10-04-2003 15:04									#1
	The Fall of Kirkuk Got spare money?

Kurdish peshmerga forces have "taken" Kirkuk.

Not sure yet what that means. There is likely to be some ongoing resistance, as Kirkuk has been subject to "Arabization" under Saddam's regime: Kurds driven out, property ownership documents destroyed, property given to Arab settlers. There will be disputes, possibly bloody ones, about who now owns what.

And the Turks will be nervous. They've been supporting the Turcoman minority in the region. They wanted the Kurds to stay out of Kirkuk and Mosul.

Sorting out this mess will not be easy, but at least the Kurds can begin to reclaim their city.

But will they be allowed to keep it?

	10-04-2003 16:42									#2
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quote: Originally posted by Jack the Bodiless Kurdish peshmerga forces have "taken" Kirkuk. Not sure yet what that means. There is likely to be some ongoing resistance, as Kirkuk has been subject to "Arabization" under Saddam's regime: Kurds driven out, property ownership documents destroyed, property given to Arab settlers. There will be disputes, possibly bloody ones, about who now owns what. And the Turks will be nervous. They've been supporting the Turcoman minority in the region. They wanted the Kurds to stay out of Kirkuk and Mosul. Sorting out this mess will not be easy, but at least the Kurds can begin to reclaim their city. But will they be allowed to keep it?

That is difference to sort out, oh dear!

	10-04-2003 16:47									#3
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The Turks won't want the Kurds to have controls over the cities. The new government, whatever it is, probably don't want it either.

	10-04-2003 17:30									#4
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So now it's the Kurds turn to pull down a statue...at least this time they might be allowed to get on with it by themselves, even if it will take a while before it topples.

Which has got me wondering...doesn't anyone in Iraq have access to some heavy machinery? Farming? Construction? It would make this statue toppling a lot faster. At this rate they'll still be pushing them over this time next year!

	11-04-2003 13:34									#5
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Update: now they have Mosul too.

Which means that they have Iraqui Kurdistan, whether the Turks like it or not.

	11-04-2003 13:50									#6
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Apparently they're going to leave Kirkuk...

	11-04-2003 14:46									#7
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quote: Originally posted by Jack the Bodiless Which means that they have Iraqui Kurdistan, whether the Turks like it or not.

The Turks have a big army, the Kurds don't.

	11-04-2003 14:54									#8
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On the surface they have agred to pull out of Kirkuk but any attempt to put together a group of local leaders to run the area will have to include a strong Kurdish element.

The Turks have only themselves to blame. If they had allowed US troops through then it would have been US troops occupying these cities and the Peshmerga would have stayed in the background. As it is the Kurds have had a bigger role than would have otherwise been the case, and presumably a bigger influence on what happens next.

	11-04-2003 15:06									#9
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The Peshmerga have apparently agreed to hand over control, but obviously the predominantly Kurdish population is still there (and a lot of the Arab immigrants have fled). So the city is "Kurdish".

And the US is already talking about inviting Peshmerga forces back, as policemen "under US control".

Expect a lot of face-saving and cosmetic changes. In every respect that really matters, Kirkuk and Mosul are Kurdish, and will remain so, unless there's either a new Iraqui dictatorship (or an anti-Kurd "democratic" regime, like Turkey) or a Turkish invasion.

	11-04-2003 16:11									#10
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And this wasn't an obvious outcome because...?

This would have happened if the 4th div had been allowed through...I probably should have used some sort of "cynic" smiley on my last post. All this stuff is simply to hold off Turkey, but in the end there will be a Kurdistan, albeit as a part of an Iraqi union (if the whole thing doesn't fall apart before then that is). What happens then...?

Well....

	11-04-2003 16:12									#11
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To put it quite blantly, the Turks will massacre the Kurds. Again.

	11-04-2003 16:16									#12
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Iraqi Kurds are more than 4 million

Turkey Kurds are more than 10 million

Turkey simply will do whatever it can to stop a kurdish state from being formed. And since it already has the weapons and noone is going to stop her it will do just that.

Now if the geostrategic importance of Turkey has fallen so much vis a vis the US that thelatter will support the Kurds, I find it a very remote possibility.

The best Kurds can hope for (for which I express my wholeheart solidarity) is a limited autonomy inside Iraq.

	11-04-2003 16:23									#13
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of course they can choose not to "learn"...

others have done it with good results.


and I bet they will never learn untill they're free

20 million people is a lot of crowd.

	11-04-2003 18:05									#14
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This will be a mess that will take years to sort out. The best thing to do is to let the Greeks supervise.

	11-04-2003 18:15									#15
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The Kurds won't be getting their own state here. If they did, we could simply allow the Turks to come in. It's in our best interest to preserve the territorial integrity of Iraq.

	11-04-2003 18:24									#16
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What is in your best interest is not what interests the Kurds.

They will have it no other way than self governance be that inside Iraq or as whatever else they can get.

If they choose to go all the way, they will be massacred (luckily you can't genocide dozens of millions of people so Turkey cannot make theproblem dissapear).


If they opt for that route, Turkey will invade, you will be in a jam since any bloodletting will fall on you. Not to speak about the stability of the region.


The most likely scenario is that kurds will get autonomy. That by itself is a huge step in their agonizing struggle to eventually get a state of their own, and their aspirations of course for the liberation of all their peoples in Turkey as well as Iraq.

	11-04-2003 18:26									#17
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Lincoln, we have come close to war with Turkey for our support of the Kurds... (as well as for other matters)

	11-04-2003 18:31									#18
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Fortunately Paiktis, the Kurdish leaders appear to be moderate enough in this instance to not try for anything dumb. They would not have the ability to resist a Turkish invasion, and so far it seems the Kurds will not try to bring it about. There isn't going to be any autonomy, what the Kurds can have is citizenship in a democratic Iraq; they will go for that rather than do something stupid that will only result in a massacre at the hands of the Turks.

	11-04-2003 18:35									#19
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I agree that the Kurds aren't likely to get more than their own region within Iraq for the foreseeable future.

But I think that region will now include Kirkuk and Mosul, making it far more viable than "Iraqui Kurdistan" has been up to now. Turkey won't like that, but if Iraq is to be a democracy and that's what the majority populations of those cities want...

...Then Turkey might invade. It won't be a matter of the US "letting" them in. In fact, the US had better oppose such an invasion, or there will be big long-term repercussions. The US cannot be seen to condone this! And it doesn't need Turkey as an ally anymore.

Even if the Kurds can't reach an agreement with the rest of Iraq, and a fully independent Kurdish state results: why is it in the interests of the US to see that state invaded by an external enemy?

	11-04-2003 18:52									#20
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It isn't. And the fact that the geostrategic importance of Turkey has been lessened considerably since its Insirlik base to impose the no fly zone in Iraq is no longer needed by the US makes this an interesting divelopement indeed.

I highly doubt the Kurds will settle for a "citizenship". Most likely they won't accept anything less than autonomy. Which is good for the US given that they support you 100%. The more power they have, the more support they are going to be able to deliver to you.

Interesting divelopments indeed.

	11-04-2003 18:54									#21
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BTW and what concers the "economic viability" of an autonomous Kurdistan they don;t really need any help given their oil although I'm sure we can manage a massive financial help if they need it as well.

	11-04-2003 18:57									#22
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Of course, Turkey can invade at any time as long as it judges that its interests are at stake.

Given the widely recognized inexperience of their new moderately islamic government it can't be ruled out completely.

	11-04-2003 19:20									#23
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I expect Kurdish Iraq, independent or not, will soon be wealthier than Turkey. And I expect they'll use some of that wealth to buy arms.

Turkey won't like that, of course. But the Kurds might gamble on secretly buying enough arms to halt a Turkish invasion before they find out, or arranging one massive purchase to arm themselves before Turkey can mobilize.

Interesting times, indeed.

	11-04-2003 19:46									#24
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quote: Originally posted by Jack the Bodiless I expect Kurdish Iraq, independent or not, will soon be wealthier than Turkey. And I expect they'll use some of that wealth to buy arms.

Highly unlikely. The oil money will go to the new government for the most part, if not all of it.

	11-04-2003 19:49									#25
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If the Kurds behave themselves and follow US policy in the region then how long before Turkey gets added to the "axis of evil"?

	11-04-2003 19:52									#26
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UR: If the Kurds aren't at least quasi-autonomous, yes. But then there would be no Turkish threat anyhow: they can't get away with invading "new Iraq" rather than just "Kurdistan".

There's still a "worst-case" scenario, though. A new Iraq wants to include the Kurds and take the oil revenues, the Kurds don't accept, civil war breaks out, and New Iraq invites Turkey to assist.

	11-04-2003 19:58									#27
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Nah, I doubt New Irak itself will have this much amount of autonomy