09-05-2003 20:41									#1
	Bush wants MidEast Free Trade Zone Support Apolyton, pre-order Civilization IV

See:
http://www.cnn.com/2003/ALLPOLITICS...east/index.html

Pres. Bush sure is busy reshaping the Middle East!

	09-05-2003 20:43									#2
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Free trade with the US for any country the US approves of.

	09-05-2003 20:49									#3
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quote: Originally posted by MichaeltheGreat Free trade with the US for any country the US approves of.

The carrot and the stick approach is an age old technique to inspire loyalty. So, why not?

If any other country were a sole superpower, I can garantee you they would be doing the exact same thing!

	09-05-2003 20:50									#4
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Furthermore, is it not in the US's best interests to motive as many countries as possible to adopt pro-US policies?

	09-05-2003 20:57									#5
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I am interested to know what kind of international trade would be made easier by that free trade zone in the years to come.

But I see quite well the trades which could be made more difficult

	09-05-2003 21:21									#6
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quote: Originally posted by The diplomat The carrot and the stick approach is an age old technique to inspire loyalty. So, why not?

And there's not a lot of loyalty in the world, is there? Subservience for a time, yes.

quote: If any other country were a sole superpower, I can garantee you they would be doing the exact same thing!

"Hey, officer, if anyone else got to test drive this Ferrari, they'd do 100 in a school zone, too"

What other countries would do in your opinion is relevant how?

	09-05-2003 21:25									#7
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quote: Originally posted by The diplomat Furthermore, is it not in the US's best interests to motive as many countries as possible to adopt pro-US policies?

It's in everyone's best interests to get everyone to adopt pro-them policies.

Unfortunately, national policy isn't so conveniently one-dimensional, nor is trade. Remember our "staunch allies" the Saudis?

Most of these countries have virtually nothing to trade with the US, unless they take China's place as sweatshop labor supplier of choice. Don't bore me with oil - there are no duties on oil, and it's a standard globally traded commodity, with prices set on open markets. Who buys whose oil is irrelevent, except wrt shipping costs. That's why we buy a lot from Nigeria, because it's closer and therefore cheaper to ship to US ports, not because there's a special deal on the oil or we like them.

	09-05-2003 21:38									#8
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quote: Originally posted by MichaeltheGreat "Hey, officer, if anyone else got to test drive this Ferrari, they'd do 100 in a school zone, too" What other countries would do in your opinion is relevant how?

That is not a good example. Driving at 100 mph in a school zone is illegal, setting up a trade zone is not!

	09-05-2003 21:40									#9
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Wow! Things are going just as planned for Bushee... I wonder when the Iran war will start.

	09-05-2003 21:42									#10
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quote: Originally posted by The diplomat That is not a good example. Driving at 100 mph in a school zone is illegal, setting up a trade zone is not!

Whoooooosh, over your head.

I was pointing out the fallacy of arguing a point on the premise that, "well, someone else would do it too."

The illegality is core to that point that went sailing over your head. That point being that the merits or lack thereof stand on their own, and the whole "anyone else would do it" argument is meaningless.

	09-05-2003 21:44									#11
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quote: Originally posted by MichaeltheGreat Most of these countries have virtually nothing to trade with the US, unless they take China's place as sweatshop labor supplier of choice. Don't bore me with oil - there are no duties on oil, and it's a standard globally traded commodity, with prices set on open markets. Who buys whose oil is irrelevent, except wrt shipping costs. That's why we buy a lot from Nigeria, because it's closer and therefore cheaper to ship to US ports, not because there's a special deal on the oil or we like them.

What about the fact that a Free Trade Zone in the ME will improve the standard of living in the ME, which will reduce poverty and despair, which will make terrorism less popular.

After all, aren't commentators always saying:"Attacking the terrorist won't reduce terrorism, you have to reduce the causes of terrorism like poverty and economic despair"? Well, a Free Trade Zone could help reduce the economic despair that supposely contributes to terrorism.

If you want a peaceful ME, democracy and capitalism are the best ways of doing it.

	09-05-2003 21:47									#12
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If this free-trade thing didn't mean big bucks for MNC's, it wouldn't be happening; despite whatever possible positive effects it might have.

	09-05-2003 21:47									#13
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A ME trade zone is a good idea since it will boost the ME economy. The grinding poverty and lack of international exposure feeds the xenopobes and extremists.

	09-05-2003 21:52									#14
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quote: Originally posted by The diplomat What about the fact that a Free Trade Zone in the ME will improve the standard of living in the ME, which will reduce poverty and despair, which will make terrorism less popular. After all, aren't commentators always saying:"Attacking the terrorist won't reduce terrorism, you have to reduce the causes of terrorism like poverty and economic despair"? Well, a Free Trade Zone could help reduce the economic despair that supposely contributes to terrorism. If you want a peaceful ME, democracy and capitalism are the best ways of doing it.

Free trading is hardly the first step in development; in the absence of a viable industry, it could simply make its building more difficult or even impossible.

	09-05-2003 22:00									#15
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quote: Originally posted by Oerdin A ME trade zone is a good idea since it will boost the ME economy. The grinding poverty and lack of international exposure feeds the xenopobes and extremists.

What do the ME countries have to export besides oil now? In the eventuality that they might start some sort of industries, free trade ensures that these industries get crushed by transnational corporations.

	09-05-2003 22:03									#16
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quote: Originally posted by The diplomat What about the fact that a Free Trade Zone in the ME will improve the standard of living in the ME, which will reduce poverty and despair, which will make terrorism less popular.

If they have nothing substantially to trade except oil, which is already on a global free market (let's face it, the ME isn't known for being agricultural paradises or for their industrial productivity), then how will they be helped?

The economic problems with the ME aren't lack of wealth, it's the obscene concentration of that wealth in the hands of decadent oligopolies or autocracies.

The social problems aren't lack of access to Coca-Cola and Nike shoes, but deep-seated cultural collision between religious conservatives and traditionalists, who are appalled by the behavior of the western-enriched ruling elite.
[/quote]

quote: If you want a peaceful ME, democracy and capitalism are the best ways of doing it.

Democracy, maybe. We really don't want democratic fundamentalist governments, though. So democracy has to wait until there are fundamantel social changes.

Capitalism? Not in the current socio-economic structure. For capitalism to have any sort of popular benefit, all of a society has to have access to the benefits of a capitalist system. If you start out with a skewed system where most of the wealth, education, and privileges are already concentrated in the hands of a few, then capitalism is merely going to reinforce their advantage. The failure of socialism is that it pulls anyone successful down to the base level, the failure of capitalism is that once some people fall behind, the efficiencies of the capitalist system tend to accelerate the differences between winners and losers.

What is needed is substantial reinvestment of oil revenues into education, infrastructure, standard of living benefits, economic diversification, and meaningful employment opportunity. THEN, a transition to democratic and capitalist systems.

	09-05-2003 22:05									#17
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Free-trade in ME = more money for MNC's

UR is right: This will prevent domestic ME industries from growing.

	10-05-2003 02:47									#18
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quote: What do the ME countries have to export besides oil now? In the eventuality that they might start some sort of industries, free trade ensures that these industries get crushed by transnational corporations.

Which transnational corporations are going to be making tons by this? These people aren't going to be making any less than people in other free trade agreements that the US has set up. MNCs can easily go to Mexico or Jordan if they want to go somewhere to pay people less.

I think this can help the countries of the ME. It can get them more jobs and economic progress.

	10-05-2003 02:53									#19
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MTG: I agree currently the ME produces and trades nothing but oil, but, this has mostly to do with the statist policies which EVERY SINGLE ONE of these countries has prosued since independence. There was such market fragmintation and over regulation combined with crushing taxes that business just couldn't get off the ground nor did they have a market if they did.

This would solve the biggest part of the problem. It will force the ME to inact pro-growth policies which will improve the lives (and incomes) of the people. Of course these people may continue giving money to terrorists but at least there'd be fewer terrorists who have nothing to live for.

	10-05-2003 02:56									#20
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This is nice, though i think it may threaten the Israeli economy.


Already during the mid to late 90s Israeli firms, including high-tech were setting up shop in Egypt and Jordan. The Intifada put a stop to that.

When the middle easterns aren't busy exploding or blowing up each other, we are quite smart people.

	10-05-2003 03:03									#21
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Tariff free tradebetween these states and the US wpould not be too bad, but it would not be a huge aide either, specially for the states mentioned. Only Iraq has the basics of a more diversified economy, and even that is not that strong. It would make more sense to try to promote free trade among ME states, but that won;t happen anytime soon.

Egypt really would benefit more form this, but I fail to see it included.

	10-05-2003 03:04									#22
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If they have nothing substantially to trade except oil, which is already on a global free market (let's face it, the ME isn't known for being agricultural paradises or for their industrial productivity), then how will they be helped?

The Jordan free trade deal has been very successful in the short time that it has been in effect, even though as you point out Jordan offers approximately nothing of value.

In 1998, Jordan's exports to the US were $16 million. In 2002, $412 million, the vast majority of which is clothing products. This represents about 20% of all of Jordan's exports and is a 90% or so increase from 2001. IOW, at least one ME country is reaping immediate and large benefits from free trade with the United States.

Furthermore, they buy almost as much from us as we do from them. So both sides are winning in this arrangement.

Last edited by DanS on 10-05-2003 at 03:32

	10-05-2003 03:06									#23
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the biggest road block I see is the US will want Israel in on it and the fundies in all the Arab countries will go crazy. Remember to this day nearly all of the official state owned news agencies and school text books in the Arab world continue to poison children with facist filth and hate.

	10-05-2003 04:40									#24
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quote: Originally posted by DanS If they have nothing substantially to trade except oil, which is already on a global free market (let's face it, the ME isn't known for being agricultural paradises or for their industrial productivity), then how will they be helped? The Jordan free trade deal has been very successful in the short time that it has been in effect, even though as you point out Jordan offers approximately nothing of value. In 1998, Jordan's exports to the US were $16 million. In 2002, $412 million, the vast majority of which is clothing products. This represents about 20% of all of Jordan's exports and is a 90% or so increase from 2001. IOW, at least one ME country is reaping immediate and large benefits from free trade with the United States. Furthermore, they buy almost as much from us as we do from them. So both sides are winning in this arrangement.

Jordan is small and doesn't have oil. Clothing sweatshops aren't such an attractive option when you see your dictator/royal family hogging the lion's share of the 2 MM barrel a day oil trade.

	10-05-2003 07:15									#25
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quote: Originally posted by Imran Siddiqui quote: What do the ME countries have to export besides oil now? In the eventuality that they might start some sort of industries, free trade ensures that these industries get crushed by transnational corporations. Which transnational corporations are going to be making tons by this? These people aren't going to be making any less than people in other free trade agreements that the US has set up. MNCs can easily go to Mexico or Jordan if they want to go somewhere to pay people less.

TNC's make money by making goods in countries where costs are dirt cheap and sell in countries where living standards are high. So I don't see TNC's will be setting up shops in Middle East, or at least not in countries that have oil. They'd just dump the goods there, ensuring any competing local industries don't stand a chance at all.

quote: Originally posted by Imran Siddiqui I think this can help the countries of the ME. It can get them more jobs and economic progress.

The majority of countries "persuaded" by the World Bank and/or IMF to open up ended up with the short end of the shaft.

	10-05-2003 07:18									#26
	Re: Bush wants MidEast Free Trade Zone Increase the size of your Attachments

quote: Originally posted by The diplomat Bush wants MidEast Free Trade Zone

And I want a playboy bunny to give me a check for 1,000,000,000 then tell me im immortal.........they are both equally likley to occure.

	10-05-2003 08:01									#27
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quote: Originally posted by MichaeltheGreat What is needed is substantial reinvestment of oil revenues into education, infrastructure, standard of living benefits, economic diversification, and meaningful employment opportunity. THEN, a transition to democratic and capitalist systems.

We should invest in those things here in the US.

	10-05-2003 09:20									#28
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quote: TNC's make money by making goods in countries where costs are dirt cheap and sell in countries where living standards are high. So I don't see TNC's will be setting up shops in Middle East, or at least not in countries that have oil. They'd just dump the goods there, ensuring any competing local industries don't stand a chance at all.

There is one difference. Cost in the ME aren't dirt cheap and living standards aren't ridiculously high for most people. The absolute rich will be able to buy MNC products more cheaply, but how much will it be worth it for MNCs to ship products to areas where they won't make much at all?

After all, even the worst companies know you have to have people that can afford the goods they send into the market, and there is only so much the super-rich can buy.