30-03-2003 07:59									#1
	Immortal Beloved and Murphy's Law Tired of ads?

OK - the plan is coming together, pretty much along the lines as planned.

But - Murphy is alive and well, so we should probably think about what can go wrong, and what we do if it does. Contingency planning 101.

I can think of a couple of doomsday scenarios, and we should have exit strategies.

#1. GS knows we are coming.

I sort of doubt it - but we need to monitor any signs that might indicate they know it. The big one would be the relative military strengths. But if they do know, and are preparing, what would it look like.

Spearmen in key defensive positions. Chariots to wear down our immortals, swordsmen to to serious damage. Would they let us take a couple of cities to catch us in the flats with chariots? Or wait until we move next to a major city and launch a serious counterattack.

The big question - if we get an early (ie the operation is under way and we are at war with GS) sign that they know we are coming - do we halt, pull back and try and make peace - or do we push on?

#2 GoW and NeuD use the opportunity to rush us in the north.

I also think this is unlikely - it would not gain much for them - could be costly - and simply weakens or wipes out the last place civ - that's us. Would be pretty stupid on their part - but then NeuD's single-mindedness may lead them to it.

I guess in this case - we see how much they have invaded with. They can ferry units across pretty quickly up north. A two-front war would be gruesome, so I think we would need to cut and run from the southern campaign, and protect North Estonia at all costs.

(And then commit the rest of the game to making sure NeuD and GoW do not win. )

#3 The nightmare scenario - combination of #1 and #2.

Which is probably more likely than #2, because if if the two hyenas were going to stab us in the back, I'm sure they would enlist GS' help. This would be a desperate situation. Make as many Immortals as we can before the iron source is cut off - and then rush a harbor and beg for iron from RP or Lego - who would probably provide it to make sure we are around as a counter-balance.

#4 The best-case abort. We find out before the operation goes that GS knows about it

- but neither of us have said anything. Do we call it a day - put on the innocent act, and try and recruit their help for a return to the continent. I think RP, for all their feigned unity, would not mind an ally willing to come in from the north when the big continental war breaks out.


A couple of key considerations here are:

Ghengis does not really like GS. They are the strat forum gang, and I think he would like to see them brought down a notch.

I think Ghengis likes the plan we have in the works.

NeuD - bit of a blackhole diplomatically. I still have not had a response to my last letter. They are hard to read.

GoW has stuck pretty much to its word - even if they do drive hard bargains.

Both NeuD and GoW have to realize that in the long run, it would be better to have us, rather than GS, left standing on Estonia. They are GS - the Apolyton All-stars; we are the Vox nobodies.

Ghengis explained his long-term goals which he shared with NeuD and has their agreement on. It goes like this - GoW and Vox take out GS. GoW and NeuD and Vox take out RP. Then we go after Lego. After that ??? he didn't say.

I say we do GS first - RP because we agreed to it - then we will see.

And the final consideration - they may not trust us. Both are pissed that we built the city, after the big 4 civ chat - where they intepreted it that we would not. And we did in Lux. So - we may have to see this from their point of view.

Comments? Thoughts?

	30-03-2003 11:34									#2
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Although ND talks big and flexs their muscles, I don't think they are interested in anything other than Bob right now. There is still territory there for them. I also doubt GoW would attack us. They know they are in no position to win this game without help and that GS is one of their biggest obstacles to winning. Who better to get help from them another team that also know they need help to win.

That leaves #1 and #4. Both require GS knowing about it. The million dollar question is, how would we know they know? Although I hate to give money to GS, if we don't do something about that new tech deal they are offering they will get suspicious of our partnership.

	30-03-2003 18:18									#3
	Increase the size of your Attachments

Hmmm .. I think the way we get around that is have Jon say soon as we are through Monarchy - which is 31 turns at 100% if we start now. Say 18 turns to go - we will start the cash flowing to them.But they asked 20 gpt - we could not sustain that cash flow. So - tell them 12 gpt start in turn 18, along with monarchy.

And we have to make it clear to them that we are going back to the continent.

	30-03-2003 18:24									#4
	Avatar Enlargement: We've got the solution

#5 GS sees us moving units into position on the east coast.

We can plan this carefully - but there are three ways they might find out.

i) a GS galley comes up the east coast.
ii) they move their observation warriors one tile - see what they can see - and re-play the turn. Not entirely ethical, but possible.
iii) they have a chariot just out of our sight range. They use one movement point to move him closer to see what they can see - then move him back out. When our turn rolls around - we would not notice anything. They may have been doing this for awhile now.

So - i) aside - that would be a matter of chance - we should make sure our east coast landing plans and subsequent moves take into consideration GS' 'expanded' line of sight from ii) and iii).

	31-03-2003 21:08									#5
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we must maintain secracy. I am willing to move the gathering point northward if we have to.

	01-04-2003 00:37									#6
	Put an end to popups!

most of this is speculation, but the only way i see GS know is that one of our partners tells them and double crosses us. #i is a risk we should be willing to take and can be countered with we are using that area as our staging area for the conquest of Bob, we do not want the Bobians seeing the full of our force. #ii. why would they suspect us of attacking them unless they are incredibly paranoid. we are the little fries of the game

	01-04-2003 00:53									#7
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MJ, the gathering point is not a problem. If the GS warrior on the mountain south of Elipolis moved to see us he would take two turns to get next to us to see the units and we would see him. Beta is speculating that GS could have chariots in the grassland SE of Dissidentville in the break between the mountain chains. The chariots could move up and back in one turn. If they did this, they could see any units at point X.

	01-04-2003 03:07									#8
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yes I see.