06-04-2003 19:22									#1
	when are we going to move into Republic? Avatar Enlargement: We've got the solution

Have been talking with some of the team in the chat room and wondering when we are planning to move into Republic.

The general feeling seems to be "soon after" we get the Pyramids - however, there doesn't seem to be a consensus as to exactly when to make the move - and the Pyramids will be done in 4 turns.

I favor going as early as possible. Originally I thought that we should wait until the Forkmouth barracks is complete in 10 turns, but I would hope that we can speed that up perhaps.

Overall, I favor going going for republic anywhere from 4 to 10 turns from now - the sooner the better.

Last edited by Sharpe on 06-04-2003 at 19:44

	07-04-2003 09:31									#2
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I was thinking longer - maybe 20 or so turns from now. That'll allow some pop rushes.

As our cities and military stand now, I don't think we have much to gain from Republic; we spend 4 or so turns in anarchy, only to spend the commerce we get from the change on our then-costly army. The only gain, IMO, is some shields in the northern hill-using cities; and those will come at the cost of cheap poprushes that essentially make free shields in the south.

	07-04-2003 13:00									#3
	Re: when are we going to move into Republic? Support Apolyton, buy Civilization III: Complete

quote: Originally posted by Sharpe Have been talking with some of the team in the chat room and wondering when we are planning to move into Republic.

I think the timing should be the turn after we discover Theo., which is ~ 16-17 turns away. This would allow us to trade Theo. for other techs and money, while allowing us to poprush some temples in the south until then.

	07-04-2003 16:14									#4
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Tibi, actually Theology is about 14 turns away due to the library in Legopolis.

I was chatting with Vondrack about this last night in the chat and he favors doing it in 18 turns after the Logville temple poprush. I have found in chats with others on the team that they have favored a much earlier move - almost immediately after Pyramids. Personally I favor something in between (though admittedly getting Theology done has some merit).

Vondrack suggested that we do some scenario analyses of the situation. I highly agree with that especially as we are uncertain as to the effects that Republic will change.

For instance, we know that Panama will gain 3 shields/turn and Jackson 2 shields/turn. But as Radek noted last night that will take reduce the construction of of a marketplace in those cities by 1 or 2 turns.

We also know that we will gain +1 commerce / square used. Btw, does that include the city square as well? Never paid that much attention to that in my games. If so then my calculations last night were a bit understated, Radek, as I only took the population amount to add commerce when of course there is the city square as well.

If the city square doesn't gain +1 commerce we would gain 30 commerce before corruption from the +1 commerce factor plus any gains in reduced corruption minus any additional corruption from the +1 commerce factor.

If the city square does gain +1 commerce, we would add 40 commerce before corruption instead (plus the corruption gains minus the corruption losses etc.)

Admittedly most of the added commerce south of Farmerville would be lost to corruption.

However, the real mystery would be the reduction in corruption that we would gain from going to Republic. I hope that we might be able to set up a scenario to test that perhaps by updating our simulator.

Admittedly there are downsides to going to Republic - goldrush instead of poprush, paying for military units (currently 27 plus the next 4 planned plus the temp worker in Logville), and the unhappiness factor due to the loss of using Military police. And the need to eventually start massive terraforming to mine the hills and mountains and irrigate the grasslands.

Last edited by Sharpe on 07-04-2003 at 16:24

	07-04-2003 16:35									#5
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I know that Theo. is closer, I said 16-17 turns to give time to the poprushes.

I have an updated scenario, with both Legos Major and Minor included (even Mistery Island), but I'm having difficulties modelling terrain under cut forrests and such (for ex, you can't put a "game" bonus resource on a grassland). Nevertheless, I will try to come up with a usable scenario, to test the exact benefits of the change to Republic.

I personally would wait until we do at least some poprushes, even if not all of them. We can afford to gold-rush some improvements, but not all of them (in the south, I mean). Also waiting for a marketplace and a temple in Legopolis would be nice.

I'd say that 10 turns min, and 20 turns max for the switch. In the meantime, running the tests to see which is better: the earlier, then goldrushes or the later, after the poprushes.

	07-04-2003 23:44									#6
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re: the scenario

Want to send the scenario file to me and see if I can do anything with it? Two heads are better than one ...

	08-04-2003 01:45									#7
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17 turns is enough to get the Karina temple poprush, which is one of the more important ones IMO. But a turn or two extra is enough to poprush the temple in Logville as well, so I'd like ~20 turns from now to be the goal.

On the scenario: I had one, but it was wiped out a few days ago when I was trying to make a dual 1.21 installation.

To fix the game on grass problem, just enable custom rules, go to the terrain menu, and enable game on grasslands. Problem solved.

	08-04-2003 01:57									#8
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OK, I have spent some time sorting thoughts out... let's try it this way:

1) Food, Shields, Gold

Under despotism, 1 pop point (considering the effect of the Pyramids, that can easily be approximated as 10 accumulated food) may be turned into 20 shields. That gives the ratio of 1 food ~ 2 shields (and food is never affected by corruption/waste! that is very important as far as our southern cities go). Under republic, one shield may be rushed by spending 4 gold... 1 shield ~ 4 gold.

Combined, 1 food in despotism ~ 8 gold in republic, or 1 pop point ~ 10 food ~ 80 gold as far as rushing is concerned.

2) Republic - effect on commerce

Under republic, every tile producing at least one commerce produces one more commerce. The total raw increase in commerce output may thus be approximated as (total_pop_points + number_of_cities) (as every city works pop tiles + its city tile; to simplify things, let's assume every tile generates at least 1 commerce). At the moment, we have 30 pop points and 10 cities. Over the next 15-20 turns, we are likely to grow to about 5 pop points per city (on average) and about 12-14 cities. That gives us a theoretical increase of about 40 (now) to 85 (after 15-20 turns) extra commerce per turn.

Under republic, cities support no "free" units. Every unit costs 1 gold per turn. Currently, we have 27 units and we plan to add a couple of more. That would use about 30 gold per turn under republic (on average).

Combined, we get a gross increase in commerce (prior to applying corruption) of about 10-55 gold per turn (that's actually quite overestimated, as most extra commerce will be added in the corrupted southern cities...).

3) Goals to reach

I believe that everybody will agree we have two primary goals now:

a) to build the basic infrastructure (Temple, Library, Marketplace) in our core cities - to make the best use of their economic potential.
b) to build Temples in our corrupted cities - to prepare for the unhappiness problems under the republic (no MP) and to expand the radii of our corrupted cities.

I believe that properly planning our transition to republic actually involves primarily considering the temple builds in our corrupted cities.

There are at least 5 temples of this kind to be built: Farmerville, Forkmouth, Karina, Zargonia, Logville. Considering 2-pop rushes (the worst case scenario), we would need 40*4=160 gold per temple to gold-rush with the same effect. That is 800 gold altogether.

Considering the abovementioned increase of 50-60 gpt (max! that's greatly exaggerated actually...), this gives us at least 16 turns of "wasted" extra republican commerce to achieve the same as if pop-rushing under despotism. And I am heavily distorting figures in favour of the republic... as +55 commerce is not what we would get now or on average, but after about 15-20 turns. This basically means that if we stay in despotism up to ~16t longer in order to arrange the poprushes, we will still end up with the same net output over that period of time.

This leads me to believe that we shall actually find out the quickest way to pop-rush the temples in question and adjust our transition to republic accordingly.

Karina: 15 shields already built, 10 shields will be gained by chopping the forest (in 1+5 turns); add 15 more "hard earned" shields (15 turns @ 1spt) and use 1-pop rush. 16 turns

Zargonia: 10 shields already built, 10 shields will be added by the chop just finished; add 20 more "hard earned" shields (10 turns @ 2spt) and use 1-pop rush; 11 turns

Logville: 3 shields already built, 7 more (7 turns @ 1spt) to build a worker; then 10 "hard earned" shields (10 turns @ 1spt), 10 shields from a chop done by that worker (in 1+5 turns, will manage to build one road in 1+2 turns). Add worker back to city -> make it pop 4 -> use 2-pop rush. 18 turns

Farmerville: 7 shields already built, 23 more (8 turns at 3spt) to finish settler; then less than 10 turns to gather 20 "hard earned" shields and use 2-pop rush; less than 18 turns

Forkmouth: 14 shields already built, 6 more (2 turns @ 3spt) to add the hard way, then use 1-pop rush to finish barracks; then 40 shields "the hard way" (5 turns @ 2spt, 10 turns @ 3spt), then use another 1-pop rush to finish the temple; 19 turns

Note: I would actually revert the order - first build the temple (9 more turns @ 3spt, then 1-pop rush), only then the barracks, gold-rushing their missing bit under republic. But that's just me...

Note #2: may possibly be speeded up by chopping the game forest

I would actually utilize 1-pop rushing even in Dye Fields and Red Bricks, but that will not affect the times, I think.

So, this approximation shows that it will take us 19 turns at most (18 if reverting the build order in Forkmouth) to get all the temples built. As that is very close to those 16 turns determined as the "breaking point" for the pop/gold rushes, I believe we can say that following the abovementioned temple building plan should actually be our roadmap to republic.

19 turns from now max.

4) Republic - effect on food & shield output

I believe it is perfectly safe to neglect the effect on food production - we have only one tile that will improve its food output under republic (the floodplains in Farmerville). EDIT: Wrong. Cattle & wheat tiles will gain +1 food, too... but I still insist that the food output increase will be - due to the Pyramids - negligible.

The shield output would increase - under Republic - by 2-3 spt in Legopolis, by 2 spt in Jackson, and by 3 spt in Panama. Considering we would still not switch earlier than in 3 turns (because of the Pyramids), that would be about 15 turns x 7 shields = 105 shields. This may look like a big deal, but actually, it is not quite possible to "transfer" this extra production to the corrupted cities, helping to speed up the builds there... plus, until we build temples in these 3 cities, we would have to use the luxury slider to keep the pop content there, effectively wasting part of the shields saving...

All this said, I suggest we stay in despotism for ~18-19 more turns (that is about ~15 turns after the Pyramids are finished). Let's get all those temples built and switch only then. The net result will be, I am quite sure, even better than if we rush into Republic right after finishing the Pyramids. Also, considering the fact that there is a major war to break out between Voxes+GoW and GS (GoW and GS being one of the top competitors for Lego as far economy is concerned), we should be able keep pace economy-wise with the rest of the world even under despotism, while making the most efficient use of our cheap and fast pop-production.

Few more remarks:

- if you think "why is it so important to build all those temples?"... the corrupted cities will need like 20+ turns to build a temple... they will grow to pop 5+ during that time - that will be too much to keep the population happy. We could use the luxury slider (or entertainers) - but then we'd be actually wasting part of the extra commerce republic brings...

- it is not important to drain the pop while building the temples... for obvious reasons.

- the very fact of being in despotism is not "bad" by itself. The net output over a given number of turns is what matters.

- even if other teams switch their governments to more advanced types (Monarchy, Republic), they may (and most probably will) still not match our output under despotism. What really matters is whether our total output is higher than theirs. If it is, then it does not matter which kind of gov we use, as long as we know it is efficient to stay in despotism.

- if you think "he considered five 2-pop rushes to calculate the equivalent cost of gold-rushes, but then used two 2-pop rushes and three 1-pop rushes" - keep in mind that we will most probably be able to do some more pop rushing in Red Bricks, Dye Fields, and quite possibly even in Sharpehaven (if adding a worker to reach pop 4 in time). Also, if we consider the actual "cash flow" due to the improved commerce under republic, we will definitiely not get +55*16=+880 gold, but much more likely something like +(10+55)/2*16=+520 gold, which roughly equals about 7 pop point used for rushing.... which is what I actually used.

- another added benefit is that we will have some time to use the high shield output of our core cities (running at pop 6-7, maybe even 8) to build the much needed infrastructure with no need to waste money through the luxury slider (thanks to the MP).

OK, that's it. I am done.

Comment, everybody. Let's discuss this in detail and then - if we find no apparent consensus - arrange a poll.

Last edited by vondrack on 08-04-2003 at 02:14

	08-04-2003 02:42									#9
	Avatar Enlargement: We've got the solution

Forkmouth could do a 1-pop rush on both the temple and barracks (with temple first, of course) all within 15 turns, after which it would churn out units.

Dye Fields could poprush a temple in 18 turns, building two warriors (rather than the currently planned solo warrior) before then. This would cost us Jason, but only after he'd connected Dye Fields and fully improved two dye tiles, and more workers will be produced in Jackson, remember.

And Sharpehaven could 2-poprush a temple in 16 turns without any worker integrations, so long as Frank connects it and mines the bonus grass.

Just an extra 4 or 5 turns after completing Theo will allow us to turn lots of food into shields, at the price of only temporary unhappiness. I give the 18-19 turn timetable a big MB Stamp of Approval