26-04-2003 05:27									#1
	How close is China really to becoming a superpower? Browse Apolyton AD-FREE

I was just about to post this in the uni- or bi-polar world thread, but thought the discussion deserved its own thread....

I get the sense from these forums that there is an over-inflated sense of how important/fast-rising China is on the world stage. As far as I'm concerned, China still has a ways to go to even approach Britain or France in terms of power/influence on the world stage, or Japan or Germany in terms of global economic importance. They may well be the next big thing, but it seems to me that China becoming a really "big-thing" is extremely far into the future.

	26-04-2003 05:30									#2
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Anybody with nukes has influence, its just china likes to keep pretty quiet so nobody tries telling them to actually read about human rights.
As far as i can remember they're steadily changing their economy and working on reducing population to the extent in about 50years they will seriously challenge the US for top spot.

	26-04-2003 05:39									#3
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I agree with Laz. 50 Years and China might be butting heads with the US, especially with their rapid capitalization and strong military power.

	26-04-2003 05:41									#4
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I dunno if 50 years is realistic. China is woefully behind the US, Britain, France, Japan, Germany and several other European coutries in the amount of foreign investment it has made, it's currency isn't even on the radar screen of global importance, aside from the nukes, it can't project military power anywhere except across its immediate borders, still has to make monumental strides towards having a middle class become the largest segment of its population, and is trying to move forward with a political system that is ultimately at lagerheads with the economic system it's trying to develop.

	26-04-2003 05:43									#5
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50 years, give or take a decade depending on how effective the US is in maintaining its lead.

This is assuming that China manages to hold itself together. It's a huge and diverse country, so there is a very real chance that it might succumb to internal differences long before it manages to challenge the US.

edit: My 50 years prediction loses a lot of its force when I'm the third one to say it.

	26-04-2003 05:46									#6
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It needs a middle class. Until it develops a base of consumers, it will never have an economy worth mentioning.

	26-04-2003 05:46									#7
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I could take longer... They have a rather weak navy and airforce compared to the US, and it is worthy to point out most of thier naval and air force units are not made in china as almost everything else... hehe

	26-04-2003 05:49									#8
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quote: I dunno if 50 years is realistic.

In 1950, Japan was third world country. In 2000 it was an economic power .

Compare 1953 South Korea with 2003 South Korea.

50 years is a long time in modern history .

	26-04-2003 05:49									#9
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I was actually first to reply and somebody took notice of me ... cool

	26-04-2003 05:51									#10
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quote: It needs a middle class. Until it develops a base of consumers, it will never have an economy worth mentioning.

I don't know about that. If they want to catch the US, then yes they do need a domestic middle class. However, you can certainly build "an economy worth mentioning" based mostly on exports; just look at the Japanese.

	26-04-2003 05:52									#11
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quote: In 2000 it was an economic power

You might want to change that date to 1990. The last decade hasn't been kind to the Japanese.

	26-04-2003 06:01									#12
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quote: Originally posted by Imran Siddiqui quote: I dunno if 50 years is realistic. In 1950, Japan was third world country. In 2000 it was an economic power . Compare 1953 South Korea with 2003 South Korea. 50 years is a long time in modern history .

Granted, 50 years is a long time in modern history, but I definitely have to take exception with your examples.

In 1950, Japan was only a third world country because it had just had the living shi*t bombed out of it. During the Meiji restoration, Japan became a significant industrial power, and obviously developed a military quite capable of doing some serious damage on the world stage (without nukes, mind you). It's technological prowess may not have been up to western standards, but it wasn't that far behind.

As for South Korea, it is a better rags-to-riches story, but was done with a much more pro-market form of government than China that employed a fair degree of nationalistic fervor. Still, though SK is relatively prosperous today, it's way behind a number of countries in terms of economic and military importance.

I'm not saying that China isn't moving forward, and at a pretty good clip, just that I think they have a lot further to go than some others think.

	26-04-2003 06:02									#13
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In 50 years, India will be a superpower. Not China.

	26-04-2003 06:04									#14
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quote: Originally posted by Drake Tungsten quote: It needs a middle class. Until it develops a base of consumers, it will never have an economy worth mentioning. I don't know about that. If they want to catch the US, then yes they do need a domestic middle class. However, you can certainly build "an economy worth mentioning" based mostly on exports; just look at the Japanese.

Yeah, but Japan has a huge middle class, and even though it's not quite like the US, there's a good deal of domestic consumption.

	26-04-2003 06:06									#15
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quote: but was done with a much more pro-market form of government than China that employed a fair degree of nationalistic fervor.

This is exactly what China is trying to do. Nationalism replaced Marxism as the guiding ideology of China years ago.

quote: Still, though SK is relatively prosperous today, it's way behind a number of countries in terms of economic and military importance.

If China can achieve South Korea's level of prosperity, then it will easily surpass every other country in the world save for the US. The sheer size of China greatly augments any improvements it will make in the future.

	26-04-2003 06:08									#16
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quote: Yeah, but Japan has a huge middle class, and even though it's not quite like the US, there's a good deal of domestic consumption.

I don't see why China wouldn't develop a middle class similar to Japan's.

	26-04-2003 06:08									#17
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quote: In 1950, Japan was only a third world country because it had just had the living shi*t bombed out of it. During the Meiji restoration, Japan became a significant industrial power, and obviously developed a military quite capable of doing some serious damage on the world stage (without nukes, mind you). It's technological prowess may not have been up to western standards, but it wasn't that far behind.

Fine, take 1880 Japan and 1930 Japan .

quote: If China can achieve South Korea's level of prosperity, then it will easily surpass every other country in the world save for the US.

Yep!

	26-04-2003 06:12									#18
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quote: Originally posted by Drake Tungsten If China can achieve South Korea's level of prosperity, then it will easily surpass every other country in the world save for the US. The sheer size of China greatly augments any improvements it will make in the future.

If China can achieve SK's level of prosperity across the board in 50 years, I'll be surprised.

	26-04-2003 06:15									#19
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quote: If China can achieve SK's level of prosperity across the board in 50 years, I'll be surprised.

I don't really know if they can or not; there are too many variables involved to make an accurate prediction. It's certainly possible, however, so you might as well plan how to respond to it if it does happen.

	26-04-2003 07:29									#20
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quote: Originally posted by Zkribbler It needs a middle class. Until it develops a base of consumers, it will never have an economy worth mentioning.

"Middle class?" Boy, the term is now thoroughly abused.

	26-04-2003 07:31									#21
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At current GDP growth rates, China will GDP equivalent of about US28,000 per capita in about 30 years. That's close to most western countries today.

But having a developed economy won't make it a superpower. Even having nukes doesn't make it a superpower.

China will need a bluewater navy. something it is only just beginning to develop. It needs an army and air force that can exert influence outside its boundaries, which it doesn't have right now.

	26-04-2003 07:32									#22
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quote: Originally posted by Kontiki If China can achieve SK's level of prosperity across the board in 50 years, I'll be surprised.

50 years is a long time. You need to remember that poorer countries improve much faster than rich ones.

That said, I don't think the PRC will be a superpower in the forseeable future. Being a superpower means it needs to project power across the globe, which doesn't fit in the current policies.

	26-04-2003 07:36									#23
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somewhere between "not close" and "Light years off"

	26-04-2003 08:12									#24
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Its not going to take that long. China is the most significant economy in the world outside the US. The investment in China is enormous and the potential domestic market will transform asia. There is no doubt China in 10 years will be an economic superpower.

To be a true superpower, you need the military to back it up. Unlike the Soviets who spent beyond their means, the Chinese will be able to afford a superpower military and they certainly have the will and the manpower to achieve it. In 15 years, China will be a superpower to match the US.

	26-04-2003 08:40									#25
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Look back farther when westeners first went to Japan. The government their decided to industrialize, and I think less then 50 years after the start of industrialization (maybe even as little as 25), they had a modern military and were able to defeat Russia. Although amount of time could be off, but I doubt it.

	26-04-2003 08:49									#26
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China has immense potential: it is the fourth largest economy in the world today, unless you use PPP porjections and then it is the second largest economy in the world today (India being way, way behind).

Technological progress today takes far less time: China already is a huge porducer of computer tech and a huge market for modern telecom. Even if only the coastal provinces reached SKorea levels, that would mean a huge boost in economic weight.

But all of thsi will only matter if China overcomes several main problems, with corruption in the hinterland and waining central gov. services in education and healthcare for the 800 million peasants. That is where the current Chinese leadership faces the biggest potential political nightmare. I think it will take a strong leadership to solve this, and the current leadership is not that..I think China will face political turmoil in the next 20 year, but after that it will continue to boost ahead.

I don;t think China will break up: the power of the central government is stronger now than it ever was under the emperors and foreign assault higly unlikely, plus a steady strem of nationalism helps to keep most Chinese in line (Even if Tibet broke off, that would only mean loosing about 12 million people out of 1.2 billion). China was the world leader from 1000-1600, and the biggest single economy till 1800. I see no reason why within the next century it will return there.

	26-04-2003 10:12									#27
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The Economist seems to be reporting China will catch up to us in about eight yearsa....

	26-04-2003 10:36									#28
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If China is still the same in 50 years I will be very surprised and impressed.

What did people think of the USSR in 1960?

	26-04-2003 10:41									#29
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quote: Originally posted by GePap But all of thsi will only matter if China overcomes several main problems, with corruption in the hinterland and waining central gov. services in education and healthcare for the 800 million peasants. That is where the current Chinese leadership faces the biggest potential political nightmare.

That's correct. Peasants are the issue. Throughout Chinese history, he who had peasant support became emperor, he who lost peasant support got overthrown. I have always thought that the PRC leaders should abandon the idea of self-sufficency in basic cereals, because that's not the big money maker. They should embrace organic farming. In fact, I think China is perfect for organic farming, which is labour intensive but fetches good $$$ on the international market.

quote: Originally posted by GePap I don;t think China will break up: the power of the central government is stronger now than it ever was under the emperors and foreign assault higly unlikely, plus a steady strem of nationalism helps to keep most Chinese in line (Even if Tibet broke off, that would only mean loosing about 12 million people out of 1.2 billion).

I don't think so either. The cutural bind is very, very strong. One single spoken langauge (for virtually all the people) and one single written langauge.

	26-04-2003 10:47									#30
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China will be a superpower 25 years after the pro-democracy revolution. I think that revoltion will happen within 10 years. So - 35 years.

If the revolution never comes, China's economy will never match that of the United States. When I was a kid, they projected the USSR to catch the US in time. It never happened. Not even close.