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Fried-Psitalon
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Not just another pretty face.
Dec 2002
time: 00:27
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If you still believe that CDG is not planning an offensive, click the BACK button now. Go away.
I propose an aggressive and immediate manuever intended to choke and slow down CDG's efforts right now. With all due respect to our long-term planners, we have a short-term problem facing us, and this has suddenly become a very normal "Internet MP game" and probably always has been from CDG's perspective. Unless our long-term plans are to choke and die when the Immortal rush comes, I suggest we move immediately in a "Stop-Punch" designed to disrupt CDG's plans immediately.
Needed resources:
1 worker
1 settler
2-4 Numidian Mercenaries. (Yes, I'm well aware of how open that would leave us. Read on.)
In another thread I mentioned the possibility of a "Defensive Township" on a hill across a river. I now reiterate that need- or perhaps something even more aggressive.
One tactic that has always worked well in my experience is "Military Encampment." Currently, we know that CDG has *NO* sentry net watching for incoming troops. They probably figure we're building away up here, doing what Carthage does best. That is a serious error.
I propose that 1 settler with the above needed resources moves out IMMEDIATELY for CDG's iron deposit.
Yes, you read that correctly. I propose that we immediately move a settler with 2-4 numidian mercenaries guarding it with the aim of either settling ON CDG's iron, or one square away from it. The worker should begin a road in that direction as soon as possible. If that settler currently under production is heading for that iron deposit (which would be the best move, or to the hill 2 N above it) then we put our Military Encampment on the hill I mentioned in the previous thread on City Placement.
Possible scenarios of response:
Best case: CDG does not detect our force until it arrives 1 square outside, just as our warrior is now. CDG judges their force insufficient to the task, and our settler and co. move onto the iron, and settle. Hill defense with yummy num mercs, immediate wall build, thank you and good night. CDG ceases to be a power.
Next best case: CDG sends minimal force to cover the iron after we are detected. We attack with 1 of our 4 mercs, take the hill, and settle.
Next best case: CDG sends sufficient force to civer the iron. We settle on the hill beside the iron, and forever menace that location, disrupting CDG's plans and forcing them to try and drive us away- but since we would have their iron within our new borders, that would be difficult.
Next best case: CDG settles on that iron before we arrive. We settle on the hill north of it, forcing them to devote significant resources to defending that location, and also giving us a nice outpost for watching and for attacking.
Next (not at all good but acceptable) case: CDG sees us coming from a distance- we settle the hill on our side of the river and pretty much force them to come to us there. (An immortal attacking that township would be a sorry sight indeed.) They *would* attack us there, since that town is the most dangerous to them and is also a place where we could speedily counterattack if they don't. They would also drown in rivers of blood if they tried, but not attacking that town would probably be more dangerous.
Respectfully submitted and strongly urged: Operation Clutch, as in, let's make CDG clutch desperately at their iron while we rip it away. NOW. Before they can get the offensive both we and GCA have a right to worry about going.
One of war's oldest axioms, badly paraphrased: If you are responding to your enemy's actions, you are losing. If they are responding to yours, you are winning.
This is a *GOLDEN* opportunity to take the initiative.
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vondrack
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Praha, Czech Republic
Jan 2002
time: 06:27
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Well, a bold plan it is, but it would take us 11 turns to get our CURRENT settler to that CDG iron hill. I will bet 50 bucks on that by that time, CDG will already have a city placed on that hill NE (9) of their iron or somewhere close to that place. Their settler will be ready in 5 turns, 1-2 more turns to move, 1 more turn to build the city. We can't get there that fast unless we fly... and they WILL move their spearmen to that hill when they see us coming - it will take them 1 turn to have it fortified there. Mercs taking upon a fortified spearman upon a hill, most probably across a river... 21% chance to win.
Plus, the radius of their capital will expand in 12 turns. A city placed upon that hill would be quite vulnerable to a culture flip.
Not that I'd dismiss your plan because of fearing the fight - I just think the operation would turn into an attack instead of seizing and holding a position. And that is something Mercs are not particularly good at... we would very likely end up waging a war of attrition.
We would have our GA triggered by a Merc hopefully defending successfully against an Immortal (not that it would be so obvious we'd win such a fight...).
I will think about it a little more, but ATM, I believe we would actually just make sure that CDG turns against us, instead of GCA... having actually very little chance to succeed with such an unexpected move...
Another question with an IMHO non-trivial answer is: do we want to make sure CDG ceases to be a threat so soon? Since they are going to be a threat not only to us, but to GCA as well...
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dejon
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At first read, I liked the plan. However, vondrack raised several important issues that dissuaded me. We need to do something to send a clear message that we are not weak (as if our NMs don't anyways), so that they look to invade south instead of north.
Btw, why would they road the tile NE of their iron if they planned to build a city there? I think they made be headed for the gold hill as a city site - behind a river to us on a hill.
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Fried-Psitalon
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Not just another pretty face.
Dec 2002
time: 00:27
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You'll note my original comment in the City Placement thread puts us on that very hill. I think Dejon has hit upon the importance of that hill-river-hill junction, too. If we don't get there first, they'll have a well situated base for attacks on us.
What I would reccomend is starting a settler with guards out TOWARDS the iron location, and if a town pops up in the way (say, on the iron or what not) then we go to the backup hill beside the river.
If that settler instead moves south (the area that Bigfree is in, for example, isn't too terrible a location to settle and solidifies the CDG border against GCA) we continue our march southward.
Vondrack- I'm expecting they'll move spears onto Iron Hill to protect it, as well. The second-best-situation is the one I think will probably happen. That's why I suggested we plop the town down right BY that hill - our borders will claim the iron. We make a point of getting a temple in there relatively early, and make sure to chuck a few settlers southward, and we'll be able to defend against culture flips just fine. We'll have two luxuries under our control, so we don't have much to fear from culture flips.
I'm proposing bold and aggressive action now because it would be so unexpected and would completely neuter CDG. Of course, we could also TRADE them back their iron... at a brutal cost. 
It just pains me to see iron so easily disrupted, us playing the ultimate disruption Civ, and us leaving it completely unharassed.
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Trip
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Hunt Valley
Apr 2002
time: 00:27
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If it weren't for that road and that Worker, then I'd probably be of the opinion that the chance that CDG would attack us is low.
But there is that road and there is that Worker. That Worker is doing 1 of two things.
1) Connecting future city sites.
Uhhh... hello? They have a bunch of other not-fully-improved bonus grass tiles. Wouldn't that be a better idea to use your Worker on? Of course. Which leads me to...
2) A road to speedily send forces to our heartland.
They want to build a city near us and a road right up to our capital. This, my good friends, is very not good. It immediately makes the Warrior screen we've set up useless. They can simply funnel troops through their borders half the distance between them and us. That road is very incriminating.
The problem with F-P's plan to deal with their iron is the time-table. Vondrack pointed out that it will be 11 turns before we can get a city there. In 11 turns, CDG will have another city with a hightway being built to our city grid. In 11 turns CDG will probably have finished or close to be finished with 2 more vet Immortals in their capital. In 11 turns they'll easily be able to withdraw any other Warriors near their capital (probably ~3) and upgrade at least one or two of them. Even with 2 NMs fortified in a city, 4 Immortals, 2 of them vets will probably be able to take our city. If we lose that city, then we lose our main defense force, we lose one of our potential production centers, we get CDG mad at us, we possibly provide CDG with a few easy promotions, and we are looked at by the international community as the instigators.
Note, this isn't "Trip trying to avoid war here." At this point, I realize war is inevitable one way or another... if CDG attacks us, we're obviously at war. If they attack GCA, we'll eventually have to get involved. I think that this may be a bit too much of a too-little too-late effort... CDG will have the means to destroy any force we can send down there soon. We have to make sure we out-prepare them instead, and make plans to cut their road/iron/cities ASAP when the war begins.
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Trip
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Hunt Valley
Apr 2002
time: 00:27
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quote:
Originally posted by dejon
 I'm going back and forth on this.
If CDG is going to attack us, we'll end up with a Depotism Golden Age (which may well be their purpose). 
However, if they aren't planning on war, FP's plan would certainly start one - and we'd be responsible for our own Depotism GA.
From our diplomatic relations so far, it seems unlikely that we could either talk them into peace (if they are preparing for war), or convince them that GCA is a better target.
We need to be convinced that war is their intention, and the evidence isn't conclusive yet. |
We're very close to that convinced. It will depend on what they do with their Worker. If they have it move NE, then they're obviously building a road towards us, which is quite definitive.
In any case, they're going to war with someone. We can't stand by and let them crush GCA. CDG at full mobilization will be able to take out GCA who isn't. We can't allow that to happen, and to ensure that GCA survives (and that we get our piece of the pie) we have to have our own army which can actually do something aside from defend ourselves.
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wervdon
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I'm pretty sure they'll come after us instead of GCA. All other factors aside, they probally view us as a much bigger threat than GCA. And assuming that GCA isn't outright in on the plans (either an alliance or an agreement not to get involved), it'd be reasonable to assume GCA would stay out of a war between us and CDG. On the other hand, CDG can't assume the opposite, that we'll stay out of it if they are wiping out GCA (and rightly so we wouldn't).
In short they probally figure that their only chance to prosper is take out one of their neihbors, and they see their choices as fighting GCA with us being the opportunists we are and stabbing them in the back, or just going straight for us while GCA watches. If I was them, I'd attack us first in a heartbeat. Think of it this way, if you're in a single player game and you have Germany to your north and France to your south, who is on your mind the most? Who do you take out first chance you can get? I know I go for the germans and assume I can mop up the french with my remaining army when Im done with the real threat.
I know thats alot of speculation, but given that we know they are planning to go to war and there are only two choices for the target, its a safe bet to assume they've already had this debate and this stuff has been brought up.
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wervdon
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My germany/france comparison was on team personalities not abilities. In most people's eyes poly would be a bigger "threat" than GCA based on reputation alone without any regard to the actual game situation.
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E_T
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Orlando, Florida
Mar 2001
time: 00:27
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quote:
Originally posted by dejon
I'm going back and forth on this.
If CDG is going to attack us, we'll end up with a Depotism Golden Age (which may well be their purpose).
However, if they aren't planning on war, FP's plan would certainly start one - and we'd be responsible for our own Depotism GA.
From our diplomatic relations so far, it seems unlikely that we could either talk them into peace (if they are preparing for war), or convince them that GCA is a better target.
We need to be convinced that war is their intention, and the evidence isn't conclusive yet. |
Dejon, if they attack us, they will also have to deal with a despotic GA, the same as us.
E_T
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05-05-2003 17:55
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