16-04-2003 02:18									#1
	Holding Arashi 9 Support Apolyton, buy Civilization 2

I've been running simulations, and I think we can almost guarantee Arashi 9 doesn't fall this next turn, even against 11 Immortals. We take pretty heavy losses, but then again so do they.

The thing is, we only have 3 Pikes there, and they are unfortified. The way the RNG works... those 3 pikes could take out the whole stack, or might not even dent the Immortals. On average they kill 1 each, and then hurt the next rather badly. With just 1 more Pike, the odds swing drastically in our favor. 'Runs' are much less drastic over 16 hps than 12 it seems. They still happen, but on average things are much more 'expected' with 4 Pikes.

To get our 4th Pike there we have to rush it. I'm not sure how the preferences work in PBEM... does it go by what's saved in the game, or by what the player's settings are at at that point? If we can set it up so that our first unit build takes us to the city, we can then go and rush other projects (granted we waste shields this way, but in this case I think it's worth it).

We will have 137g from commerce, do we get the 200 gold from ND before or after the production is gone over? The commerce will be added before the production gets done.

If we can get into the city view, in Arashi, the Pike costs ~80g to rush. If we put everything we have in the area onto Arashi 9, it guarantees they can't bust through. They could get lucky and have ~8 Immortals left (worst case I've run into with 4 Pikes), but they wouldn't be on Arashi 9 regardless of whether they 'won' or 'lost'. That gives us enough time to get more troops together to fight for Arashi, especially if they take the time to heal up (and most of their Immortals need it).

So what we need on Arashi 9 are the 4 Pikes, all our Swords in the area, and all our WC's. I've only twice gotten to where the WC's defend, and only 1 at that (it once killed an Immortal...but that won't happen often best we can hope for is the retreat (50/50)).

Worst Case (that I ran into...about 50 runs): 8 Immortals left at various stages of health. Lose 1 WC, all but one of our Swords, and all our Pikes. We would lose Arashi most likely.

Average Case: 4-6 Immortals left at various stages of health. 1-2 Pikes at low health, 1-3 Swords at low health, and all our WC's left. We win this war if the average holds.

Best Case: 2 Immortals left at low health. 3 Pikes (Elite's) left at various levels of health, 3 Swords left at various levels of health, and all our WC's. And a Leader (3 times out of all the runs).

When using only 3 Pikes, we sometimes get close to the best case, but there are a lot more 'worst case' type outcomes. If at all possible, that 4th Pike..

For the record... I was using all veteran Immortals in my tests, I don't remember the exact makeup, but some of them are regs. So the odds should favor us more if they do try to bust through Arashi 9. I was somewhat suprised to see how badly the Pikes did, normally getting killed by the second Immortal. I have never really built pikes in a game (rarely spears or even riflemen) so this is definitely a learning experience.

	16-04-2003 02:38									#2
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Another thought, on how to keep Hurricane safe...

If we can get into the city view and rush the last 7 shields of Tornado's WC, and then switch to a Pike it would finish if we have 10+ shields per turn there this turn. Only costs 28 gold + WC for the Pike, and would be in time to help defend Hurricane.

	16-04-2003 03:20									#3
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It depends, as nye said, on whether the settings are set to "always build previous unit", or not. If not, we have two chances to get into cityy view, and change the orders (although I haven't done it yet in MP, I'm quite certain it will be possible to rush, there is no reason why it would be different then a single SP turn)

The pike rushed seems a good idea with those odds, however isn't the worker going to finish the road this turn? I somehow had that impression. In that case, those pikes are fortified...

I think it will pay of in the end if we can keep A9, instead of needing to defend Arashi instead. I'm willing to risk a 4th pike, instead of going for the walls.

BTW, if Vox moves onto worked tiles, we should be able to compensate for the shields by going into city view, and scrolling cities too.

DeepO

	16-04-2003 03:33									#4
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As NYE pointed out to me in chat last night, the fortified bonus doesn't kick if you've moved that turn. I didn't know that... maybe Vox doesn't know that... so hopefully they will think they are fortified (the units will look that way) and be less likely to attack.

Our best bet is if they bypass Arashi, giving us more time to build up forces, and giving us free shots on the flats with our WC's and possibly Med Inf in some situations. Their best shot to hurt us by trying to force their way through Arashi 9 this turn.

If they beat us at Arashi 9, I don't think the walls in Arashi would help us much at all. If we hold at Arashi 9, they can't get to Arashi. So I agree, the walls there aren't critical.

If we don't go for a Pike, and can switch Arashi's production, the next best thing would be a Catapult. It basically gives our first Pike Elite status. Either it hits the attacker, or it uses up a 'bad' roll (not sure how bad... but it should cover all the 'attacker wins' rolls, even if it covers some of the 'defender wins' rolls too) for us, so that the first attacker will hit the Pike less.

	16-04-2003 03:39									#5
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Tornado is now switched to a medieval infantry (I thought of it right when I was ready to send the turn), but the same concept holds if we can switch to a WC, short rush, and then switch to a pike.

Regarding Arashi, could we not rush the walls and then switch to a pike before finishing the build if we get a chance to tinker at all? That would reduce the cost of switching to a pike from 80 to 40, right?

	16-04-2003 03:43									#6
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Wow... it doesn't? I knew it didn't count if you used 'fortify all' on already moved units, but single units, with partially movement points remaining? That is quite some news to me!

I'm pretty sure Vox doesn't know this, OTOH, would it really make a difference in case there are only 3 pikes present? I think I would take my chances with 13 immortals against 3 pikes, fortified on mountains. Intuitively, that sounds like a good deal.

Add the (fake fortified) med infs and swords, and intuitively, I would back off, that would seem too much. but Vox? I don't know... they would still outnumber us 2 to 1.

DeepO

	16-04-2003 03:45									#7
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Nathan, as long as it produces 10 shields, a short rush is best, of course. It would have the same effect. Let's hope we can get into city view, while enough gold has already been added to our treasury. But indeed, instead of a walls, I would prefer a catapult too (pike being best)

DeepO

	16-04-2003 03:45									#8
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By the way, Vox's stack of eight was half vet and half regular. Their three immortals in the smaller stack are all vets. So odds should be a bit better for us than what Aeson's testing showed.

	16-04-2003 03:52									#9
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Maybe we could go with the catapult in Monsoon and a Pike in Arashi?

I was just running some tests with only 3 regular Immortals and it looks a lot better. Average seems to be we keep 1 more unit, they lose 1 or 2 more units. (I did have a freak one where they had 9 units live, and another where we won every single battle... let us pray!)

	16-04-2003 04:07									#10
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Do we see where Vox moved its units to before we need to decide on a catapult in Monsoon? In general, I agree that it is the best lace to rush a cat, but only if it is possible to get him out in one piece. If Vox moves their smaller stack onto the road, and their smaller stack next to A9, we probably can't attack the small stack with full force. In that case, our cat maybe can't get to A9, so that it has a lot less value to us.

In case Vox moves both stacks close to A9, a rushed cat would be a help, and one that can get us to hammer their units for as long as they are in our territory.

DeepO

	16-04-2003 04:08									#11
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It would show up in the city view if they were in the way DeepO (let's hope they are, because then we only have to defend against 8 Immortals).

	16-04-2003 04:13									#12
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I was rather thinking on seeing them in the general map, before seeing the city view, but inside the city view would work too.

It's a mixed blessing to get two stacks. It would mean we can almost certainly keep A9, but lose Monsoon...

DeepO

	16-04-2003 04:25									#13
	Support Apolyton or Terrorists Win

If Vox tries for Monsoon, my inclination would be to hit them while we have a chance and hope our three (possibly four if we can switch production and short rush in time) pikes can hold. Our wounded troops can get back to Arashi the turn after, and upgrading the swords will heal them. If the early WC attacks look like we won't be able to save Monsoon, we could cut our losses and move the cat out across the hills if Vox isn't on a road; if they are, rushing a cat would be iffier.

If Vox is blocking the way between Monsoon and Arashi, we'll be able to see it from Monsoon's city view.

	16-04-2003 04:49									#14
	Avatar Enlargement: We've got the solution

Aeson, I'm a little confused... do you mean two turns hence, and assuming that all the Immortals dogpile onto the mountain 89 from Arashi?

	16-04-2003 04:53									#15
	Avatar Enlargement: We've got the solution

Yes, they could have 11 Immortals on 89 of Arashi next turn.

	16-04-2003 05:00									#16
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OK, so our northwestern discussions break down into:

Attacks on Arashi, Monsoon, or both (or a bypass)
SoD versus split forces

And the latest screenshot is the one with 4 Immortals 88 of Arashi and [EDIT] 8 more 889 of Arashi.

Yes?

[EDIT: Corrected by Aeson below]

Last edited by Theseus on 16-04-2003 at 05:25

	16-04-2003 05:02									#17
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There are 3 Immortals and a reg Spear 88 of Arashi, and 4 vet Immortals, 4 reg Immortals, 889.

	16-04-2003 21:57									#18
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What exactly do we have at our disposal in and around Arashi when we open the turn?

The Infocenter, as FP said, is not up to date (you can see the difference in the screenshots - we have pikes, not spears, there are no units "6" of Monsoon, etc).

From what I can tell, this is what we've got in and around Arashi:

3 vet pikes
2 vet swords
2 regular swords
2 regular warriors
4 vet WCs, 1 elite WC

We also seem to get 2 new WCs this turn, but they will spend their turn moving toward the front.

Am I miscalculating?

-Arrian

	16-04-2003 22:12									#19
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I'd love to manage 1 pikeman + 1 med inf upgrade (reg warrior) if possible. If not, 2 med inf upgrades.

We need hitting power as much as we need defense.

-Arrian

	17-04-2003 04:15									#20
	Support Apolyton

We've already upgraded all our spears to pikes. So the only way we'll be spending gold on pikes is if we get a chance to use short-rushes to finish one or two of them this turn.

My own feeling is that defense is our paramount concern at this particular moment. If we can make it so Vox has to either attack large forces of pikes on mountains or move through flatlands, they're dead (barring exceptionally bad luck with the RNG) because time and mobility are on our side. But if Vox can blast through our defenses on a mountain, they can hurt us without giving our offensive units (especially our WCs) good odds for preemptive strikes.

	17-04-2003 04:26									#21
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If the ND deals goes along as planned, we should have over 320 gold to spend on rushing, if we want to. That's 80 shields we can rush, as long as we don't rush empty queues. Although I don't particularly like upgrading reg warriors to med infs, we maybe need to as fast as we can safely do it. Also, even if I agree that our pikes are highest priority, we should have some way of attacking large amounts of immortals on mountains. Getting some catapults would certainly help, med inf against a healthy immortal on a mountain is a bit too expensive for us. And we only have 6 mountain attackers atm.

DeepO

	17-04-2003 04:49									#22
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If we intend to hold Arashi 9 or die trying, the warriors are probably going to be the only units we get a chance to upgrade this turn. All our swords are needed as defenders, either on Arashi 9 or around Hurricane.

	17-04-2003 04:52									#23
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We should be able to rush 2 pikes this turn, Nathan.

	17-04-2003 04:54									#24
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Are you talking about the partial rushes during the build process at the beginning of the turn if we can catch the city views in time, or something else?

	17-04-2003 04:58									#25
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Something else. We can seed Arashi with a worker, or 2, disbanded and rush to a WC, then switch to a Pike which would complete the next turn.

Tempest may not need a rush, but can do likewise without needing any seeding if we start 2 from a Pike.

	17-04-2003 05:00									#26
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I think we should upgrade at least one of the Swords in Hurricane to a Med Inf this turn, possibly 2 (a vet and a reg, so we can have a vet Sword fortified 6 of Sandstorm so our vet Med Inf wouldn't be the first to die if they hit that way).

If Vox blows through our Pike that will be 8 of Hurricane, we need to be able to kill their units while on a Mountain. Otherwise we face a sticky situation where we have to defend Hurricane, our Workers 6 of Sandstorm, and our Iron (we can leave this open for 1 turn, as they can't move onto it and pillage it the same turn). We just don't have the units to do that.

They will likely have a full hp Immortal, one at about half health, and the other one dead. 2 Med inf should be able to kill the full health, and 2 swords get the low health one.

	17-04-2003 05:04									#27
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I think we will be able to rush Monsoon's build (a Cat?) because Arashi will finish it's walls before it gets to Monsoon.

I'm not sure if there is anyway to get into Arashi before the walls finish. I can't figure out any way to do it in 1.21f (don't have a 1.14f install currently). Anyone know of a way?

	17-04-2003 05:19									#28
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Yeah, Monsoon should be rushable no matter what. A cat sounds nice, as said before, as long as we can be sure to get it to Arashi or Arashi 9 safely.

As to disbanding workers to see rushes: please only as a last resort, those workers are worth a lot more then the 10 shields invested in them. 40 gold would still be a super price to buy them for, 40 gold spent more on rushes is worth saving a worker from destruction, IMO. Of course, if we don't have the 40 gold, and need it immediately, there is no other choice left.

DeepO

	17-04-2003 05:49									#29
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I hate the thought of disbanding workers too, but if it comes to losing a worker or a population-4 city (Arashi), I'll take sacrificing the worker. We'll have to see how things look when we get the turn.

	17-04-2003 07:52									#30
	Avatar Enlargement: We've got the solution

Aeson, we don't have to kill the immortals around Hurricane to win, just stop them long enough for reinforcements to arrive. I think having our swordsmen fortified is more useful than upgrading to medieval infantry in that regard.

If we have two regular and one vet swordmen fortified on Sandstorm 6, Vox would need some pretty good luck to break through in a single turn - three victories in three combats, two with odds slightly against them. Penetrating Hurricane 8 with a pikeman and a fortified regular swordsman on it would also be difficult, and would leave our swordsmen on Sandstorm 6 in a position to either attack or move into Hurricane or onto the iron. Either way, we can have our first EotS pikeman ready to defend whichever city might be threatened. So with reasonable luck, Vox's surviving forces will be forced to lick their wounds a bit, giving us time to build up a level of defensive force they can't penetrate.

Regarding the iron, we could move our WC 6-9 from Arashi onto it if we don't need the unit to attack this turn. That would prevent a Voxian naval landing, and Vox can't reach the tile by land without going through Hurricane 8. After two more moves by us, our galleys will be far enough north that Vox won't be able to land on the iron at all without our seeing it coming.