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vulture
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Leeds, UK
Jun 2001
time: 05:27
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What would we be trying to achieve if we were in Vox's position here?
I'm a bit of a novice at MP civ, but at a rought estimate, if I wanted to conquer most/all of the GS cities, I'd want an army of around 40 immortals, in two stacks of 20 or so, aiming for the big cities first. With only around 20 immortals total I'd be looking just to do a bit of razing and pillaging, to prune GS back before they got to feudalism (too late) and chivalry (at which point immortals become a knight training regime). Since most of the useful defense is going to come from war chariots, GS are always going to come out better in a war of attrition (30 shields for an immortal, 10 for a WC, and a WC attacking an immortal is an even fight). So I'd want a short war to destroy one big town or a few small ones, and make peace while I still had the initiative, at which point both sides get building units for the rematch in about 20 turns.
They're going to realise pretty quickly (if they haven't already) that their forces, as visibly to us, aren't enough to take and hold a town. With luck from the RNG they have enough to raze a town, although they are only threatening Monsoon and Arashi at the moment. They can't go pillaging without fast movers, since the trade off of losing using just to damage tiles (which can be replaced in 5 turns by an industrious worker) isn't worth it.
So they have to hope that they can significantly dent our production base before we can overwhelm their production, by razing vital towns.
Getting a big force onto the mountains near Hurricane was never going to be possible in secret, so the attack would have to come from D'ville (no surprise there), and aim to raze two or three of the western cities. From the current position of Vox troops it can be seen that Monsoon is unguarded, while Arashi has some kind of garrison. I'm pretty sure that I'd find it hard to resist the temptation to send a few troops that way, even if it is a stupid thing to do, but lets see how impulsive Vox really are.
Since this isn't intended to be a war of conquest (unless Vox have badly underestimated how many troops they need, and don't know which are the good targets to attack (or are under the delusion what WCs can't attack units on mountains)) they will probably give up when they take about 50% casualties, dead or seriously injured. That's basically 6 immortals from their main stacks (assuming they don't divert anything to Hurricane). Which, assuming they go for Arashi, means the battle for Arashi 9 could be enough to make them give up and go home, or at least go for a ceasefire to rebuild and heal damaged troops. (And a ceasefire works in our favour with our higher production base).
The alternative explanation is that this is a desperation gambit. Having been pushed off Bob, and suspecting that they are going to get crushed once we get to chivalry, they have mustered what forces they can in the short window of opportunity they had, and will see how it goes because they didn't really have any choice long-term. In which case they'll be trying to keep our cities if they take them, since if they can't, they'd be doomed anyway.
From what I've seen so far, I'd guess that they are trying an ill-advised bit of pruning, which is mainly going to help everyone but them and us. But given the fact that with Bob off limits (for now) there is only this island to settle on, and the longer they leave it, the harder it becomes for them, I don't really think they needed too much outside prodding to get into this war.
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asleepathewheel
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listening too long to one song
Mar 2002
time: 00:27
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I'm fairly certain that they were encouraged to start this war.
They were probably promised our continent in exchange for military aid, cash for warrior-immortal upgrades.
Have to leave now, but my last thought is:
There will be no cease fire, one of us will be ejected from the continent.
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Shiber
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Haifa, Israel
Jul 2002
time: 07:27
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quote:
Originally posted by Theseus
FYI, WCs cost 20 shields, and cannot attack units on mountains unless there is a road there. |
Nor can they attack units on hills or jungle (again, unless they're roaded).
Great post Vulture! I agree on most parts, and I think that they've been driven both by RP, and by their own desperation.
I hope that Vox would quickly reach a state where they would realize that they have absolutely no chance, after losing a large portion of their troops. At this point, I would be in favor of sending Vox a peace offer, in exchange for lots of gold and/or cities, and unleash a deadly attack after 10 or so turns.
Although I doubt that they would agree to peace even if 75% of their forces are destroyed, because IMHO they are driven by desperation and they've already accepted that this is an "all or nothing" situation, it'd be worth a try IMHO.
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alva
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Republic of Flanders
Sep 2001
time: 06:27
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We can't offer any peace treaty (yet?), surely not now after all our bolstering(sp?). If we offer one now, think of what they would say/think...
Oh, and we must stay confiden in public, or at least keep the same tone. Just be  
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BTW; I think they were more or less forced into this war. After there little excursion, I think there were given a choice, eiter you attack GS woth our support(and a chance to stardom) or we (all three Bobians?) come after you and will exterminate you ...
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I don't they wanted to started this fast either, but GoW probably told about our ETA on feudalism and therefore also close to chivalry, so it was IMO a matter of now or never..( and yeah, us blabbing about getting rid of Vox, might have had some influence too )
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Aeson
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orangesoda
Nov 2001
time: 22:27
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I think they are going to plow through Arashi. We should hope they try to bypass it, and make Arashi 9 as intimidating as possible to take. Their building of that road 2 of Dissidentville tells me they want to flood right down the Spinebreaker though. Another probability is they want to claim the Iron by monsoon... which would mean they plan on taking the city. I guess we'll see this turn.
Their best shot at hurting us is to plow through Arashi 9 ASAP with all 11 Immortals, and get lucky. Averages would mean their stack breaks on Arashi 9 with what we can put there, and if that happens this war swings drastically in our favor. If we show strong at Arashi 9, maybe they will think again and bypass it, realizing the all-or-nothing nature of such a battle for them.
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Our biggest concern is Hurricane and it's Mountains. We can have 2 Pikes in Hurricane (EotS' and Tornado's) by the time we need them even if they blow through the Pike on the Mountain. The main problem is they can cut off our Iron if we put everyone in Hurricane.
Upgrading the 2 Vet Swords to Med Infantry there, and sending that Reg Sword from Arashi, should mean that Hurricane stands even if we get very unlucky. They'd have to kill 3 Pikes against close to 70% odds, and do so with enough HP's left that our Med Inf don't just walk over them afterwards. We just have to ensure that we have enough units in the area so that they can't take Hurricane by getting lucky with three straight attacks, and that we can kill them if they move onto our Iron.
Med Infantry counterattacking should take care of the threat if they kill the Pike 8 of Hurricane (which will be Hurricane's first build) before they can threaten the city or the Iron on average though. If they go for the Workers, we buy more time, and they run 50:50 odds in attacking, likely losing any chance to take Hurricane. If we have 4 units on Sandstorm 6 (even if the 4th is a WC), they can't take the Workers anyways.
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16-04-2003 17:44
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