08-05-2003 00:01									#1
	Demographics Analysis Support Apolyton, pre-order Civilization IV

One source of information that we've not really been using is the Demographics screen (F11). Time to change this.

First, I asked in the Civ-III-General Forum how the various statistics are calculated. With the help of a thread on CFC, I could discover the formulas.

With the recent founding of Incensity, and the growth of our capital, some demographics have changed, giving some info about our opponents. I'll analyze the demographics one by one.

• Approval Rating (%)
  50% + (Number of happy citizens) / (Total number of citizens) / 2 * 100%
  
  Turn 49 score: 50% + 0 / 4 / 2 * 100% = 50% (6th)
  
  Turn 50 score: 50% + 4 / 6 / 2 * 100% = 83% (1st)
  
  We moved up from 6th to 1st.
  Conclusion: last turn, 5 civs had some happy people. They seem to be have more content people (i.e. they are bigger than we are), now that we are 1st.
  
  
• Population (# of people)
  Sum(i=1..N) {Pop in City(i)}
  
  Pop in City = {Sum (j=1..(City Size)) {j} + (Food in Storage) / (Storage Size)} * 10000
  
  Turn 49 score: 85000 (7th)
  
  Turn 50 score: 70000 (Poly) + 26000 (Ming) + 16000 (Banana) + 10000 (Incense) = 122000 (6th)
  
  Bah, we're still only 6th. CDG has at least 80000 (Elu) + 20000 (Goats) + 20000 (Zari) = 120000, so with a bit of food, they are likely to have more pop than us. Probably Firaxis has the least pop now (but more than 85000).
  
  
• GNP (millions)
  1 million = 1 Commerce (before corruption)
  
  Turn 49 score: 11 million (5th)
  
  Turn 50 score: 15 million (4th)
  
  We moved up from 5th to 4th. Nice.
  
  
• Mfg. Goods (megatons)
  1 megaton = 1 shield
  
  Turn 49 score: 10 megatons (6th)
  
  Turn 50 score: 14 megatons (1st)
  
  We moved up from 6th to the #1 spot! A very good achievement probably due to little corruption. The civs are probably very close here.
  
  
• Land area (square miles)
  100 square miles = 1 territory tile (including sea tiles)
  
  Turn 49 score: 3400 square miles (7th)
  
  Turn 50 score: 3800 square miles (7th)
  
  Now, that doesn't help much. We are probably quite tightly spaced in the city department.
  
  
• Literacy (%)
  (Citizens who live in a city with a Library + Citizens who live in a city with a University + Citizens who live in a city with a Research Lab) / 3 / (Total Number of Citizens) * 100% + (3% if Literature discovered)
  
  The following wonders count as Library, University and Research Lab: Great Library, Newton's, SETI Program, Theory of Evolution, Cure for Cancer, Internet.
  
  The following small wonders count as half a wonder: Apollo Program, Intelligence Agency.
  
  Turn 49 score: 0% (1st)
  
  Turn 50 score: 0% (1st)
  
  All Zero. No one has built a library yet, or discovered Literature.
  
  
• Disease (%)
  (Number of Floodplains + Jungle in territory) / (Total Number of territory tiles) * 100%
  
  Turn 49 score: 26% (8th)
  
  Turn 50 score: 23% (8th)
  
  We have the most jungle! Yeehaa!
  
  
• Pollution (tons)
  1 ton = 1 polluted territory tile
  
  Turn 49 score: 0 (1st)
  
  Turn 50 score: 0 (1st)
  
  All Zero. Duh.
  
  
• Life Expectancy (# of years)
  20 + {(Citizens who live in a city with a Granary + Citizens who live in a city with a Aqueduct + Citizens who live in a city with a Hospital) / 3 / (Total Number of Citizens) * 80}
  
  Turn 49 score: 20 + {(2 + 0 + 0) / 3 / 4 * 80} = 33 years (4th)
  
  Turn 50 score: 20 + {(3 + 0 + 0) / 3 / 6 * 80} = 33 years (4th)
  
  What can I say? Three of the civs have more than half of their population in a Granary city.
  
  
• Family Size (# of children)
  Max {1, (Total Extra Food) / (Number of Cities) / 2}
  
  Turn 49 score: Max {1, 7 / 3 / 2} = 1 (rounded down) (6th)
  
  Turn 50 score: Max {1, 9 / 4 / 2} = 1 (rounded down) (5th)
  
  Not a very useful statistic.
  
  
• Military Service (# of years)
  (Number of Military Units with Attack > 0) / (Total Number of Citizens) * 10
  
  Turn 49 score: (7 + 2) / 4 * 10 = 22 years (1st)
  
  Turn 50 score: (7 + 2) / 6 * 10 = 15 years (2nd)
  
  Most other civs probably have more citizens, so don't go celebrating this one yet.
  
  
• Annual income (# per capita)
  1 + (Number of available Strategic and Luxury Resource Types) + (1 if you have a trade route)
  
  Turn 49 score: 1 + 0 + 0 = 1 (7th)
  
  Turn 50 scoer: 1 + 1 + 0 = 2 (2nd)
  
  Ah, now. 6 civs seem to have had an annual income of 2 or more in turn 49, but only one has three or more in turn 50. Some civs have hooked up resources (like CDG), and maybe some have a trade route with each other.
  
  
• Productivity (#)
  (Total Shields) + (Total Commerce) + (Total Extra Food)
  
  Turn 49 score: 10 + 11 + 7 = 28 (3rd)
  
  Turn 50 score: 14 + 15 + 9 = 38 (3rd)
  
  Now, why haven't we climbed in ranking?? Some civs must be quite advanced. None has more shields, three have more commerce.
  
  

	08-05-2003 01:37									#2
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Good job! Very impressive work.
Productivity: could be that someone was blessed with a lot of wheat, cattle or flood plains (the latter would also mean a high GNP). I see no other plausible explanation, given that we are #1 in Mfg. Goods as you pointed out.

	08-05-2003 02:55									#3
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Wow, god job BFM. I'd hate to have to do this for every turn, but I suppose that someone must/should do it for each turn here on out.

	08-05-2003 12:59									#4
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Highlights Turn 51

GNP - 15 million (3rd)

Our GNP didn't change, but we moved up to 3rd spot. Probably some civ built a settler, causing a drop in population and therefore in commerce.

Mfg. Goods - 14 megatons (2nd)

We lost a spot here. Someone now has more than 14.

Life Expectancy - 33 years (3rd)

Again, we moved up without increasing our score. It is a granary city that must have built the settler, oir a new city was founded.

Family size - 1 children (3rd)

We moved up two spots, probably due to the problems the city of Shen Ling has, and to the founding of a new city.

	08-05-2003 17:29									#5
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Great analysis, BFM!

	08-05-2003 19:44									#6
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Thank you BFM.

This will give us a lot of insight as to what is going on in the world.

	09-05-2003 05:49									#7
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Don't forget that changes in City WorkForce assignments will also effect some of those numbers.

E_T

	09-05-2003 20:56									#8
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Highlights Turn 52

Approval Rating

78% (3rd)

Due to the extra content citizen in Mingapulco.

Population

140000 (6th)

Still 6th...

Mfg. Goods

13 megatons (3rd)

Another loss. But it surprises me that so many civs have less than us.

	10-05-2003 01:50									#9
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On Disease, doesn't the discovery of Sanitation elimate flood plains tile as a factor?

	10-05-2003 17:22									#10
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quote: Originally posted by joncnunn On Disease, doesn't the discovery of Sanitation elimate flood plains tile as a factor?

hi ,

, never seen it in civ III and PTW , the jungle factor yes , but the flood plains one not , ....

have a nice day


edit ; the editor ( tech ) has indeed for sanitation flagged for no more diasease from flood plains , ....

but in some games you dont see it at all , in oters more , ...

	10-05-2003 17:56									#11
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quote: Originally posted by joncnunn On Disease, doesn't the discovery of Sanitation elimate flood plains tile as a factor?

I'm 99% sure that the answer is yes.
I've never had any instances of disease following the discovery of sanitation, and I've played hundreds, maybe a thousand turns of Civ3 and PTW after sanitation, sometimes with large empires on huge maps and plenty of worked flood plains tiles.

	10-05-2003 18:28									#12
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quote: Originally posted by Shiber I'm 99% sure that the answer is yes. I've never had any instances of disease following the discovery of sanitation, and I've played hundreds, maybe a thousand turns of Civ3 and PTW after sanitation, sometimes with large empires on huge maps and plenty of worked flood plains tiles.

That is indeed how it works.

	10-05-2003 18:30									#13
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quote: but in some games you dont see it at all , in oters more , ...

And it always happens in pairs
If you get one disease hit, next turn you will get anothe one.

	10-05-2003 18:55									#14
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I thought that this wouldn't happen anymore in PTW 1.21, but it still does...

	10-05-2003 22:23									#15
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Unless you manually remove the workers in that city away from disease squares the turn after the disease strikes, your very likely to lose a second the following turn, and still have a large chance at losing a third.

Edit: The above paragraph is in Classic Civ III; I don't know about PTW.

quote: Originally posted by alva quote: but in some games you dont see it at all , in oters more , ... And it always happens in pairs If you get one disease hit, next turn you will get anothe one.

	10-05-2003 22:30									#16
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Once we got 4 disease turns in a row in the PTWDG.
Right in our capitol, still the only active settler pump back then IIRC... ouch.
Put a real dent on our plans.

	11-05-2003 06:49									#17
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[q]Unless you manually remove the workers in that city away from disease squares the turn after the disease strikes[/]
Don't think this works, the only thing that stops it, is if your city is size 1, well duh.

	13-05-2003 12:17									#18
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Highlights Turn 54

Population - 118000 (4th)

Despite building a Settler - we're now number 4 ! Very odd.

On turn 52, we had 140000 and were in 6th position! Is there a major war going on, an outbreak of disease, or is everyone building settlers?

edit: 149000 (5th) on Turn 53.
edit2: CFC also built a settler this turn.

Family size - 1 child (5th)

Four Civs have lots of extra food. Maybe this has to do with the overall population decline in the world?

Last edited by BigFurryMonster on 13-05-2003 at 12:25

	13-05-2003 16:32									#19
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I think multiple someones just built multiple settlers- note Shen Ling is now down to size 3, from starving at 5. They were tweaking their production up to rush the settler, I bet. We're not the only smart dogs in town.

(Though I wouldn't mind if there was a global disease outbreak.)

	13-05-2003 16:39									#20
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You're right:

• CFC built a settler. Population drop in Shen Ling: 5 to 3 (>150000 ==> >60000)
  
• CDG (Elucidium) built a settler (>100000 ==> >30000)
  

	22-05-2003 12:30									#21
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Highlights Turn 58

Land Area - 4700 Square Miles (6th)

Moving up... finally. We seem to have a tight city spacing compared to the rest of the world.

Annual Income - 1 per capita (4th)

Now, this, I can't explain. Why is it lower than it was? We still have our luxury...

	22-05-2003 17:36									#22
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quote: Originally posted by BigFurryMonster Highlights Turn 58 Land Area - 4700 Square Miles (6th) Moving up... finally. We seem to have a tight city spacing compared to the rest of the world. Annual Income - 1 per capita (4th) Now, this, I can't explain. Why is it lower than it was? We still have our luxury...

hi ,

, corruption

have a nice day

	22-05-2003 17:38									#23
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Look at the formula. Corruption is not in there.

	22-05-2003 18:22									#24
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Someone probably finished a road that was nearly tied with us, or connected a new luxury, or something along those lines. It's not just our value within a rated system, there are seven other changing values, too.

	22-05-2003 18:51									#25
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I think BFM should be our Minister of Information since oliverFA has been missing for so long. What do the Consuls think? What does BFM think?

	22-05-2003 19:01									#26
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I'd give that a thumbs-up. That's the sort of thing I would go after if I had more time, but since I don't....

BFM?

	22-05-2003 19:51									#27
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Disease only strikes if you are working a diseased tile.
So manually removing all workers that are working diseased tiles will stop the die off.

The problem is when your city was founded in a flood plains and you don't have Sanitation, in which case you can't remove the city worker from the diseased tile.

There's two ways to make founding cities in Flood Plains worth it:

1. Found several such cities. The usual result is that at some point in the late ancient era or early middle ages, one of these cities will disease down to size 1, but the others are unaffected. The other cities fast growth more than offsets than single unforunate city as long as that city wasn't building a wonder.

2. Either found the cities very early with the plan of getting a couple of pop-rushes made under despotism or else after late enough of the middle ages where the risk is minimal.

quote: Originally posted by alva [q]Unless you manually remove the workers in that city away from disease squares the turn after the disease strikes[/] Don't think this works, the only thing that stops it, is if your city is size 1, well duh.

	28-05-2003 18:18									#28
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The results of this analysis have moved to the Area X thread.