11-04-2003 18:19									#1
	After Iraq, will the post-war fallout catch up with Bush? Increase the size of your Attachments

Bush Sr. got voted out in 1992 despite having a high approval rating during and after the first Gulf War. And Bush Sr. had a higher approval rating than Bush Jr. IMO, the Democrats can only lose the election by putting up some other stiff.

Just to put things in perspective, here's a nice Doonesbury piece related to this discussion.

So, let's try to have a civilized discussion about whether or not Bush will get re-elected. Will the post-war fallout affect Dubya like it did his father?

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	11-04-2003 18:38									#2
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Hell , no, Sava.

His dad bowed to U.N. pressure.
We now have seen that half the U.N. are terrorist-backers.

So, yes. Look for re-election.

	11-04-2003 19:37									#3
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I believe he will be re-elected. The economy looks as if it is on a major rebound if so then there will be little or no issues for the democrats to attack with. Also he has the war on terror to keep his approval rating up and we are almost assuredly going to deploy against another nation...possibly Syria...so he will have that as well.

	11-04-2003 19:41									#4
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Its the economy, stupid!

Not you personally

If the voters are happy that they have money to spend and a good prospect of jobs then they will vote for the current administration. If not then they will give the other lot a try.

I am not an american but it is more or less the same in any western democracy.

	11-04-2003 19:43									#5
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'Its the economy, stupid!'

yeah, gotta agree with this. we can all suck each other off over the war - weeee it was great!!!

but money is everything. it DOES buy health, happiness and love! so bush better get things back on track to better his chances at another 4.

of course... the dem's dont really have anyone worth voting for right now. that in itself might keep bush around. a sad way to stay - but i'm sure he would take it!

	11-04-2003 19:50									#6
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At some point, Bush will need to seek advice on domestic issues, just as he's let the experts advise on foreign activity. IE. Tommy Franks, Colin Powell, etc.

	11-04-2003 19:56									#7
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quote: Originally posted by SlowwHand We now have seen that half the U.N. are terrorist-backers.

Saudi Arabia, Parkistan, Israel, and the US, just for starters.

quote: Originally posted by SlowwHand So, yes. Look for re-election.

Slowwhand got his fingers jammed in his ears permanently, saying, "Nayh, nayh, I don't hear you."

	11-04-2003 20:01									#8
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Post war fallout didn't knock Bush out in 1992, it was a badly run campaign (remember that Lee Atwater passed away in the summer of '92) and his broken "Read my lips: No New Taxes" pledge.

	11-04-2003 20:01									#9
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quote: Originally posted by SlowwHand Hell , no, Sava. His dad bowed to U.N. pressure. We now have seen that half the U.N. are terrorist-backers. So, yes. Look for re-election.

In 1991 everyone thought the UN was great. Because of them we had everyone on the planet except Yemen behind us, a true coalition of the willing. It wasn't until Bush (not Clinton, BUSH) took us on a tour of Somalia that "F*** the UN!" became a popular sentiment.

	11-04-2003 21:44									#10
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quote: Originally posted by SlowwHand Look for re-election.

In order to be re-elected, one must be elected in the first place.

	11-04-2003 21:54									#11
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quote: Originally posted by chegitz guevara In order to be re-elected, one must be elected in the first place.

Hey, I was going to say that. It's true though.

I won't be suprised if the Democrats say "It's STILL the economy, Stupid."

	11-04-2003 22:07									#12
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i think a lot of the US likes the pro active president that bush is. even the part that doesn't like what he's doing. he is at the very least actively attempting to lead the nation. lots of politicians now often try to bandwagon and poll watch their way to re election so much so that the only pt of being president becomes to stay president.

ie. clinton.

	11-04-2003 22:42									#13
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I tend to agree with My Wife Hates Civ, although JohnT, your point is well-taken. Is there anything the Democrats could or will use against Bush? I'm thinking they will focus on the economy and education. "No Children Left Behind"... perhaps they might show how his policy has worsened the public education system.

	11-04-2003 22:58									#14
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Conservatives like to forget that Clinton was consistently a popular president. Bush can't claim that. Unemployment stil hovers near 6%, the economy had zero growth last quarter and shows little sign of getting better. Bush has a year to turn the economy around.

	11-04-2003 23:33									#15
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quote: Originally posted by chegitz guevara Conservatives like to forget that Clinton was consistently a popular president. Bush can't claim that. Unemployment stil hovers near 6%, the economy had zero growth last quarter and shows little sign of getting better. Bush has a year to turn the economy around.

For all his faults Clinton was a very good president and did hold high approval ratings however they were not as high as Bush enjoys now. Bush has broken records for highest approval ratings so I'm not sure what your are refering to that Bush can't claim that. Unemployment is a result of the economy not one man...the economy is a complex and very fragile system and he is doing as much as he can to recover from two major trajedies: 9/11 and the Corporate scandals. I think that as long as Bush makes improvements (however small) and the economy does not fall further back he will be re-elected.

	11-04-2003 23:39									#16
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quote: Originally posted by Wtiberon For all his faults Clinton was a very good president and did hold high approval ratings however they were not as high as Bush enjoys now. Bush has broken records for highest approval ratings so I'm not sure what your are refering to that Bush can't claim that. Unemployment is a result of the economy not one man...the economy is a complex and very fragile system and he is doing as much as he can to recover from two major trajedies: 9/11 and the Corporate scandals. I think that as long as Bush makes improvements (however small) and the economy does not fall further back he will be re-elected.

Before 9/11, Bush barely managed to hold 50% approval. Prior to this war, his popularity was slipping back down towards that level. Clinton was always popular, even during that stupid Lewinsky scandal.

Now, the fact that the economy is beyond the control of anyone man doesn't mean that one man can't have a big impact on it. His war posturing hurt the economy. His tax cuts are targetted towards people who don't need it, while middle- and low-income people aren't seeing them. Social spending is being paired to the bone, which reduces the spending power of low income people even further.

This presidency has simply been one economic mess-up after another.

	11-04-2003 23:47									#17
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I agree with che.

In a years time, the people of Iraq will have almost universal health care and huge reconstruction effort underway for schools and hospitals.

In the meantime, states like mine are told to suck it up in the face of record deficits and human service cutbacks. All while he keeps pushing for dividend tax cuts and other nonsense. If things dont shape up soon, Ill think he'll be in for a rude awakening in 04.

	12-04-2003 00:07									#18
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quote: Originally posted by chegitz guevara Before 9/11, Bush barely managed to hold 50% approval. Prior to this war, his popularity was slipping back down towards that level. Clinton was always popular, even during that stupid Lewinsky scandal. Now, the fact that the economy is beyond the control of anyone man doesn't mean that one man can't have a big impact on it. His war posturing hurt the economy. His tax cuts are targetted towards people who don't need it, while middle- and low-income people aren't seeing them. Social spending is being paired to the bone, which reduces the spending power of low income people even further. This presidency has simply been one economic mess-up after another.

Sorry bud but you make no sense...Clinton was plagued by low approval ratings early in his presidency it wasn't until later in his term that he began to enjoy higher marks...it took Bush a year to gain high marks so once again you are basing your argument on half assed information.

Here let me help you out:
http://pro.harvard.edu/papers/047/047002NewmanBria.pdf

Read this get a little smarter and then we'll talk

edit: BTW have you read his tax proposal? I doubt it but its not aimed at those that don't need it its aim is to end some retarded taxes that have existed for many years such as the double taxation of stocks. Don't you think that if it became cheaper to buy stocks that more people would by them? Stop ranting the liberal rhetoric and please do some research.

	12-04-2003 00:11									#19
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"His tax cuts are targetted towards people who don't need it, while middle- and low-income people aren't seeing them."

I have argued time and time again, citing the IRS even, explaining why this is a specious and misleading argument and people here still trot it out.

	12-04-2003 00:13									#20
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Bush is a very devisive character: notice that he got a 12% jump in the polls due to the war and never reached 80% like his dad did.

The fact is that Democrats haven't forgotten 2000. We have several months left in this year as is, and if the economy does not pick up substantially, with unemployment going under 5.5% then Bush, but specially the Republicans in congress, will have big troubles. And the thing is that the unemployment rate is actually hinding unemployment: remember, only people actively seekign work are counted..those that have given up after closed to a year of looking aren't classified as unemployed, but they are.It's too early to tell, but there ae plenty of ways for Bush to screw up, specially ocne the War euphoria starts to dissipate.

	12-04-2003 00:46									#21
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don't forget we still need to beat up on North Korea, Syria, Iran, Saudi Arabia, Turkey for opposing the new kurdistan, the new Kurdistan, Iraq III, Lybia, Egypt, Yemen, Pakistan, Cameroon, France, new France, new new France, the smoking crater that was once new new France, and, of course, Mexcio.

YOU DON'T CHANGE HORSES MIDSTREAM.

	12-04-2003 00:50									#22
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question: has there ever been a time when we were at war, someone of the other party won an election, and IMMEDIATELY stopped the war?

	12-04-2003 04:05									#23
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quote: Originally posted by CerberusIV If the voters are happy that they have money to spend and a good prospect of jobs then they will vote for the current administration. If not then they will give the other lot a try.

Whether that be true or not I always find it funny that the Tories won re-election (1992) during a major recession, and lost the next election (1997) during a major economic boon.