21-05-2003 21:57									#1
	"The Gap" Avatar Enlargement: We've got the solution

No, this isn't a thread about new-age fashion, this is serious business.

The issue is "the gap" between us acquiring Republic, and CDG acquiring Feudalism. All of our hard efforts will be for not if CDG gets Feudalism. Pikes are not fun guys to face, and even with Knights, the ratio of offense to defense is 4:6 instead of 3:4 for Swordsmen. And Knights are expensive kids.

So how big is the gap? Does it exist at all? Is it 60 turns? Why?

quote: Trip and F-P: The window between us reciveing Republic and CDG recieving Feudalisim is a wide one. Let me tell you why: CDG cannot research for diddly; they have crap land and crap city placement. Unless they had already been halfway or more towards Mathematics, I highly doubt they'll have it and Philosophy 25 tuns from now. CDG has nothing of value to trade for Technology; they cannot buy Techs. They are not set-up for it. When GCA gets to the Middle Ages, it will be after we have researched The Republic and possibly even after we have reached it ourselves. CFC doesn't want to trade with CDG or GCA. CDG's only viable trading partner after we aquire Philosophy from them is GCA. GCA knows that CDG will get a free tech and may be willing to trade the techs that CDG needs to get to the next Age, but I doubt that GCA will do so out of fear of a 'back-stab'; This is also considering that CDG won't have already attacked GCA by this time. Also consider that GCA will be far ahead of CDG at this time so as to rule out most trades. CDG has to aquire Currency(16), Constuction(20), CoL(10), CB(2), Mysticism(4), Polythesism(12), & HBR(5) before they can move on to the next Age. They will get CB from us for cash. They may get Mysticism(4) and Polythesim(12) from GCA for Mathematics(8) and Philosophy(8) but that is not a fair trade for GCA and we know how GCA can be (that would favor CDG by 4 points.) Let's just say that they get that deal anyways for arguments sake. That would mean that CDG would then have to get a total of 96 research points before they can advance to the next age. ~25 turns from now this will be their task. GCA is working towards Monarchy, so CDG gets no help there. Maybe afterwards, if CDG hasn't attacked GCA by then, then GCA can go for either Currency, Construction, or CoL. A total of 46 research points. While GCA is researching Monarchy CDG will likely be able to knock out 18 research points(~24 turns; again I'm being generous here), leaving them a total of 78 to get to the next Age. So 46 is what GCA needs and 78 is what CDG needs. How is CDG going to have anything to trade to GCA if GCA is so far ahead of them. The only chance CDG has is to then research a "biggie" and then trade it for lots of smaller techs. Lets say CDG goes for Construction next. It will take them ~40 turns for it because of their piss poor economy, but let's cut that down to 28 for sake of argument. So now CDG has only 58 (78-20) research points left to get. So they trade Construction(20) to GCA for, lets say 20 research points worth of tech(or so) from GCA. The CDG needs 38 and GCA needs 10 because during that time that CDG researched Construction, GCA researched Currency. So now CDG needs 38 and GCA needs 10. How many turns have gone by now since the begining? 77 turns have past and niether of them are in the Middle ages. GCA sill needs ~10 turns to get there and since CDG is still so far away, they have nothing left to research that GCA hasn't already done. So CDG cannot hope to possibly trade anything to GCA for those techs. Our window is rather large from when we aquire The Republic (~60-65 turns) to when even GCA will graduate to the Middle Ages (~90 turns). And believe you me, GCA will not help CDG reach that age anytime soon since CDG has nothing to offer for it. So, gentlemen, our "window" is ~25 turns at the very least, if you give every consideration to CDG in their ability to take what they have from their current situation and make good on it. What's more likely is that our "window" is much larger. Something like 50-60 turns. Main argument over; now some future stuff. If CDG hasn't attacked GCA by 50-90 turns from now (first I have a heart attack ); then CDG will not be able to do it once GCA gets to Feudalism. Then GCA will likely want to get to Chivaly to dipatch of CDG.

Response

quote: I think you're underestimating CDG's research potential, and CFC's impact here. Just because CFC has been having slight problems with GCA doesn't mean you should completely discount them. And CDG would have a higher research ability than us if they had the same number of cities and improvements. They have a river next to their capital. We don't. Next, as I've mentioned after this tech tier, CDG, GCA and us will all be at equal tech levels (who knows about CFC). There will be 3 techs left to get to the Medieval Age. We will have Code of Laws to research, so that's one of them. Then we have Republic. GCA will research Monarchy, which will probably take them slightly longer than us doing CoL. CDG will have nothing to research. You really don't think that they won't get the last 2 techs done while we're doing CoL + Republic? We will have 2 techs to research, and there will be 3 techs between the two of them left (one of which, Monarchy, isn't even needed to get to the next age). 30 turns from the end of this tech deal GCA will have Monarchy and be well into Currency, CDG will be done with or almost done with Construction, and we will be about halfway into Republic. Where is this 60 turn window you're talking about?

	21-05-2003 22:06									#2
	Remove this text

And here is another response... copied from the AltSp thread:

quote: Originally posted by Trip I think you're underestimating CDG's research potential, and CFC's impact here. Just because CFC has been having slight problems with GCA doesn't mean you should completely discount them. And CDG would have a higher research ability than us if they had the same number of cities and improvements. They have a river next to their capital. We don't.

Their capital is not going to be saving their day forever. The fact that they would be doing better now if playing differently sounds irrelevant to me.

quote: Next, as I've mentioned after this tech tier, CDG, GCA and us will all be at equal tech levels (who knows about CFC). There will be 3 techs left to get to the Medieval Age. We will have Code of Laws to research, so that's one of them. Then we have Republic. GCA will research Monarchy, which will probably take them slightly longer than us doing CoL. CDG will have nothing to research.

Underlined boldface added...

Beg your pardon? Monarchy (cost 24) slightly longer than CoL (cost 10)??? If at least twice as longer is "slightly", then yes... but it's not, so the rest of your reasoning is based upon a false assumption. Keep in mind that GCA is not industrious, so their rate of building terrain improvements is halved compared to ours (though they may have better terrain to start with, right).

Also, for CDG to research the "other" missing tech fast enough, they would have to research at high science rate... gathering little gold for upgrades... being unable to properly use their Feudalism.

quote: Where is this 60 turn window you're talking about?

This is a bit unfair... BigFree said that based upon his analysis, there should be a window of about ~25 turns, which I more or less agree with. And that is on condition that CDG does NOT attack GCA, that CDG will research at FULL or almost full speed, that nobody researches Literature etc. etc. If at least one of these conditions is not fulfilled, the window may extend big time.

	21-05-2003 22:16									#3
	Remove this text

Okay, I'm getting a bit annoyed. The "Do we attack CDG or not" thread has now jumped to three different locations, and all three are basically talking about the same thing; the discussion is merely proceeding from one point to the next.

WHY was this thread created? Can we please collapse it back into the CDG: Demise Now or Later thread? This is nothing but copy and paste so far, and since all we're talking about over in that thread right now is whether or not that gap exists and to what extent....

Maybe I'm in a foul mood because I'm a teacher and it's finals time, but could we keep the show tied into one location?

	22-05-2003 00:56									#4
	Support Apolyton, buy Civilization 2

Agreed. Let's continue the discussion in the existing threads.