defence.

	26-03-2003 20:43									#6
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I'll say it once and I'll say it again: backstabbing your neighbor who you're allied with is a reputation hit that you will never recover from. All the other civs will immediately be wary of us, and afraid to get closer to us for fear of us attacking them.

As I've said before, we should simply remain neutral until we pick the side we wish. We can then throw all the justification we want with either side without being known as "backstabbers."

	26-03-2003 21:14									#7
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The comboplan looks nice, and it sounds very very evil ,
but it has some minor ( ) disadvantages, so it probably is not our best bet.
For now I agree with Trip, just stay neutral until the moment is there to take our chance.

It is annoying they are denying us contact with CFC, otherwise we could just move our warrior back to the north. Now we should just try not to get the other teams too mad at us Shouldn't be that easy, as CDG appears to be a bunch of lunatics and GCA a bunch of teenagers
Well, Togas and his men were not hired for easy jobs anyway, so it is no problem.

	26-03-2003 22:03									#8
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My thoughts:

Plan 1: Alliance versus CFC

Neither CDG nor GCA has anything to gain from this alliance with us, other than the assurance that they have a relatively safe northern border. We would have to promise that we would send a bunch of Numidian Mercs down South to help out in the war, which is inefficient at best. The fact is that we're too far away from CFC to be a good (participatory) ally.

And, as mentioned, we have little to gain from this alliance either. The most we could get would be some Corruption-high city-sites.

So, it should be obvious to all parties involved that plan 1 is not really all that advantageous. The only reason we would sign it is if we were planning to employ plan 3. Given this, I believe plan 3 would be transparent if we were to propose plan 1.

Plan 2: Alliance with CFC

This is more like it, but do we really have to take on two opponents at once? I thought we were going to let CDG and GCA come to blows by themselves. If they instead become friends, we could then form an alliance with CFC against one of them, and bully the other into not joining the fight.

Plan 3: Backstab CDG

As mentioned above, this plan would be quite transparent to CDG, rendering it useless. Breaking an alliance is a powerful tool, but one we have to make sure will serve its purpose. We would have to be almost guaranteed to take out CDG if we decided to backstab them. I doubt we can get such a guarantee at this point.


Here are the other plans worth considering:

Plan 4: Ally with GCA against CDG

CDG is our natural target and GCA our natural ally. Why not just do the obvious? Toward the end of the war (and alliance with GCA) we could turn to CFC and ally with them against GCA. Our northernmost position means that we can never get "squeezed" ourselves in this way. From the onset, CDG and GCA, because of their start locations, are the natural targets. Let's target them.

Plan 5: Sit back, chop Jungle

Although are lands do suck, we could get a pretty nice empire going if we stay out of war and focus on Jungle-chopping. Our geographic location and UU make attacking us a difficult endeavour, so we should be quite secure.



Dominae

	26-03-2003 22:04									#9
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We can also use some Bismarkian diplomacy and try and get GCA and CDG to antagonize with CFC and provoke a war, there our "backstabbing" will be legit. Although I find it doubtful that they might expect us (or any other civ) to stay in the sidelines of a continental war.

Balance of power is the key concept. All civs will try to maintain it if one of us grows too poweful.

And again, the disclaimer, this is only something to take into account, not something we should start planning since now.

	26-03-2003 22:18									#10
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quote: Originally posted by Master Zen We can also use some Bismarkian diplomacy and try and get GCA and CDG to antagonize with CFC and provoke a war

Could you explain how we would to this in this game?


Dominae

	26-03-2003 22:34									#11
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quote: Originally posted by Dominae Could you explain how we would to this in this game? Dominae

Hmmm.... not really, we have to look at how the game develops and see if we get the chance to do it. As I have repeteadly mentioned, all this depends on what happens in the game before we decide on a course of action.

Plan 4 is probably what is on everyone's mind, I think what threw us around a bit was GCA's insistence that we do not move our warrior south too which led many of us to believe that perhaps CGA and GCA are closer (diplomacy-wise) than we think.

I for one would LOVE to have GCA as a valuable ally not only against CDG but also against CFC in the future. Continent-wise I think those are the two teams to beat.

Perhaps we could start working towards a "rule the continent together" agreement with GCA...

I also fear India less than I do China or Persia

-MZ

	26-03-2003 22:39									#12
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Plan 6

-Secret alliance with GCA to "rule the continent together"

-GCA agrees to "ally" itself with CDG to take on CFC.

-War starts with us 3 vs CFC. When we move our troops south we take on CDG, GCA takes care of CFC and we split the continent in half.

-Since this was an alliance between GCA and us, the reputation hit will be much less than if we backstabbed alone.



-MZ

EDIT: Dominae already had a plan 5

Last edited by Master Zen on 27-03-2003 at 00:54

	26-03-2003 23:00									#13
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quote: Originally posted by Master Zen Hmmm.... not really, we have to look at how the game develops and see if we get the chance to do it. As I have repeteadly mentioned, all this depends on what happens in the game before we decide on a course of action.

If you're going to use diplomacy to pit one civ against another, you had better plan on it well in advance. We're not going to get very far if we just react to how the other teams feel towards each other.

I agree that at this point in the game it is too early to make big plans. But if we want to sow the seeds of discontent, very soon we're going to have to figure out who we want our friends to be.


Dominae


P.S: I like my plan 5 better.

	26-03-2003 23:13									#14
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Don't discount GCA as a threat. Spotting Lucky a Settler from a hut is a dangerous thing.

	26-03-2003 23:20									#15
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GCA is religious and commercial, are they not?

That means their UU is not the biggest threat. The biggest threat is their buildup. They may not have Immortals or Riders, but they're going to be bigger and badder earlier. That will translate to a bigger threat later on.

As I'm sure people know by now, I'm an opportunist. Bismarck had a goal (uniting Germany under Prussia), and the means to do so (friction with France) and the ability (the best army in the world). Right now we're Prussia without the means or the ability to see our plan through. For that matter, we don't really even have a plan. We have to wait for the diplomatic shape of the world to form. Right now everyone is trying to get the upper hand on everyone else, and get a few trades in. GCA and CDG have capitals about 8 tiles apart. That, if nothing else, is a reason to go to war, much more than a wandering Warrior. We have to give things time, then scheme within the form the world takes. It's too early and we're too weak to shape that form ourselves.

	27-03-2003 00:58									#16
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The problem here Trip, is that as you say, the diplomatic shape of the world is yet to form. Are we going to wait for the other 3 civs to shape it for us? Remember, in diplomacy it is not so much important how strong you are but how strong you APPEAR to be. We should have at least as big a share on how the world is shaped as any other of the 3 civs. Being passive will not get us much respect.

And again, for the umpteenth time, this is NOT A PLAN. It's just an idea I think we should consider lightly until we have more info about our world.

	27-03-2003 02:18									#17
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quote: Originally posted by Trip I'll say it once and I'll say it again: backstabbing your neighbor who you're allied with is a reputation hit that you will never recover from. All the other civs will immediately be wary of us, and afraid to get closer to us for fear of us attacking them.

Absolutely!Trust has proven essential in the other PTW game.

With the scroched earth strategy, war has proven less valuable against humans than AI. Someone will act like a jerk, then we can attack, otherwise our continent will trade for an overwhelming tech lead, and we'll be able to easily defend ourselves.

	27-03-2003 02:33									#18
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Now how about the very REAL possibility that GCA and CDG are trying to gang up on us? CDG is currently pissed at our latest warrior's movements, GCA has not yet allowed us passage officialy through their "claimed" lands.

Why do these two civs not want us to explore south? Because that is where CFC is most likely, they have contact, want a monopoly on trade deals, and might even be plotting to take us out.

That is a very scary, but very real possibilty. We would be VERY foolish to write if off just like that.

3 civs can beat Carthage and they know it.

Now the other deal is that CFC would surely be next on their hit list. If we can convince CFC (once we get contact) that these two civs are plotting against us, we can work up a secret alliance as mentioned in Plan 1. I tend to believe that CFC might be a prime target next as they do not have a 3 defense unit.

Also, consider that CFC might have better land, CDG, starved out of iron will perhaps seek it there.

	27-03-2003 02:59									#19
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backstabbing begets backstabbing...
Secret backstabbing alliances in my experiance generally lead to bloody wars between the ex-allies as they know that they definately can not trust each other.

If we followed plan 6 then I would
a) try and get GCA to visibly initiate the attack on CDG be that in-game or diplomatically.
b) finish off CDG as quickly as possible, preferably before GCA have finished off CFC.
c) attack GCA as soon as we have finished of CDG using their backstabbing of CDG as a reason and saying that we where tricked by them into wiping out CDG (hell we could even leave CDG with their final city when we "finally realise we have been tricked").
d) alliance with any CFC reminants to try and make it look like we are coming to their rescue.

I am sure this plan has many holes but the general gist of it is that if we are evil then we should try and set some other team up to take the rep hit and ally with our (now contained) victims to give us some legitamacy.

	27-03-2003 03:15									#20
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quote: Originally posted by jim_steer backstabbing begets backstabbing... Secret backstabbing alliances in my experiance generally lead to bloody wars between the ex-allies as they know that they definately can not trust each other. If we followed plan 6 then I would a) try and get GCA to visibly initiate the attack on CDG be that in-game or diplomatically. b) finish off CDG as quickly as possible, preferably before GCA have finished off CFC. c) attack GCA as soon as we have finished of CDG using their backstabbing of CDG as a reason and saying that we where tricked by them into wiping out CDG (hell we could even leave CDG with their final city when we "finally realise we have been tricked"). d) alliance with any CFC reminants to try and make it look like we are coming to their rescue. I am sure this plan has many holes but the general gist of it is that if we are evil then we should try and set some other team up to take the rep hit and ally with our (now contained) victims to give us some legitamacy.

Getting GCA to attack CDG is iffy at best. Especially once CDG gets Immortals, GCA will probably laugh at that idea. My guess would be that any conflict between CDG and GCA would be initiated by CDG with Immortals. Though I could be wrong, so we need to talk with GCA and let the situation progress to see where everyone stands.

	27-03-2003 03:16									#21
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quote: Originally posted by Master Zen The problem here Trip, is that as you say, the diplomatic shape of the world is yet to form. Are we going to wait for the other 3 civs to shape it for us? Remember, in diplomacy it is not so much important how strong you are but how strong you APPEAR to be. We should have at least as big a share on how the world is shaped as any other of the 3 civs. Being passive will not get us much respect.

So you suggest we backstab our neighbors in order to "shape the diplomatic world?"

quote: And again, for the umpteenth time, this is NOT A PLAN. It's just an idea I think we should consider lightly until we have more info about our world.

A plan, an idea, a course of action, whatever it is, I'm addressing the faults I see in it.

	27-03-2003 03:17									#22
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That's why a secret alliance between CFC and us against GCA and CDG (or whatever 2 vs 2 combo) will lessen the reputation hit.

Plus, we can re-work the "evil secret alliance" to look like a mutual defense pact post-war

	27-03-2003 03:32									#23
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quote: Originally posted by Trip So you suggest we backstab our neighbors in order to "shape the diplomatic world?"

Backstabbing...such an ugly word . Perhaps we can call it "shifting alliances to suit our national
interests". That sounds much better

quote: A plan, an idea, a course of action, whatever it is, I'm addressing the faults I see in it.

That's why I posted it, so people can criticize it. Feedback is the most welcome thing in the world. The last thing we want to do is to rush into something that is not perfectly thought out.

	27-03-2003 03:39									#24
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When I say CDG initiate combat I just meant that they could fire the symbolic first shot of the backstab and then turn to our forces (who are conveniently travelling through CDG territory to attack CFC as per the original alliance) to wipe CDG out while they dealt with CFC.
I meant for us to do all of the fighting against CDG but try and paint a picture where we can blame GCA for our backstabbing of CDG and use it as an excuse to kill off GCA.

The plan was mainly meant to ilustrate that we should try and pin the rep hit on someone else (mainly cos I think this will be every other teams strategy).

	27-03-2003 03:45									#25
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quote: Originally posted by Master Zen Backstabbing...such an ugly word . Perhaps we can call it "shifting alliances to suit our national interests". That sounds much better

The amount of work it would take just to make it appear as though we were acting justly (even though other teams will still be skeptical of us) is astronomical.

quote: That's why I posted it, so people can criticize it. Feedback is the most welcome thing in the world. The last thing we want to do is to rush into something that is not perfectly thought out.

Well when we comment on it you keep exclaming "it's not a plan it's not a plan!" What do you want us to say?

	27-03-2003 14:28									#26
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Evil plans are always worth considering....

	27-03-2003 14:41									#27
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quote: Originally posted by redstar1 Evil plans are always worth considering....

Especially there es sufficient evidence to show that perhaps our "neighbours" are plotting some evil plans of their own...

	27-03-2003 15:52									#28
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All plans not involving free tech/money/slave girls for the Apolyton team, can be construed as evil.

	27-03-2003 20:12									#29
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Well, we should save the alliance scheming for when we have a military.

Right now we don't.

	27-03-2003 22:35									#30
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Hitler was plotting world domination while he was still in jail, and he almost succeeded. I am plotting world domination and I haven't even finished college.

It does not hurt to plan beforehand, gives more time to correct mistakes along the way