14-05-2003 00:40									#1
	Evil Plan 3.0 (XP) Support Apolyton, buy GURPS/ Alpha Centauri

Ok, the last one was just a beta version, this time it's for real.

It's time again to gauge our diplomatic position in the continent, and think in terms of geo-strategy: how can kill us, who can't, who can we kill, who can we ally with to kill, who can ally to kill us, etc etc etc things are much more simple when you think in do-or-die terms.

So far we have knowledge of 4 civilizations in the continent. CFC, CDG, GCA and ourselves. We share a direct border with CDG, no one else. CDG and GCA share a border in the SW, CDG and CFC share border which is really just a landbridge, and CFC and GCA share a border down south which we do not know about, but can guess it to be much more than a landbridge.

With our relationship with CFC being decent we can safely assume for the moment CFC is not an important variable concerning our own security. However, that does not mean we cannot use them for our own good.

So, here's the scenario outlook:

WORST CASE SCENARIO

CDG alliance with GCA to take us out.

This is by far the worst case scenario which we will try to prepare for and avoid as much as possible as it implies we will be facing not one but two major military forces. I'm not saying that we would lose (i.e. get wiped out) but I see it very difficult for us to win. In any case GCA wins out because there will be no damage to its territory and will still not have gotten their GA even if they don't win. It will also be presumable that CDG will be able to defend itself better with GCA as an ally in case we end up counterattacking

Who gains most: CFC. They keep on growing and growing and growing. Also GCA, they suffer no territory damage, no GA triggered, and might get some spoils which might offset any economic damage.

Who gains less: Us. I see it extremely difficult to picture us "winning" (though not losing is most likely to happen). But we get our GA triggered, perhaps lose one or two (or more) cities and suffer an economic setback while CFC and GCA grow and grow...

How to prevent it: Improve relations and feed paranioa into GCA's mind that in reality CDG is after them and that they stand a lot to lose if they do attack. We should also seek to improve relations with CFC to perhaps motivate them to open up a Southern Front in case such an attack materializes. That might also serve to disrupt GCA's attack north and concentrate on the south. Against CDG alone we have much better chance.

BEST CASE SCENARIO

CDG attacks GCA with us supposedly "neutral"

This would be much better for us since we are not on the defensive. Our "loophole" in the CDG NAP allows us to intervene at will. This would be more than necessary as we cannot allow CDG to take out GCA permamently as it would give them far too much territory.

Who gains most: CFC. Again, staying at the sidelines is best. However, we stand to gain a lot too. We chose when and if to intervene. We can seriously wreck CDG's economic ability while their immortals are elsewhere. GCA will suffer damage, and hopefully we can annihilate CDG without suffereing damage of our own. That IMO compensates for the economic shock. Plus, if CFC's land isn't so big or so good, we might actually win more out of this than them.

Who gains less: CDG. They go bye-bye or at least cease to be a factor in the future. GCA also suffers damage. We would presumably time our intervention when GCA has received some damage so that both teams end up screwed up if they survive.

How to prevent it: Actually, the question is, how do we incite it?

OTHER POSSIBLE SCENARIO

GCA vs CFC

Less likely but possible. The GCA - CFC relationship is shaky from what we've heard. It would not be crazy to imagine CFC getting agressive and striking out from the south if they feel their north is secure. This is logical as if they don't fear their backs they might be more confident.

Who gains most: CFC. However, if CFC already has a big land, and get even more land, they may be more a threat. Plus, due to the geographical constraints of the continent, it would be VERY hard for either CDG or us to stop them. Depending on how much land they take, it could offset whatever economic disadvantage from war, and whatever advantage CDG or especially we might get from keeping on REXing

Who gains less: GCA. The lose land. That's about it. Everyone loses because it will make CFC much more powerful.

How to prevent it: The only way I see is to make them think that CDG or us will aid GCA... in practicall terms that is rather difficult ubt in a diplomatic sense might work...

	14-05-2003 00:55									#2
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Part II

What we can do

I see a major flaw in all of this, in that all of us have us in a reactive mindset. We are not dictating what is happening in the world, merely responding to it. That leaves us at a disadvantage. According to game theory, the person who starts a game, any ordered game will win if you assume a flawless strategy (we economists always make assumptions). So, therefore, by only being reactive, we are at the mercy of any team who doesn't screw up.

So, despite my misgivings about a reactive policy, I actually think that someone WILL screw up and that it is actually the best bet to lure other teams to do what we can, subtly and quietly. I would especially favor a CDG attack on GCA.

So, diplomats, start your engines. The best is yet to come

	14-05-2003 01:00									#3
	Support Apolyton, buy GURPS/ Alpha Centauri

BTW,

I GOT BANNED!!!!

yes, you can look here: http://www.apolyton.net/forums/show...5&pagenumber=16



And guess who is currently having a daiquiri with me here in Mingapulco? TRIP!!! Yes, Apolyton's Minister of War and it's Deputy Foreign Advisor are currently in a 48 hour vacation at Mingapulco, but we can still post in the private forums

	14-05-2003 03:02									#4
	Avatar Enlargement: We've got the solution

* Master Zen awaits comments...

	14-05-2003 03:24									#5
	Support Apolyton, buy Civilization III: Complete

I haven't followed the game very closely, but I love this type of analysis. I definitely think we should follow this type of realpolitik approach, basing policy (in a game) on good relations, and perceived "good" (or bad) intentions is for chumps.
Good work, when I get home I'll try to check out some saves, and think about it further.
Time to play Henry Kissinger.

Last edited by Randolph on 14-05-2003 at 03:33

	14-05-2003 04:46									#6
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My God, this is Mingapulco!

But on a serious note... sorry to hear of the bannings. Was it Ming's intent to allow you and Trip continued access to the private forums? If so, that was mighty gracious of him.

As to your scenarios, good work. It helps to review these things to crystalise impressions and intuitions. I know I have said many times, in many places, that CDG MUST be going to attack someone. That would still be my considered opinion IF they complete only this next settler in Elucidus and switch to units. We can keep our eyes open for this by calculating how fast they can build settlers and watching to see the cities popping up, factoring in some delay time for 1 unit between settlers.

I think one of us should track this.

	14-05-2003 04:54									#7
	Support Apolyton, buy Civilization III: Complete

quote: Originally posted by notyoueither My God, this is Mingapulco! But on a serious note... sorry to hear of the bannings. Was it Ming's intent to allow you and Trip continued access to the private forums? If so, that was mighty gracious of him.

Actually, I doubt it. I remember when the private forums were first started, there were some "glitches" with them, where MWIA could access all the PTWDG team forums because he was a mod at one forum. No doubt this is another "glitch," and I'm pretty sure that Ming doesn't know we can still post here.

	14-05-2003 05:14									#8
	Lose 30 kilos (of popups)

quote: Originally posted by notyoueither But on a serious note... sorry to hear of the bannings. Was it Ming's intent to allow you and Trip continued access to the private forums? If so, that was mighty gracious of him.

I truly, truly doubt that.

	14-05-2003 05:18									#9
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Uhhhh...

In that case, you guys might want to get some clarification if you don't want extended vacations. Seriously, this has the smell of things taken very seriously by the mods and owners and reacted to with extreme serverity.

	14-05-2003 16:26									#10
	Support Apolyton, buy Galactic Civilizations

I got a note from Mark that I am not to re-authorize the banned members until their 48 hours is up.

I feel like a school teacher.

"Trip and MZ - go sit in the corner and think about what you have done..."

(btw - what was it about the corner anyway?)

	14-05-2003 16:34									#11
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quote: Originally posted by BetaHound I got a note from Mark that I am not to re-authorize the banned members until their 48 hours is up. I feel like a school teacher. "Trip and MZ - go sit in the corner and think about what you have done..." (btw - what was it about the corner anyway?)

And what's wrong with feeling like a school teacher?

Hehehe.

And speaking AS a school teacher, the corner was a place where you were visually "cut off" and could not seek eye-contact-reinforcement from your peers and thereby gain approval for your bad behavior. It's also demoralizing for other troublemakers to see some poor schmoe hunched over in the corner, physically isolated as well.

Old trick, but it works just fine.

Now if you'll excuse me, I have to go get ready to teach some young'uns.

	15-05-2003 07:38									#12
	Support Apolyton, buy GURPS/ Alpha Centauri

quote: Originally posted by Fried-Psitalon And what's wrong with feeling like a school teacher? Hehehe. And speaking AS a school teacher, the corner was a place where you were visually "cut off" and could not seek eye-contact-reinforcement from your peers and thereby gain approval for your bad behavior. It's also demoralizing for other troublemakers to see some poor schmoe hunched over in the corner, physically isolated as well. Old trick, but it works just fine. Now if you'll excuse me, I have to go get ready to teach some young'uns.

FP - thanks! Have fun.